Hawaii and Mexico need to keep a wary weather eye

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on October 10, 2006

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It's an El Nino year in the Pacific, which means that Hawaii and the Pacific coast of Mexico are at increased risk of hurricane landfalls this month. Hawaii needs to watch an area of disturbed weather (now called 97C) near 9N, 165W, about 700 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Its thunderstorm activity is disorganized this morning, but 97C has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Thursday. The two latest runs of the GFDL model have brought 97C to hurricane status by early next week, with a northward track towards Hawaii. The system is currently under about 10 knots of winds shear, and is underneath an upper-level anticyclone. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. These are all very favorable conditions for development. SSTs stay above 26C all the way to Hawaii, and a landfalling hurricane in the islands is a possibility a week or so from now.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

Elsewhere in the tropics
A low pressure system a few hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina is non-tropical, and is not expected to become tropical as it moves northeast parallel to the coast. This system could bring heavy rain to Cape Cod and the Maritime provinces of Canada later this week. Some of the models are hinting that a low pressure system could form in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast early next week. If this storm forms, it could be non-tropical. The models are also forecasting the possibility of a hurricane forming along the Mexican Pacific coast early next week, and moving parallel to the coast towards Baja. However, the two current storms approaching Baja, Tropical Depression 16E and Tropical Storm Norman, are both expected to dissipate before reaching Baja, due to high wind shear and cool waters.

Jeff Masters

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350. Patrap
1:22 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
nothing but an Azores swirlie..in 6 days
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
349. sarepa
1:19 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
look at the big maP! it shows its objective projected pathLinkLink
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
348. StoryOfTheCane
1:19 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
347. Patrap
1:18 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Sundays Superdome storm with Excellent Audio..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
346. StoryOfTheCane
1:17 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
think it can survive the 20knots in the North Caribbean?
345. Patrap
1:16 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
OK sand..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
344. Patrap
1:15 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
That would have a chance if it was August or September..but it still has good overall Invest look..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
343. ProgressivePulse
1:15 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
90L = Things that make you go Hummmmmm!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
342. StoryOfTheCane
1:15 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
im seeing circulation at 12N 55W
341. sandcrab39565
1:14 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Patrap gonna send ya some other photos be back in a bit
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
340. StoryOfTheCane
1:12 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
339. Patrap
1:11 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
..19ft water rise in 40minutes..was awesome
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
338. Patrap
1:10 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
The locals running story on PBS..awesome..simply awesome sandcrab...views fromVenice & St Bernard
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
336. Patrap
1:09 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
.It was A Beautiful Day!.......dont let it get away!.......
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
335. sandcrab39565
1:09 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Patrap, will start sending photos tommorow left the disk on my desk. sorry
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
334. Patrap
1:08 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
.See Gentilly..and Lakeview...The crescent City ..Right in front of You..Birds sang in Broken trees...The coming home to New ORleans..Lower Ninth will rise again..Above the waters of Lake Pontchatrain...See the Bird with the Leaf in Her Mouth...After the Flood..All the Colors came Out!.....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
333. Patrap
1:03 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
..FAll ..is Coming..The Fall..is Coming.!...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
332. sarepa
1:03 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
michel my wrong
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
331. Patrap
1:02 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
..there is a House...In New Orleans..They Call...The Superdome..And its been the ruin..a many poor boy..and God..I know..Im..one...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
328. sarepa
12:53 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
my bad is wrong
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
327. sarepa
12:52 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
guys 90l isnt a threat to any land lookLink
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
326. Patrap
12:52 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Xtrap points.. West
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
325. Patrap
12:51 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
no wobbles in that Xtrap..Model,.Snickers..Ackk..Giggle,,shhhh!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
324. Patrap
12:50 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
This guy is Feeling it..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
322. Tazmanian
12:44 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
the runs for 90L are in we need to watch this 90L
lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
321. SLU
12:40 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
if 90L develops into anything it will likely be a very short-lived tropical cyclone if the weather pattern in the Western Atlantic doesnt change.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
320. Patrap
12:40 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
C
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
319. Patrap
12:37 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
This is a bigger punch and WILL win..come Thurs-FridayLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
317. ProgressivePulse
12:27 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Where it is and where it is going! Hence the Ahead Comment!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
316. ProgressivePulse
12:27 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Pretty deep convection more concentrated around the center! Seeing greys popping up!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
314. ProgressivePulse
12:25 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Mountain of Shear ahead!

I am just interested to see where the invest models take it, lol! GFS shows whatever going North of the islands, Sure Death!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
313. rapidintensification
12:17 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Sure as a chitty twister...it is now on the Navy weather site as 90L...season's not over yet STORMPOT!
312. SLU
12:16 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
invest 90L 12.8n 57.5w , 20kts

reasonably close to my estimate of 12.9n 56.2w
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
311. SLU
12:14 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
lol
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
310. ProgressivePulse
12:13 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
I will answer that! The one I just refreshed, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
309. ProgressivePulse
12:12 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Which Navy site are you at lol?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
308. ProgressivePulse
12:11 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Nothing much on the scatt for the CATL wave
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
307. SLU
12:11 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
YEP!

the NAVY site has just upgraded the wave to INVEST 90L!

more info to come .....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
306. SLU
12:08 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
Invest 90L later tonight? .... anyone?

I can see a circulation near 12.9n 56.2w near the deep convection but i'm not sure if it's at the surface or in the mid-levels.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
305. WPBHurricane05
12:03 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
see y'all later
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
304. GoofOff
12:01 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
"Posted By: thelmores at 7:47 PM EDT on October 10, 2006.

seems we have some "disturbed" weather near the islands......"

We have also had our share of disturbed bloggers. Have to admit they were much more entertaining than the weather. LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
303. WPBHurricane05
12:00 AM GMT on October 11, 2006
i saw that image ron, lol, and a while back at 2am, i was lurking and you posted one right over my house!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
302. thelmores
11:47 PM GMT on October 10, 2006


evening all..... season growing very near an end, if not already....

seems we have some "disturbed" weather near the islands......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
301. ProgressivePulse
11:40 PM GMT on October 10, 2006
I tell ya what!

<~~ on the fence about CATL
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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