New disturbance 99L near Bermuda headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather near 30N, 70W, about 300 miles southwest of Bermuda, has been designated "Invest 99L" by the National Hurricane Center this morning. Radar animation from Bermuda shows a large area of heavy rain over the ocean to the east of the island. This area of disturbed weather is moving to the north-northeast, and is expected to turn eastward this weekend. Some of 99L's heavy thunderstorms may affect Bermuda tonight and Saturday. The QuikSCAT satellite pass at 6:15am EDT this morning found a large, well-defined surface circulation, and peak winds in the 20-25 mph range. The disturbance is under 30 knots of wind shear from strong upper-level westerly winds. This shear is preventing heavy thunderstorms from building on the west side of 99L. Wind shear is expected to be in the 20-40 knot range for the next two days. The disturbance is over warm waters of 28 degrees C, but water temperatures cool rapidly to 26C just north of Bermuda. Between the wind shear and cooler waters, I doubt 99L has time to organize into a tropical or subtropical depression.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "99L".

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southern Gulf of Mexico, but is not expected to develop due to 20 knots of wind shear. High wind shear dominates most of the rest of the tropical Atlantic. This shear is forecast to relax early next week over the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, so we'll have to keep an eye on these regions next week.

Jeff Masters

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753. hurricane23
3:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Patrap shear levels next week across the caribbean are forcast to drop very low which might allow for some development to take place across the caribbean.This season is unique in that we are seeing that hurricanes require more than just warm water, convection, and low shear. Water temperatures alone do not dictate what will happen.2005 was a season that saw near perfect conditions for hurricane development.I suspect we might get something trying to bubble up in the western caribbean or GOM with the MJO pulse moving in next week.

Iam really happy we did not see any significant tropical system make landfall in the U.S. this season cause we all needed a break from all the devastation the past 2 seasons.I truly hope everyone has a great holiday season and my prayers go out to those still trying to put there lives back together in the gulf coast. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
752. 1900hurricane
3:10 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
751. kmanislander
3:08 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
pat

the vis loop of the Caribbean is hinting at a rotation just E of Roatan but its impossible to tell at what level
There is also the start of a "hook" signature to the cloud field
The GHCC close up vis shows it well near 16 N 85W. Here's the vis loop. Try the zoom

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
750. SWLAStormFanatic
3:08 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
See Louisiana in green and brown
See Venice right in front of you
See the bayous broken by cloud
See the shrimp fleets clearing the Gulf out
See the creole fires at night
See the oil fields at first light
And see the bird with a leaf in her mouth
After the flood all the colors came out

It was a beautiful Day!
749. stormaddict
3:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
thanks Kman & Patrap
748. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Weds thru Sat should be a wild & wooly ride across the Middle & Eastern US ...big time..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
747. Patrap
3:04 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
thats trouble for someone 160knts ..with T-storms lifting ahead of it..Twister threat there ..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
746. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
..I see this to be good..great and welcome relief toLink get the GOM ssts down..1..degree or more late next week..but will it eject something towards Fla. in the process?...a Forecasting dilemma...lets digest this a while and give some scenarios..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
745. kmanislander
3:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
There will be pockets of low shear from time to time but the pattern is for overall increasing shear for the rest of the season.
My guess is that there is about 2 weeks left to the 06 hurricane season
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
744. kmanislander
2:56 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
hi stormaddict

took a coffee break
The shear is forecasted to be low in the Caribbean next week. Dr M posted maps a couple of days ago showing this
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743. Patrap
2:54 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
itsa big smile in the water vapor..
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742. hurricane23
2:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Good morning,

Takeing a look at watervapor imagery over southflorida and its incredible the dry airmass that is currently over the entire state.Expect a picture perfect weekend with rain chances extremely low and nothing to worry about across the tropics. Adrian

Here is Water Vapor pic showing the dry-air currently over florida.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
741. Patrap
2:47 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
...See the Bird with the Leaf in Her mouth..after The Flood ..all the Colors came out!.....and It was a beautiful day...Dont let it get away..!...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
740. Patrap
2:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Shear will come & go..but the Fronts will be stronger ..each sucessive pass..and the West to Sw flow in front of them..should keep anything in check,..and out to sea..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
739. stormaddict
2:42 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Kman & Patrap is the shear is expected to cont in the carb through-out Oct or is it forecasted to weaken?
738. Skyepony (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
See ya'll finally respectin my Caribbean blob with some pics...lol. Not bad for 1 1/2 days of existence. Somthing interesting from the local..
SOME VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN WRT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG NE GULF COAST WITH THE 00Z RUN GFS NOT INDICATING
THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS N FL WHILE EARLIER RUNS DID. IN ANY
EVENT...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY BUT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
LINE OF POTENT STORMS EXISTS FOR THURS/THURS NIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DROPS TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

LONG TERM....GLITTO
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39457
737. CybrTeddy
2:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2006



This is the 1991 Hurricane 8 "The Perfact Storm"
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
736. Patrap
2:27 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Gale Force winds over the GOM..come next Thursday..and nothing from the caribean going to Hit anywhere in US with the flow in front of that Cold Push..period...
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735. kmanislander
2:25 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
bb soon
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734. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Heres the Gulf Coast Big picture ..thru next week with Linka COLD push coming..the seasons coolest by far..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
733. tornadodude
2:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Good morning everyone. 52 degrees, pressure 30.41^, clear, light east wind. its a nice Oct. day!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
732. kmanislander
2:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
lets try that again
Link
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731. Patrap
2:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
..I see no threats thru next Weds...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
730. CybrTeddy
2:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 1:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2006.

No Teddy, in the Perfect Storm scenario, the combined or teamed up to make a hybrid system. Grace was already a hurricane coming up from the tropics.

Are you hoping that this nor'easter becomes a hurricane so you can fly it?


No. I just wanted to know if it was possible.
Personal i wouldent mind waiting intill Next Year to go into a hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
729. Patrap
2:21 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
..Im sure Fla will be there come next Friday...
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728. kmanislander
2:20 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
really cold cloud tops showing up now near 17 N 84 W

Link
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727. Patrap
2:20 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
.we aint Skeered..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
726. SFlHurricane06
2:18 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Good bet we have a Caribbean tropical cyclone next week. No, the season is NOT over yet. I still feel South Florida is at the greatest risk as we head into the middle of this month. El Nino years have been known to produce some strong October storms in the Carib.
Member Since: September 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
725. Patrap
2:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Googles video style pageLink
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724. kmanislander
2:16 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
here you go.

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
723. Patrap
2:15 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
..they should..good product that is used by millions daily...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
722. kmanislander
2:14 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
pat

did you see that Google is thinking of buying you tube for 1.6 billion !
wish I could do a start up like that lol
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720. Patrap
2:11 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
I c..thats significant ..let see how it goes in 12hrs...
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719. kmanislander
2:08 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Hi Pat

I jus checked some CA obs
Roatan has E winds @ 14 mph
Puerto Cabesas which is on the coast of Nicaragua near to the border with Honduras and to the SE of Roatan has a SW wind @ 5 mph !

Very suggestive of a circulation developing in the blob. The QS pass unfortunately missed it
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718. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
BOC buoy..this am..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
717. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
JB says the Great Red Spot on Jupiter trending west too..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
714. SWLAStormFanatic
1:58 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Pat, "Mrs Fanatic" wants to know, "What's That?"
713. sarepa
1:57 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
my cousin has accuweather profecional and he has joebastardi and bastardi told him that "the thunderstorms over the laser antilles has a chance for devlopment" as shear relax
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
712. SWLAStormFanatic
1:56 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Pat, just saw Caveman going through the airport. Maybe he's going bye-bye!
710. kmanislander
1:53 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
here's the shear map
Nothing will be coming N out of the Caribbean anytime soon

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
709. kmanislander
1:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
good morning all

the Caribbean blob is looking very interesting and the WV loop shows 2 things. First, that a high is building over it. Second, that there is a ton of shear just N of Cuba.

If this thing develops it cannot go N. More like ENE across the Caribbean.Looks like Nov conditions

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
708. WPBHurricane05
1:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
LoL thelmores!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
707. thelmores
1:39 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
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706. thelmores
1:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
i guess the answer is "maybe"? LOL
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705. WPBHurricane05
1:36 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
sorry teddy but I think you are gonna have to wait till next year for your fight, the season is over
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704. WPBHurricane05
1:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
703. thelmores
1:31 PM GMT on October 07, 2006
hmmm.... could 99L do a loop out in the CATL? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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