Xangsane intensifying rapidly just before landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:41 PM GMT on September 30, 2006

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Typhoon Xangsane is making landfall on the central coast of Vietnam in the next few hours. Unfortunately for Vietnam, the typhoon is making an impressive last-minute intensification spurt, with the cloud tops getting very cold and the eye shrinking to a very tiny size. See the animation of the IR satellite images for the storm from NOAA. Da Nang on the central coast of Vietnam has had its winds rise to 56 mph with higher gusts at last report, and may receive a direct hit from Xangsane with heavy damage. I hope they got everyone out! The rest of my blog is the same as this morning's below--

Vietnam has ordered mass evacuations of 200,000 coastal residents in the path of Xangsane. This is the largest evacuation in Vietnam for a typhoon in 30 years. Authorities are most concerned for the welfare of about 4,000 fisherman still at sea in the path of the typhoon; in May, 234 Vietnamese fishermen were killed or unaccounted for after Supertyphoon Chanchu passed east of Vietnam on its way to a landfall in China.

The Philippine Islands continue to clean up from Xangsane today, and the death toll stands at 94 with at least another 60 people missing. Over 15,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, and power is still out to 20% of the island of Luzon's 43 million people. The death toll from the storm was not as high as many other typhoons to strike the country in recent years, since Xangsane moved though fairly quickly--15 mph--and didn't have time to dump as much rain as usual for a typhoon. Peak rain amounts (Figure 1) were about 10 inches, and rainfall amounts closer to 15 inches are required to trigger the kinds of major flash flooding and mud slides that often kill so many in the Philippines.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Typhoon Xangsane over the Philippines as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. 250mm is about 10 inches. Image credit: NASA TRMM Project.

Hurricane Isaac
Hurricane Isaac became the season's fifth hurricane this morning, thanks to some lighter wind shear, warmer waters, and moister air. Isaac has another day or two of favorable conditions before cooler waters and high wind shear weaken the hurricane. Isaac is expected to pass near southeast Newfoundland on Monday as a tropical storm with 55 mph winds.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form in the mid-Atlantic south of the Azores Islands by Wednesday, and this system may make the transition to a tropical storm as it drifts south over the open Atlantic late in the week. There are no other threat areas to discuss--the tropical wave (97L) that we were tracking yesterday, north of Puerto Rico, has fallen apart.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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516. CybrTeddy
4:25 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
WPB i classify debby wasnet a fish.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23660
515. sebastianjer
4:24 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
new blog up
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
514. WPBHurricane05
4:23 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Debby as a TD effected the azores

Debby really had no impact on the Azores or Cape Verdes Islands, just a wet breezy day. So I guess its safe to say we have had no fish storms, unless you want to classify Debby as one. Gordon, Helene, and Florence were by no means a fish storm.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
513. dpryor1
4:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Posted By: PIRSRON at 4:12 PM GMT on October 01, 2006.

Been living in panhandle for 12 years (Destin) never have I seen a flurry!!!

**I was raised in Destin. In 1974 we were wearing shorts on Xmas Day. Two days later we had a pretty good snowfall!
512. CybrTeddy
4:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2006


Issac persenting a cloud filled eye.
This one only if it hits Newfoundland (Like its soppost to) will be a fish other wize actual theres been no fishes Debby as a TD effected the azores
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23660
511. letitsnow321
4:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Appreciate the input, must sleep. 2 work the 8-8 tonight. Continue on peoples sorry to make any1 read this.Thanks
510. WPBHurricane05
4:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Well actually it was snow mixed with rain, but heck snow was falling and thats all that matters!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
509. WPBHurricane05
4:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Ok 2 or 3 years, but it happens occaisionaly.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
508. SWLAStormFanatic
4:12 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Anybody have any idea what that boundary moving E to W across the CentGOM is. At the surface it's moving E to W, but the top is getting blown W to E. I know it's nothing significant...just curious.
506. Skyepony (Mod)
4:11 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
refill
SAL doesn't look too bad for the area.

Heavy shear is forecasted near the Azores

ULL to the NE, more shear moving in from the NW.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
505. dpryor1
4:10 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Well, actually it doesn't snow in the FL Panhandle every year, but we do get an occasional flurry. It happens about once every 2 or 3 years. In 1992 we had snow on the ground for 2 days!
504. GoofOff
4:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Good morning all. Day got off to a bad start. No Baileys for the coffee, nothing to make Bloody Mary's. Hope it doesn't go that way all day. At least the liquor stores opened a few minutes ago, so I can run down and stock up on neccessities. Can't watch football without fluids.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
503. WPBHurricane05
4:07 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
I will be back later, e-mailing a webmaster on some other site that says Hurricanes spend clockwise.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
502. WPBHurricane05
4:04 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
It snows in the panhandle of Florida (at least flurries) almost every winter, I was up there when it happened and they said they get flurries every year. (NOTE: That was in December 2004)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
501. CybrTeddy
4:01 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Joshfsu123
Lol
u r just another death caster as i call it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23660
499. Joshfsu123
3:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
The season is over.... not a single system will impact the lower 48 the rest of the season and I only expect 1 or 2 more systems overall before the end of the Hurricane Season.

Here's to '07!
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 580
498. Patrap
3:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
..Yummy..careful..dont burn um...!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
497. sandcrab39565
3:54 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Got some Amandas hot sausage and hotdogs for the grandson.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
496. sandcrab39565
3:53 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Sounds good Pat
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
495. sandcrab39565
3:52 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Gulfguy, I see the yellow butterflies are around another sighn of fall.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
494. Patrap
3:52 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Chicken Legs & smoked sausage...and er..dem shrimps..too...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
493. sandcrab39565
3:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Morning all and my friend Patrap how are you today got ribs a cooking and boudin ready for the grill.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
492. SLU
3:48 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Posted By: refill at 3:34 PM GMT on October 01, 2006.

Can someone please explain me why the conditions for the wave in the E. Atlantic will become increasingly more unfavorable for development? Are there SAL or an ULL or dry air? Thanks



UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

The NHC thinks that the wind shear will increase. Who is to doubt them? It's been that sort of season.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
491. WPBHurricane05
3:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
In El Nino South Floridians shall expect a colder than average winter, and a more wetter winter. Have fun!! ;)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
490. GulfGuy
3:42 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Ok everyone, here is something to throw into the mix, and maybe a cooling thought for some of you.

Wife's parents live in Gueydon, LA. Her mom said the first of the geese arrived on Wednesday of last week, 9/27. That's early. So, according to weather lore, we're in for a COLD winter.
489. WPBHurricane05
3:37 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
By 5:30pm you might hear from the NHC:

... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


lol
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
488. NWAtlanticCyclone
3:36 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
S. Florida is surrounded by warm water except northern Flordia. The ocean will moderate the temperatures because the surrounding waters in the winter are above at least 35F. Mexico is talking about a mountainous region and that's northern Mexico. Georgia did not get snow in that storm because they either missed to far south or too far north and that means you get rain. That winter of 04/05 that Victoria, Texas and New Orleans, LA got snow, us here in southern New England on Cape Cod, got over a foot and a half. That winter we received over 100" of snow, one record storm (the Blizzard of 05')
487. refill
3:34 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Can someone please explain me why the conditions for the wave in the E. Atlantic will become increasingly more unfavorable for development? Are there SAL or an ULL or dry air? Thanks
486. WPBHurricane05
3:33 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Last time it snowed in the Treasure Coast of Florida (near South Florida) was the winter of 2003, just some flurries.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
485. HurricaneRoman
3:31 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
letitsnow will this year u will probaably see snow cuz of el nino and north georgia gets snow here and there.. oh yeah i never knew it snowed in Mexico! Why can't it snow in s. Florida!!!!!!
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 958
484. SLU
3:29 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
By 5:30pm you might hear from the NHC:

... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

(lol)
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
483. letitsnow321
3:27 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Hey Hurricane Roman. Appreciate the reply, I'm actually referring to Christmas 2004. Brownsville had 1.5 inches of snow. It dropped 5 in. on Corpus Christi and a foot up in Victoria, Tx. Talk about luck at Christmas, it even snowed a little in MEXIfrigginCO! But we ain't seen s*it in 2 years, I have 2 grandkids now they love the snow about as much as I do. It just sucks to miss out on the opp. while they're still young and all, heck I'm only 35. Again I appreciate the response. Ty
482. WPBHurricane05
3:25 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
481. SLU
3:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
480. WPBHurricane05
3:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Good words ST, we all need to stay alert, still have another 2 months of hurricane season. Cold fronts are going to make it interesting in the Gulf.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
479. GulfGuy
3:12 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Good Morning All.

Posted By: STORMTOP at 2:44 PM GMT on October 01, 2006.

DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN PEOPLE ALONG THE GULF COAST....HURRICANE SEASON IS NOT OVER....WE CANT RELAX FOR ANOTHER 3 WEEKS....STAY ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!StormTop


StormTop, do you have a sneaking suspision that a cyclone is going to pop up and suprise us?

I've been grazing through the posts from the last oh, probably 18 hours, and the only thing I've seen anyone say about that was something about a lot of share over the Carribean. I guess that could drop off. What do you think?
478. WPBHurricane05
3:12 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Im back
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
477. HurricaneRoman
3:00 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
lteitsnow i think it was 2001 and when i wnet to atalnta it snowed 3 times out of the 5 days i was there..... and it snowed alot...but my cousin said that that was one of the snowiest years for her and this in atlanta
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 958
476. 1900hurricane
2:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Hey Y'all. Can't stay today, and I will be on here for only a sparing amount of time for the next three weeks. If you want to contact me, you can leave a message in my blog or mail me.

Hope everyone has a great day!
: )
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
475. Patrap
2:55 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
..BRASS = breathe, relax,..aim,..stop,...SQUEEZE!...LOL!..brass
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
474. Patrap
2:54 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Semper Fi!.....Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
472. STORMTOP
2:44 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN PEOPLE ALONG THE GULF COAST....HURRICANE SEASON IS NOT OVER....WE CANT RELAX FOR ANOTHER 3 WEEKS....STAY ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!StormTop
471. Patrap
2:41 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
sibilest..check..1 2 3
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
470. Patrap
2:33 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
let it out..Ive got sum time
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
469. Patrap
2:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
..Im out to get the things ready for the Game..ILL holler atch later....Patrap...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
468. ricderr
2:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
damn glad i wasn't here last night..cus i'm already walking a hole in this carpet.......pissed off beyond words right now.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21444
467. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on October 01, 2006
Thanks ricc..I needed to hear that from a sound Voice of SAnity..thanks Man.....!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.