Dr. Bill Gray's final 2006 forecast issued

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on October 04, 2006

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The computer models are indicating some development is possible early next week in the region between the Bahamas and Bermuda, but this is likely to be extratropical in nature.

Latest hurricane forecast by Dr. Bill Gray
The final 2006 seasonal forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season by the Colorado State University team led by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach was issued yesterday. The new forecast calls for two named storms in October, one of which is a hurricane, which is not expected to be intense. Gray's team forecasts no named storms for November, noting that November tropical cyclones are rare in the Atlantic during El Niņo events. The average level of October activity is 1.6 named storms and 1.1 hurricanes. These averages decline by about 1/3 in El Niņo years, to 1.3 named storms and 0.7 hurricanes. No intense (or major) hurricanes have been observed to form after 1 October in El Niņo years since 1950. Dr Gray's team gives the following odds for landfalls along the U.S. coast in October 2006:

Named storm: 22%
Hurricane: 14%
Intense hurricane: 4%

The average probabilities of landfalling October tropical cyclones in the U.S. the past 52 years looked like this:

Named storm: 29%
Hurricane: 15%
Intense hurricane: 6%

The authors note that the failure of the El Niņo prediction models to properly forecast the rapidly developing El Niņo event this year was a major reason why their earlier hurricane forecasts were inaccurate. August-September 2006 sea surface temperatures in Equatorial Eastern Pacific warmed by approximately 0.6ēC from their June-July values, which is the greatest increase ever observed in a year that wasn't already seeing an El Niņo event (the increase was 0.9ēC during strongest El Niņo on record, in 1997; however, 1997 was already a strong El Niņo event by the beginning of the summer).

I posted my October hurricane outlook yesterday, which calls for just one named storm for the Atlantic the remainder of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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490. thelmores
1:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
looking at that shear map..... doesnt seem to many many areas that ARE conducive! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
489. stormaddict
1:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
new blog up
488. WSI
1:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
"None of the big dogs are talking about that area..... Whats up?"


The NHC mentioned the Gulf this morning....

"A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT"


Shear is way too high.

487. thelmores
1:48 PM GMT on October 05, 2006


hopefully Dr. Masters will have the "skinny" on this..... :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
486. thelmores
1:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
looks like 20mph+ sustained winds SSE of sabine..... but no indication of any pressure drop in that area....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
485. weatherboyfsu
1:37 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Good morning.......

My sentiments exactly..........

None of the big dogs are talking about that area..... Whats up?

I need to watch this area this time of year...Florida is in the bulls eye for this area if it develops.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
484. thelmores
1:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
mornin everybody! :)

whats that "brewing" in the GOM??

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
483. PensacolaDoug
1:26 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
saddle
you be nice in Ft Walton by grandkids are there



Honk as you pass P'cola.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
482. alaema
1:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
saddle
you be nice in Ft Walton by grandkids are there
481. saddlegait
1:13 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Thanks Patrap...looks good on the weather front...
480. Patrap
1:10 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Heres saddlegaits vacation forecast from the Met locally..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
479. saddlegait
1:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Packed it already - actually the two dark complected smart a...s packed it for me so I wouldn't forget! They were mumbling something about sitting close to me on the beach to catch the extra rays from the reflections!
478. Patrap
1:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
..Saddlegait..is okay..Front to push thru the panhandle to give ya a good buffer..Remember Bail & sunscreen..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
477. nash28
1:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
LOL Patrap!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
476. saddlegait
1:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
All right guys...tomorrow's the big blast off of the saddle families vacation...little fillie and stud already have the car packed, washed, gassed up and ready to go...of course, me, being the only one not homeschooled or self-employed am stuck here today (not on the blog but at work doing payroll). I FORBID any bad weather to form anywhere NEAR Ft. Walton Beach in the next 72 hours and I apologize in advance to the residents of Ft. Walton Beach for the devastating effects that may result from the saddles being on the loose!
475. Patrap
1:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
..the Blogs are up and freaky this am...."Ill have the roast duck..with the mango salsa.".!..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
474. SWLAStormFanatic
12:39 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Pat, mail
471. Skyepony (Mod)
12:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
I hear ya patrap. Been sitting in a spot where the steering gradent is wide & certainly looks like some festering has begun. The local NWS sure seem more concerned than the NHC.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
470. Patrap
12:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
This thing is festering 48 now..and is in good situ to stay put ..and fester some more...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
469. Patrap
12:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
The wave axis seem to be on or Linknear the Mexican coast..with the bulk of convection..still festering..in the BOC...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
468. Skyepony (Mod)
12:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
21N71W...interesting, your pressure has dropped off since lastnight.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
467. Skyepony (Mod)
12:21 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
I was checking out the NWS local (MLB) as well. Here's the BB part.

SAT...INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS THE GFS HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER
SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SC COAST. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THAT MAY MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUN...DGEX APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER (TO THE SW) WITH REGARD TO THE
POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WX...THIS WILL MEAN THAT A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. MEXMOS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH OF THE
CAPE.

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....HIRSCH

They also mentioned our dry season was coming early:(
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
466. PBG00
12:16 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Thanks.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
464. Patrap
12:13 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Weekend relief..yeah!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
463. Patrap
12:11 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
..local Mets forecast outlook..NOLA...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
462. Patrap
12:10 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
CONUS front to push off the GOM coast..into the Gulf..come sat...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
460. PBG00
12:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Hey Rand!
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
459. PBG00
12:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
I have been absent as of late..missed all the fun. What is up with the gfs..two days now showing something crossing western fla..any significance to it?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
457. CybrTeddy
12:05 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
What is this disturbance doing?
Could it become TD-10. It has managed not to fizzle out over the last 6-7 hours
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
456. 21N71W
12:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Morning All,
In case you are interested, here are the conditions under Bahamas area blob ( Turks and Caicos Islands ) :
Temperature 81.1 °F / 27.3 °C
Dew Point 75.4 °F / 24.1 °C
Humidity 83%
Wind Speed 15.0mph / 24.1km/h ( I would say no wind !!)
Wind Gust 18.0mph / 29.0km/h
Wind NE
Pressure 29.86in / 1011.1hPa
Rain : NONE and we meed it to fill up the cistern

Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
455. PBG00
12:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Born again wishtians!!Mornin everyone
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
454. Patrap
12:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
..I cried to my Bloggers on the Telephone..How Long Now?...Till the Ban unrolls and you come home ..How Long Now..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
453. kmanislander
12:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
well coffee time but will bb later when my link button works lol
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
451. sandcrab39565
12:01 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Geez, I am amazed you can have those like yesterday that provoke the regular folks but yet they seem to stay.I really wonder.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
450. Patrap
12:01 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
...u can go to my blog and see the tuesday comments..like 300 hits on my blog that day..we had great time..a civil revolt it was in the main blog..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
449. kmanislander
12:00 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
Randrewl

you forget " reformed "

LMAO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
448. Patrap
12:00 PM GMT on October 05, 2006
I got banned Tuesday....for libel against the WU state..LOL..2 months home incarceration....ankle monitor..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
447. kmanislander
11:59 AM GMT on October 05, 2006
uh oh
I'm straying off topic LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
444. kmanislander
11:59 AM GMT on October 05, 2006
sandcrab

some were banned, have been forgiven and resurrected to the blog. There are others who will probably never be allowed to return unless the slip back under an alter ego, kinda like Batman lol
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
443. Patrap
11:58 AM GMT on October 05, 2006
...Stay on topic...sounds alot like" stay on target!"...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
442. kmanislander
11:57 AM GMT on October 05, 2006
one thing is certain the ban took a lot of the humour out of the blog which I do miss.

What a dull world it would be if a sense of humour was outlawed and yet that is essentially what is happening here.
Kinda sad really.
I understand about not posting age and content sensitive material etc but everyone needs a good laugh now and then
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
441. Patrap
11:57 AM GMT on October 05, 2006
..yeah..Arron away burying family....but he got back to me after the deluge of patrap mail...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
440. Patrap
11:56 AM GMT on October 05, 2006
ok crab..no hurry..Ive got lotsa scanning to do..since my siblings are puter illiterate when it comes to uploading and scanning pics..Ive got boxes of Family stuff to scan for them...due to the scare of losing them to another flood...my luck to be the FAMILY scanner..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.