Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
An area of disturbed weather (99L) near 35N, 67W, about 200 miles north-northwest of Bermuda, remains disorganized, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled for today was canceled. Radar animation from Bermuda shows just a few disorganized showers over the waters near the island. QuikSCAT satellite winds from this morning show a well-defined surface circulation, but top winds of only 20-25 mph near the center. The system is expected to move eastward over the open Atlantic.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather over the southern Gulf of Mexico has diminished, and is no longer a threat to develop. A new area of disturbed weather has formed in the western Caribbean just north of Honduras. This disturbance is under 20-30 knots of wind shear, so is not a threat to develop today. The disturbance may bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Sunday as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. On Monday, wind shear may drop below 20 knots over the western Caribbean and extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. If today's disturbance is still around then, it may be able to take advantage of the lower shear and show some slow development. However, the models are less aggressive about their forecast of low shear over the Caribbean, and I expect that wind shear will be too high to allow any tropical storms to develop over the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this week. We will need to keep an eye on the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda this week, though--several of the models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in this region by Tuesday, and such a low could turn into a tropical or subtropical storm.
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