Typhoon Xangsane bears down on Vietnam

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on September 30, 2006

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Vietnam has ordered mass evacuations of 200,000 coastal residents in the path of Typhoon Xangsane, now a very dangerous Category 3 typhoon over the South China Sea. This is the largest evacuation in Vietnam for a typhoon in 30 years. Xangsane is expected to hit Vietnam on Sunday morning as a major typhoon. Authorities are most concerned for the welfare of about 4,000 fisherman still at sea in the path of the typhoon; in May, 234 Vietnamese fishermen were killed or unaccounted for after Supertyphoon Chanchu passed east of Vietnam on its way to a landfall in China. Da Nang on the central coast of Vietnam has had its winds rise to 29 mph with higher gusts today, and may receive a direct hit from Xangsane.

The Philippine Islands continue to clean up from Xangsane today, and the death toll stands at 94 with at least another 60 people missing. Over 15,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, and power is still out to 20% of the island of Luzon's 43 million people. The death toll from the storm was not as high as many other typhoons to strike the country in recent years, since Xangsane moved though fairly quickly--15 mph--and didn't have time to dump as much rain as usual for a typhoon. Peak rain amounts (Figure 1) were about 10 inches, and rainfall amounts closer to 15 inches are required to trigger the kinds of major flash flooding and mud slides that often kill so many in the Philippines.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Typhoon Xangsane over the Philippines as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. 250mm is about 10 inches. Image credit: NASA TRMM Project.

Hurricane Isaac
Hurricane Isaac became the season's fifth hurricane this morning, thanks to some lighter wind shear, warmer waters, and moister air. Isaac has another day or two of favorable conditions before cooler waters and high wind shear weaken the hurricane. Isaac is expected to pass near southeast Newfoundland on Monday as a tropical storm with 55 mph winds.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form in the mid-Atlantic south of the Azores Islands by Wednesday, and this system may make the transition to a tropical storm as it drifts south over the open Atlantic late in the week. There are no other threat areas to discuss--the tropical wave (97L) that we were tracking yesterday, north of Puerto Rico, has fallen apart.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 233 - 183

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233. tropicfreak
8:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2006
Now I'm the last to comment on this blog page,Proabably
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
232. WPBHurricane05
10:44 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
TD UF!!!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
231. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
10:41 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
There's a new blog.

Jeff Masters
230. dpryor1
10:38 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Before everyone becomes morose, keep in mind that things can change on a dime. Not saying they will, but we've been here and done that before. Heads up and eyes wide open!
229. eye
10:29 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
the most overhyped season ever.......is ending with a thud
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
228. plywoodstatenative
10:24 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
story, thats the blob that 23 was referring to a few days ago. I do believe this storm will become something, just do not believe we will know much until that big trough comes down in a few days. This front by Florida will have to settle in place for a bit before we can see anything come off of it.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
227. WPBHurricane05
10:17 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
physicic

I mean im psycic
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
226. Hellsniper223
10:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Not to bump heads with anyone... But I don't see any development for the next two weeks...
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
225. WPBHurricane05
10:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Im physicic
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
224. chessrascal
10:12 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
the blob in the SE carribbean is getting mor organized it may be something to watch in the next few days.
223. Hellsniper223
10:10 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
How could you possibly see that????
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
222. WPBHurricane05
10:09 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
afternoon

I see a J storm in late October early November in the Carribean but dies out due to shear and its moisture is pushed Northeast toward Florida by a cold front
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
221. sandcrab39565
10:07 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Afternoon everyone
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
220. Hellsniper223
10:04 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Too much shear for any kind of development over the bahamas right now... Actually... There's too much shear just about everywhere...

Season over?
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
219. WPBHurricane05
10:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
PLAY STANDS!!

Back to the weather!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
218. WPBHurricane05
9:59 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Under Review??

That was a TD (touchdown not tropical depression).

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
217. WPBHurricane05
9:58 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
13 UF!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
216. WPBHurricane05
9:55 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Roll Tide @ UF
10 Al. 7 Fl.

Have to go for UF on this one.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
215. Randrewl
9:40 PM GMT on September 30, 2006



Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31602
214. Patrap
9:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Nimbus-3 pic of Camille..note small compact Cat-5..and small eye diameter..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
213. Patrap
9:31 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
..Dosent bother me..my eyes seen enough for 6 lifetimes..its all good...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
212. Patrap
9:30 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Hurricane strike graph...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
211. chessrascal
9:28 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html
210. franck
9:22 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Got to come a big fed project to shore up New Orleans. Some fed people got to get their heads out, return home and help the forty-eight. We all the fed. Else what's it about?
It ain't about Iraq. Finished.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
209. dpryor1
9:18 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
You go, Patrap- git 'em all!
208. franck
9:17 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Sorry Patrap..didn't realize you were around. Won't discuss depressing scenarios anymore.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
207. franck
9:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Pontchartrain

Like a big bathtub waiting to be overturned.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
204. Thundercloud01221991
9:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Remember that the bahamahas was where Katrina formed
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
200. CybrTeddy
9:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
ok
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
199. SWLAStormFanatic
9:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
When it gets dark.
198. dpryor1
9:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
No prob, Cyber. You just learned something new and that's always a good thing!
197. CybrTeddy
9:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Hmm
when do the trolls come on?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
196. SWLAStormFanatic
9:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Posted By: CybrTeddy at 8:59 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Am i frogiven?



No, but you are forgiven.
195. franck
9:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Cyberteddy..the 8:41 radar post of Katrina shows the absorption of dry air and a much demised eyewall even before landfall. Also, the right front quadrant missed New Orleans altogether. With tropical systems increasing in intensity and number there is a much worse scenario which may await New Orleans. There is the possibility that much of Pontchartrain could be dumped into the city if a storm were to hit at a certain angle.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
194. CybrTeddy
8:59 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Am i frogiven?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
193. SWLAStormFanatic
8:57 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
I was getting dizzy from all the spins and moves.
192. CybrTeddy
8:57 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
there all gone sorry guys didnt mean for it to freeze up your computers.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
191. hurricane23
8:57 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Maybe another 10mph increase in winds for Isaac then steady weaken is forcasted.

(Part of NHC 5pm Discussion on Hurricane Isaac.)

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL OF ISSAC THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED
WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB/AFWA ARE INCREASING...
AND THE LOCAL 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR T4.2... EQUATING
TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. ISAAC STILL HAS A
LITTLE MORE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE HURRICANE. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AND
WATERS COOL BELOW 26C.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
190. dpryor1
8:55 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
They were cool Cyber, but thanks for removing them!
189. Randrewl
8:54 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Thanks Cybr.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31602
188. franck
8:54 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Awesome graphics Cyberteddy..thanks.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
187. CybrTeddy
8:53 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Oh crud so sorry i will remove them right away!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
186. Patrap
8:53 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
all these images have crushed the bandwidth
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
185. Randrewl
8:53 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Cybr...see if you would consider removing that loop.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31602
184. Randrewl
8:51 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
If anyone is on dial-up...those loops are making it very difficult for them gang.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31602

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.