New disturbance 90L entering the Caribbean Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 AM GMT on October 11, 2006

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased this evening in association with an area of disturbed weather a few hundered miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. A buoy about 150 miles north of the center of the disturbance has seen an increase in wind speed over the past 12 hours, and the winds tonight are now 30 mph with higher gusts. However, the pressure at this buoy is not falling. Unfortunately, winds from the QuikSCAT satellite are not available in the region tonight, and we will have to wait until about 9am EDT for another pass. We should also have wind reports from some of the islands Wednesday afternoon as the disturbance moves through.

Wind shear is a low 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots for the next three days over the Caribbean. This may allow the disturbance to develop. None of the computer models develop the disurbance yet, but that may change by morning.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Hawaii
Hawaii needs to continue watch an area of disturbed weather (now called 97C) near 9N, 163W, about 700 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Its thunderstorm activity has gotten better organized today, and system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Thursday. The system is currently under about 10 knots of winds shear, and is underneath an upper-level anticyclone. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. These are all very favorable conditions for development. SSTs stay above 26C all the way to Hawaii, and a landfalling hurricane in the islands is a possibility a week or so from now.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

I'll have an update by 10am EDT Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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329. weathermanwannabe
3:04 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Good Morning All....I've been too busy at work to interact this week, but, as to the Antilles Wave, I agree that only chance for development will be if it stays to the South (or it will get blown apart by shear).......As such, we have to see if the convection holds together and "persits" for another day or so South of P.R.....................It may be history in 24-48 hours otherwise....
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328. HCW
2:04 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Models shift west with 90L ?

Link
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327. Patrap
1:56 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Bac later..going out to watch the FEMA show a while..C-yall later...
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326. Patrap
1:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
I sprayed an Orange X on his stump..and they added Him to the List for free removal.Saved my neighbor 2 grand...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
325. Patrap
1:53 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Well,FEMAS next door.Cutting out neighbors Oak tree stump..yesterday they Managed to pull the water line up..but not break it.THey have crew of 10..for 1 tree..and they a clusterflob..LOL..Dont have the heart to take any pics.They might drop a tree on my trailer.LOL!
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324. kmanislander
1:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
heading out now but will bb later
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323. Patrap
1:51 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Okay..east end..I c now..The Old Biloxi Lighthouse..still remains...thats one tough lighthouse...Round better design.
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322. sandcrab39565
1:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Pascagoula beach and Ocean Springs Beach areas
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321. kmanislander
1:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
thelmores

if you look at my 11:51 and 11:55 posts earlier I referred to that low swirl you had circled.
IMO it is the remains of one of multiple swirls typical of very young systems and would have developed under heavy convection that was located in that area around 11pm last night
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320. Patrap
1:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
That looks like Beach road..where at?
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319. sandcrab39565
1:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
No I was with the DEQ hazmat person
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318. Patrap
1:47 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
OKay Crab..will notify when the Disk arrives.And thanks again for the E_mail stuff.Was that your truck the pics were shot from during the Storm?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
317. thelmores
1:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
thanks kman..... sometimes i get optomistic about circles and such...... LOL

seems like there is something spinning in that circle! :D


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316. kmanislander
1:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Pat

Tropical colors no less LOL
Like many of our buildings !!
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315. sandcrab39565
1:44 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Pat I sent an email with some Saints pics just a bit ago I have put 4 disks in the snail mail of Katrina and Saints and just some other stuff.
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314. Patrap
1:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Love them colors Kman..and the Flow..
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313. Patrap
1:41 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
I need mo coffee crab..will be expecting it..LOL..Thanks.
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312. Patrap
1:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
OKay Crab..Ill see now.
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311. Patrap
1:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
The Cold Pool ..heading South..Link
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310. kmanislander
1:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
here are the steering winds at the upper levels
of course the strength of the system will ultimately play a role in the track


Link
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309. sandcrab39565
1:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Regular mail Pat I just sent it
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308. sandcrab39565
1:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Thinks it will stay way south under thr Yucatan it would have to be a very bad one to move to the north and survive
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307. Patrap
1:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
REg mail or WU..Ive have neither crab..cept what u sent last night..Did u get my Street Addy?
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306. thelmores
1:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
seems to me that the models are pointing towards PR or southward..... but based upon the "current" location and extrap motion, looks PR or northward extrap to me.....
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304. KRL
1:36 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Looks like potential for westward bound and some further development.
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303. sandcrab39565
1:36 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Morning Rand how are ya?
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302. Patrap
1:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Evacuate Miami Now..avoid the rush..for 07...
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301. sandcrab39565
1:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Patrap mail
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299. Patrap
1:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
You right with that assesment Kman..good eyes .
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298. Miamiweather
1:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
hey hurricane23 how are the tropics doing should we be worried about 90L
297. kmanislander
1:34 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
thelmores

that is not the center.
It is under the convection immediately to the NE of Barbados. The QS pass confirms this as well as winds at Barbados
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296. sandcrab39565
1:34 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Good morning everyone
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295. Patrap
1:34 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Shear Madness...L0L
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294. kmanislander
1:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Hi Pat

The shear map says it has a chance for about 2 days. After that it will depend how the conditions in the E Caribbean evolve. Even a course to the W would be hostile by Friday if the shear down the road does not relax

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15822
292. thelmores
1:32 PM GMT on October 11, 2006


not sure if its shear, or sub-tropical, but seems the heavy convection is off to the w and wsw...... seperated from the center......

we'll have to see if we get some major convection near the center today..... if so.... seems we will have a TD on our hands!
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291. Patrap
1:31 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
No way its going to develop...Unless it goes Due west.And I dont see that ..at all..
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290. kmanislander
1:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Sorry, Barbados that is lol
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289. Patrap
1:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Poof !..will be its name..LOL
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287. kmanislander
1:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Barnados winds now SW. No question there is a circulation
Link
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286. Patrap
1:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
90L not going to be nothing.too much shear as it slips NW..to oblivion...
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285. thelmores
1:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
morning everybody! :)

seems 90L wants a name!



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284. Thundercloud01221991
1:20 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
The orange model looks like Ernesto
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283. helminator
1:15 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Any chance of this Invest 90 developing into something tropical????
282. weatherguy03
1:14 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Its disorganized, but the winds are pretty good to the NE of that small center. And that small center is near the burst of convection this morning. At least it makes it alittle more interesting today..LOL
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280. weatherguy03
1:10 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Very small and weak one though.
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279. weatherguy03
1:10 PM GMT on October 11, 2006
Ok. Latest QuikScat shows circulation center is near Barbados, not near that Low Level Swirl to the NE of the convection.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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