Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on October 08, 2006

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. An area of thunderstorms off the coast of South Carolina is due to an upper level low pressure system. This system is under only 10 knots of wind shear, but will not be around long enough to develop into a tropical depression. Strong westerly winds will carry the disurbance out to sea over cooler waters over the next few days.

An area of disturbed weather over the eastern Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough. Wind shear is extremely high--40 knots--and this disurbance will not develop.

The models are not predicting any tropical storm formation this week.

It's an El Nino year quiet time in the Atlantic, so enjoy another quiet Sunday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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265. 1900hurricane
2:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
New Blog!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
264. Patrap
2:07 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
This front and cold push isnt going to have much time period..to modify.This is way early...push from the Artic..but ill take it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
263. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
bad luck..sometime ya can...I go to google to back door in..but the link gets spyed ..and kicked sometimes micheal..You cant bookmark it and reload..got to get it fresh!..Like tomatoes..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
262. 1900hurricane
2:03 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Or this?

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
261. 1900hurricane
2:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
What are the chances of something like this forming this year?

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
259. Patrap
1:58 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
The Global NoGaps..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
258. Patrap
1:57 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Heres the local met office take on it..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
257. Patrap
1:52 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
..nothing tropical.But the Cold push promises to kick up a wicked Squall line..where it maxes out ..is the key...Its going to be fast,furious..and almost winterlike..come Thurs-Fri..in the Jet Stream.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
256. Gatorx
1:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Maybe I will see you there one weekend...we try to go when we get over to Tampa to visit my son...have a good day...have to get ready for a boring meeting...bye all
255. Patrap
1:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
A new week ..a new season coming.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
254. nash28
1:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
As far as I know, it is year round.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
253. Gatorx
1:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Is the exhibit on-going year round or only seasonal?
252. 1900hurricane
1:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Another Pacific storm that affected the US

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
251. nash28
1:44 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Yeah, I am going to volunteer to host the exibit on occasion. I am really excited about it.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
250. Gatorx
1:43 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Nash-
I think I read this weekend that you are going to teach at MOSI? Thats cool...we were there in late August trying to see a movie in the IMAX....was a mob scene...could not get tickets...my 13 year old loves it....she's my science geek who wants to be a meterologist...has a crush on Weather456...likes his graphics..lol
249. 1900hurricane
1:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
In other news, a TD has developed in the W. Pac.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
248. Gatorx
1:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Michael-
Are you trying to make me look bad? lol
246. 1900hurricane
1:37 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
I think I fixed my blog, so if you want to come over and look at it, go right ahead!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
245. Gatorx
1:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
I know Nash..I don't think there is a prayer of anything else this season..not that I am wishing or anything.
244. 1900hurricane
1:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
GFS loop
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
243. Gatorx
1:33 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Michael - As usual you are correct sir...you have had nasty weather this month...I have hardly had a drop of rain the last two weeks and do not think we even had a tornado watch here the whole summer...strange.
242. nash28
1:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Wind shear ALL OVER the Atlantic is obscene! Nothing has a chance.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
241. StoryOfTheCane
1:32 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
240. 1900hurricane
1:32 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 7:37 AM CDT on October 09, 2006.

When was the last time an Atlantic Hurricane Season didn't have a catagory 4 or 5?


1997 hurricane season.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
239. StoryOfTheCane
1:31 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
237. Gatorx
1:30 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Michael-
I call that a blob not worth watching...too far away....smarty pants.
236. 1900hurricane
1:26 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
That's in the E. Pac! They don't count!
: )
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
234. 1900hurricane
1:19 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Posted By: Gatorx at 8:15 AM CDT on October 09, 2006.

Good Morning everyone.....not a blob in sight....sigh


Oh ya? What do you call that...oh, wait...Never mind. You're right.

North Atlantic Loop
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
233. nash28
1:19 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Good morning Gator. Yes, the ankle is much better.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
232. Gatorx
1:18 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Hey Nash....you doing OK with your ankle??
231. Gatorx
1:15 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Good Morning everyone.....not a blob in sight....sigh
229. 1900hurricane
12:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
I think I fixed my blog, so if you want to come over and look at it, go right ahead!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
227. warehousecreek
12:39 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
21N71W
We just went to your Islands in August....
Husband and 11 Yr old daughter dove and I snorkeled
most beautiful water we have ever seen
too bad the developers have discovered you!
226. 1900hurricane
12:37 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
When was the last time an Atlantic Hurricane Season didn't have a catagory 4 or 5?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
225. IADCW
12:10 PM GMT on October 09, 2006
Got to say this about North Korea. Bush called Iraq, Iran and N.Korea the axis of evil after the 9/11 attacks. 1st invaded Afghanistan. Next invaded Iraq. Never any military action in Iran because Russia and China(they have nukes) didnt like the idea. AND no military action against N.Korea because they have nukes.
U.S. has the most powerful military in the world but it is spread thin and not used to WIN wars.

I dont expect any military action against the rest of the 'Axis of Evil' because Bush is not that stupid
223. nash28
11:42 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
Morning everyone.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
222. 21N71W
11:33 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
Morning from the Turks and Caicos !
Well after I told you all it was raining , thunder, and lightning around 8pm last night I was woken up around 1 am by gusts of winds so strong I thought the house would come down, Happened twice and then all subsided.... very weird..
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
221. 1900hurricane
11:18 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
Hey Y'all!

Has anyone seen this?

I'm not liking that one bit...
: (
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
220. CybrTeddy
11:08 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:24 AM GMT on October 09, 2006.

CybrTeddy, El Nino forecasts say that El Nino may get up to three times stronger than it is
now:

Yes but notic the Decline afterwords
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24163
219. hurricane23
10:19 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
Good early morning to everyone....

Just looking across the atlantic and from what iam seeing the entire basin is not favorable for any development. Not every October has a storm and this October may well fit that category were upper-level winds just will not allow for any development to take place.Global models do show a vigorous upper low and its surface reflection near the southeast coast drifting out into the atlantic and northeast. right now i think its unlikely that it can make its way down to the surface as there way too much shear in that area.Also global models are showing a sort of pre-frontal wave disturbance in the western gulf later next week, which like everything else should be dealing with too much shear to do anything.Were just going to have to see what happens when the MJO pulse moves in.It would not surprise me if we dont see anymore activity for the rest of the season.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
218. LowerCal
7:20 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
Thanks cowboy, you too.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9187
217. moonlightcowboy
7:11 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
...lol, LowCal, have a good sleep...turning in myself. Have a good week.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
216. LowerCal
7:09 AM GMT on October 09, 2006
LMAO for real cowboy! Great stuff!

Too bad I have to bed down :-(
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9187

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.