Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on October 07, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather (99L) near 35N, 67W, about 200 miles north-northwest of Bermuda, remains disorganized, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled for today was canceled. Radar animation from Bermuda shows just a few disorganized showers over the waters near the island. QuikSCAT satellite winds from this morning show a well-defined surface circulation, but top winds of only 20-25 mph near the center. The system is expected to move eastward over the open Atlantic.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather over the southern Gulf of Mexico has diminished, and is no longer a threat to develop. A new area of disturbed weather has formed in the western Caribbean just north of Honduras. This disturbance is under 20-30 knots of wind shear, so is not a threat to develop today. The disturbance may bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Sunday as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. On Monday, wind shear may drop below 20 knots over the western Caribbean and extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. If today's disturbance is still around then, it may be able to take advantage of the lower shear and show some slow development. However, the models are less aggressive about their forecast of low shear over the Caribbean, and I expect that wind shear will be too high to allow any tropical storms to develop over the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this week. We will need to keep an eye on the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda this week, though--several of the models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in this region by Tuesday, and such a low could turn into a tropical or subtropical storm.

Jeff Masters

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485. Patrap
4:18 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
45 minutes to Kickoff...Grits to Beer in 1 hour..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
484. Patrap
4:15 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
..Yesterday,,they backed off alittle late ..on the push..but now ..its like,,break out the mittens and sleep with the Kittens!..This is gonna be a wild 24 hr ride..Hot..to still..to T-storms..to Noreaster..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
483. WPBHurricane05
4:01 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
I betcha the winds are gonna be brutal up their in NO, down here is S. Florida we are expecting 60's (no not highs lows).
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
482. Melagoo
3:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Thursday will be quite balmy at first. Once the cold front
passes...north winds will advect strong cold air through the
region causing temperatures to quickly fall from the middle 80s to the upper
50s within about 4 hours. Timing of the front will be somewhat
easy...it should be entering northern la by Thursday morning and moving
into the btr area by 10 to 11am.


Hey Patrap - Look for some horrible weather 30 temp drop in 4 hours yikes .... batten down the hatches!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1607
481. 0741
3:24 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
their new area east of bahamas too
479. SWLAStormFanatic
3:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Pat, I can't wait for the Arctic Express!
478. stormchasher
3:13 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Hey WPB why do they even mention it. Really!!
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
477. Chicklit
3:11 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Thanks, WPB. Is it supposed to go east?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
476. WPBHurricane05
3:11 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
non-tropical upper-level

o well, season over
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
475. WPBHurricane05
3:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Chicklit that was/is a Nor'easter, should make its way back in the water today or tomorrow i believe.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
474. stormchasher
3:09 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Showers and thunderstorms within a couple hundred miles of the coast
of South Carolina are associated with a non-tropical upper-level
area of low pressure. Tropical storm formation is not expected
here or elsewhere through Monday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin


HUH and WHat!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
473. Chicklit
3:07 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Link
Interesting system floating south from Carolinas into Georgia. Wonder if it will a) make it over the water b) make it to Central Florida. Any idea?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
472. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
This is nuts..crazy ...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
471. Patrap
3:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Docs Posting imminent.I can feel the hands getting ready..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
470. WPBHurricane05
2:56 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
oh @#$% there is going to be a halloween this year..what to tell the kids when i'm not ready...um were sleeping??
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
469. WPBHurricane05
2:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Miami @ NE
NE 35
Miami 3
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
468. Patrap
2:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
FEMA took out a trailer down 2 doors this am..renovations..complete..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
467. stormchasher
2:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Bye Rand!!
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
466. reelbull
2:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
the NK fuse guy...yup, real underpaid...infared will eat him before his paycheck clears the PoyangMart....what would Jaws sound like NK style..a kerioki...sp....twist....

I was watching PBS about volcano eruptions...now those you can track...infared cloud tops of dust....humm....

ah so to ah sheeeet...ah hail of cruise missles too....gotta make some dust that can been seen on upper air sat...and would you see a quick drop in water vapor? rbull
465. Patrap
2:52 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Need to decorate the FEMA trailer..today for Halloween..but maybe should hold off..till the GFS clears the way...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
463. Patrap
2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
I like candy corn..and Wax lips..and those smarties..when trick or stealing kids..I mean treating...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
462. CybrTeddy
2:49 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Patrap
lol
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
460. Patrap
2:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
GFS sniffing like a bloodhound..a critical week..or bust..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
459. reelbull
2:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Assuming...just assuming NK's test is not perfectly sealed from the ambient surface of the earth, there would be a leak. Immediate impact on the surface weather ...winds, heat, dew point, melt point...anything one could see via public domain weather technology...there is no video cam at the local bar nearby for human intel analysis...like short people running like hell upwind....unless enouugh dust could get kicked up...enough to be picked up by sat as Cape Verde dust is picked up....

just a thought as we wait for some convection closer to home....rbull
457. Patrap
2:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
wouldnt want to be the N Korean guy who runs out and lites the Fuse for the Missle test..he way underpaid..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
456. Skyepony (Mod)
2:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
The 00Z nogaps is calling for possible TDs out of the WC blob & the C Atlantic wave.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
455. Patrap
2:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Wake up & post Rand..back away from the Waffle..and no more Butter!...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
454. stormchasher
2:43 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Is Dr.Masters gonna blog at 11??
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
453. Patrap
2:42 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
We need a lil Jaws music with the Infrared animation...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
452. sebastianjer
2:39 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Are North Koreans 10 miles downwind considered public domain?
JER
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
451. stormchasher
2:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Ok no wow this time Link
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
450. CybrTeddy
2:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
good morning
hey what if they made a Hurricane Katrina movie
but is not all about NO it shows Katrina from
TD-10 to Extratropical over the USA
showing not just NO but Missipi and the aftermath with showing the incident in incredibley accurate and exciting
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
449. reelbull
2:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
If North Korea were conduct an underground nuclear test, would there be any atmospheric measurement or view in public domain?

Just something to think aobut between more coffe and kickoff....

reelbull
447. sebastianjer
2:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Bucs+ No QB+ No OF-Reggie = NO Chance
JER
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
446. Skyepony (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
ryang~ increased there too. Yesterday that area was no higher than a dark purple.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
445. Patrap
2:34 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Carribean getting the Curvy look to it..Kinda like when Shakira wakes up...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
444. Patrap
2:32 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
likes Jers 28n...9w..numbers
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
443. Patrap
2:32 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Weather inside Dome at Noon..cst..Scatterd Chaos..and Woo-hooing in between Beer swigs and nacho gnashing..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
442. sebastianjer
2:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
What's going on today?

Saints 28- Bucs 9

JER
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
441. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Superdome inside..70degrees currently..Outside...73F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
440. 1900hurricane
2:29 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
What's going on today?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
439. SWLAStormFanatic
2:29 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Good morning 1900.
438. Patrap
2:28 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
er..2hrs..35 min to Kickoff!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
437. Patrap
2:27 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Hello 1900
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
435. 1900hurricane
2:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2006
Hello
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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