Puerto Rico disturbance weakens; powerful Typhoon Xangsane threatens Vietnam

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2006

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The tropical wave over the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands (designated 97L by the NHC yesterday) has weakened. The wave is north of Puerto Rico this morning, and could bring some heavy rains to that island today. The system is very small and disorganized, and the 10-15 knots of wind shear over it will probably not allow such a small system to develop. You can follow the progress of 97L today on long range Puerto Rico radar.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 97L.

Typhoon Xangsane
The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead and assess the damage left by Typhoon Xangsane, which roared over the main Philippine Island of Luzon Wednesday, passing directly over the capital city of Manila. At least 60 are dead and another 60 missing, with many hard-hit areas still to be heard from, due to failed communications and washed out roads. The majority of the victims died in mudslides, flash floods, and building collapses. Xangsane cut power to all 43 million people on the island of Luzon, making it one of the most extensive blackouts due to natural disaster in world history. Power had been restored to about 40% of the island this morning. Xangsane (from the Laotian word for Elephant) hit as a Category 4 typhoon with 145 mph winds before weakening during its passage over land. It has reintensified today into a Category 4 typhoon over the South China Sea, and is expected to deliver a heavy blow to Vietnam on Sunday.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Typhoon Xangsane over the Philippines as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. The pink color represents about ten inches of rain. Image credit: NASA TRMM Project.

Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac continues to look unimpressive, thanks to dry air on the south side being drawn in, wind shear from an upper level low, and passage over some cool ocean waters stirred up by hurricanes Gordon and Helene. All of these influences should diminish a bit over the next day, which may allow Isaac the opportunity to do some modest intensification. The storm is not a threat to any land areas, and should recurve out to sea this weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A strong cold front has pushed off the North American coast, and is serving as the focus of some thunderstorm development from the Bahamas southwestward through the waters south of Florida. We'll have to watch this region over the coming days for some possible development. However, the computer models are no longer forecasting development along this old front.

Next week, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form in the mid-Atlantic south of the Azores Islands, and this system may make the transition to a tropical storm like Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta did last year.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, and I'll post my outlook for October on Monday. We might be done with landfalling hurricanes for the year!

Jeff Masters

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853. pottery
3:11 AM GMT on October 01, 2006
Hey!!!!! Carib Beer from Trinidad is a better beer than Red Stripe everyday. And its not lite,at all.........
Oh, Hi ther everyone, some new names featuring. Yea, this is indeed a good place for a chukkle, and a great place for info.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24674
852. NCbeachbunny
5:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
kmanislander

"beachbunny

they even have " Red Stripe Light " now.
goes down like silk
I will have one for you this afternoon at the beach lol"

Wish I was there watching the sunset! Sure did love diving on Edny Rock (lots of creatures)

Moonlightcowboy...I'd love to go! LOL

NC bunny
851. caymanguy
4:50 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Posted By: kmanislander at 4:45 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

moonlightcowboy

try pirates week in Nov. Lots of action for a week straight and every town has a different set of events each day including TONS of great local food and, of course, lots of cold beer

....and rum, cant forget da rum.....
850. WPBHurricane05
4:46 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
849. kmanislander
4:45 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
moonlightcowboy

if you like miles of unbroken powder white sand and water so clear it looks like a fish bowl then this is the place to be !

try pirates week in Nov. Lots of action for a week straight and every town has a different set of events each day including TONS of great local food and, of course, lots of cold beer
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
848. Ron5244
4:41 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
MichaelSTL, you ruin all the fun. I enjoyed playing around with all the models too sometimes.

From this point on you are my enemy! Just kidding, but you did ruin it.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
847. moonlightcowboy
4:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
kman...you make it sound tooooooo good.

Really cold Reds are good. Been several places in the Carib, but not Cayman...needs to be the next trip...gonna start looking and planning...interest is peaked.

NC bunny, wanna go? lol
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
846. WPBHurricane05
4:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
845. kmanislander
4:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
dhcoop
where are you ?
JA ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
844. Ron5244
4:38 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
And you didn't guess it was fake because you went to be the big FBI agent and investigate it.

Oh no...

You just know I have a knack for "playing" around like that from past events. Isn't that right, Mike?
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
843. WPBHurricane05
4:38 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
WOW Ron!!

Are you trying to destroy Miami with a cat.5?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
841. dhcoop
4:38 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
I had a red stripe just yesterday!
840. Ron5244
4:37 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Besides, the image is a broken link... I tried copying the URL and tried to view it in a seperate window... says "Cannot find server". In any case, it has to be fake... the URL is of an image hosting site... which means that you uploaded it... put this together with the fact that such a storm is not listed = made-up.


Oh it certainly was made up. But still observe the track, and how REAL it is. Wow, I am an a-hole sometimes! The track was well plotted of me I must say.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
839. kmanislander
4:36 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
beachbunny

they even have " Red Stripe Light " now.
goes down like silk
I will have one for you this afternoon at the beach lol
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
838. Patrap
4:34 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
..well..something has to produce the fetch..could be combo between High to the north..and some entity in GOM...like I said..the models may start picking up on the Yucatan scnerio again.maybe.,.kindas,..could be..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
837. NCbeachbunny
4:34 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
kmanislander

Thanks for the welcome and I'd love to return. I would really love to live there. Have a Red Stripe beer and a meat pie for me. LOL

NCbeachbunny
836. Ron5244
4:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:27 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Wikipedia cannot be wrong...

By the way, the National Climatic Data Center actually uses Wikipedia for some of their information; compare the stuff here to what you see here (mainly the images)!


Little by little that image is starting to show, Mike. Observe it.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
834. Patrap
4:32 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
the later runs of the super globals or the others may trend basck to this ..will see if they do come tommorrow...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
833. Patrap
4:30 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
..nope..no SAL..but stalled frontal boundary and a easterly wave...bad combination for this Time of year......
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
832. caymanguy
4:30 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Patrap,

any idea how long those fast winds may last?
831. kmanislander
4:30 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
expect more of the same !! LOL
when you are as small as we are it only takes one cloud to spoil the day.
It looks like the tail end of the front is draped down our way but hopefully the usual pattern of morning showers and late afternoon sun holds true for today
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
830. SWLAStormFanatic
4:30 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Pat, noticed that too. Anything that forms in the W Car or BOC won't go NE or E...it will go N or NW. (In theory!)
829. Patrap
4:29 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
..interesting note....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
828. Patrap
4:29 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Local mets forecast in NOLA..mentioning increase in easterly winds..late next week...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
827. SWLAStormFanatic
4:28 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Pat, that's what I was thinking earlier. There ain't no Saharan air and dust down there right now.
825. Patrap
4:27 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Here..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
824. Patrap
4:26 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
after the fast upper winds relax..watch the action in the Western Carribean...its getting juicy down there for sure....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
823. caymanguy
4:26 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Kman,

hmmmm... well, the wv shows the water moving east pretty quick buts so is the incoming...
gotta say...well, no idea

hope that helps lmao

sorry couldnt help myself, i was hoping you could tell me what to expect lol
822. Patrap
4:25 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
GOM in da water vapor...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
821. SWLAStormFanatic
4:24 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Michael, I thought there was another "poser" until I saw that it was still the same content Dr Masters had been having.
820. Ron5244
4:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
when that image loads, you'll see Mike.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
817. Patrap
4:21 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
click to enlarge that pic...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
816. Patrap
4:19 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
The HUGE anticyclone over Hurricane Mitch ..in 98Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
815. kmanislander
4:19 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
beachbunny

another welcome from the Caymans
Don't forget to return !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
814. SWLAStormFanatic
4:18 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
That's strange. I few moments ago when I clicked on "blogs", Jeff Masters blog showed up like this jeffmasters. I didn't think it was usually all lower case. I clicked back again and it showed up like this: JeffMasters ("J" and "M" in upper case)

Anybody have any idea why?
813. Ron5244
4:18 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
The books say 1905. The track should be showing, but I guess the image failed to load or something.

Pretty interesting how you can so clearly make out the dominant high that drove this thing.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
812. WPBHurricane05
4:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
but watch out for the BBQ

LOL

thanks
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
811. NCbeachbunny
4:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
"welcome NC, these folks can help alot with understanding how weather works, some are awesome prognosticators others are superb free entertainment. gotta watch out for the catfights tho.. ;-)

course sometimes they are sidesplitting!"

caymanguy...Thanks for the welcome! By the way, I love the caymans. Been there diving several times. I fact on my first trip I fell in love with my man there. Been married 24 years now. We went with group from Charlotte. It's a wonderful place!

And you are right about this blog being entertaining. I get many chuckles here everyday! LOL I spend too much time here learning and laughing. Great place!

NCbeachbunny

810. Patrap
4:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
The current view..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
809. nash28
4:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Ok, done with that nonsense. Going back home to make that bloody mary:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
808. WPBHurricane05
4:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
The Great Coastal Hurricane

When was that?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
806. kmanislander
4:14 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
yeah it was wild on Thursday night

My daughter is supposed to have a birthday party at public beach today. What do you think of the chances of that happening ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
805. moonlightcowboy
4:14 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 4:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.
paint is hard to get off...;)


...try some paint thinner, or gasoline...takes it off ez, but watch out for the BBQ.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
804. Ron5244
4:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2006
The Great Coastal Hurricane

Gave 90% of the East Coast hurricane force winds.

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Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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