New disturbance affecting Lesser Antilles; Typhoon Xangsane batters the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2006

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A tropical wave moving through the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands this morning has been declared "Invest 97L" by the National Hurricane Center. Although small, the wave has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be of concern. The wave is moving west-northwest at 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to Antigua, St. Maarten, and surrounding islands today, and Puerto Rico on Friday. Martinique radar shows a moderate area of heavy rain moving through the islands. Antigua has seen some heavy rain this morning and gusty winds. Winds shifted to southwesterly at 11am EDT this morning, indicating that a closed surface circulation may exist. QuikSCAT winds at 6:22am EDT this morning showed a large area of 20-25 mph winds under these thunderstorms, and a strong wind shift, but not a closed surface circulation. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to remain below 15 knots the next two days. The low shear and warm waters the system is over may allow some continued development. The computer models are not tracking this system very well because it is so small, but it appears likely that the storm will pass just north of the Bahamas and then turn north. The storm will probably not hit the U.S. East Coast. The earliest this could become a tropical depression is Sunday.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 97L.

Typhoon Xangsane
Typhoon Xangsane roared over the main Philippine Island of Luzon yesterday, passing directly over the capital city of Manila, home to 12 million people. Xangsane was rated as a Category 3 storm when it hit Manila, but winds of only Category 1 strength affected the city. The Manila airport recorded maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 89 mph as the northern eyewall of Xangsane battered the city about noon local time. Manila passed into the calm of the eye, recording a pressure of 954 mb. Eleven deaths have been blamed on the typhoon so far, five of them from a mudslide in a mountainous area. Thirty people are missing in a dam collapse south of Manila. Xangsane's death toll is likely to go much higher when the area southeast of Manila where Xangsane made landfall as a Category 4 typhoon is heard from. Damage so far has been heavy, particularly to agriculture, and losses will likely reach several hundred million dollars. Xangsane did extensive damage to the power grid of Luzon, and the entire island experienced a blackout. Only 5% of the island has seen power restored thus far.

The last significant typhoon to affect Manila was 1995's Supertyphoon Angela, which killed 740, left 650,000 homeless, and caused severe damage to the agricultural areas surrounding the capital. Angela was one of 14 tropical storms or typhoons to affect the Philippines that year. So far this year, four typhoons have affected the Philippines. Interaction with land has weakened Xangsane on its passage over the Philippine Islands, but the typhoon should intensify once more this weekend into a major typhoon before hitting Vietnam on Sunday.


Figure 1. Typhoon Xangsane at landfall in the Philippines. Image credit: NASA.

Isaac is born
Tropical Storm Isaac formed over the waters southeast of Bermuda this morning. QuikSCAT wind data from 4:43am EDT this morning showed numerous wind barbs of tropical storm strength, which was given as the justification ofr upgrading the storm at 11am today. However, satellite imagery this morning shows a decrease in the amount and intensity of the thunderstorm activity near the center. Isaac is not a classic tropical storm, and may be more properly called a subtropical storm--one that is a hybrid between a true tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low is bringing about 10 knots of shear over the storm and some dry air into the center from the southwest. These negative influences are expected to decrease over the next 48 hours, which should allow slow intensification. All of the models predict that Isaac will turn north and recurve out to sea, and will not be a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula could see some development early next week, when a strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. and stall out over this region. The NOGAPS model continues to forecast tropical storm development here next week.

An area of heavy thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave near 9N 50W, about 500 miles east of the South American coast, is moving west at 15 mph. This wave is under about 10 knots of shear, but is disorganized, and I don't expect it to develop.

I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters

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977. Ron5244
3:24 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
This is quite some season! Look at all the U.S. major hurricane landfalls! WOW!

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
976. Gatorx
2:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
new blog
975. rwdobson
2:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
historically, s florida and nc are vulnerable in october. texas is a stretch, i guess.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
974. Patrap
2:41 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
..tyats not a valid scenerio..historically ..I must add
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
973. Patrap
2:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Model briefing..a must readLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
972. rwdobson
2:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
S Texas and S Florida are far enough south that the pattern over the rest of the US does not necessarily apply down there. A trough could miss a storm, failing to turn it away from the US and allowing it to hit these extreme southern locations.

And Eastern NC sticks so far out into the Atlantic, a storm that is turning out to sea could still clip it.

Not saying anything is going to hit, but these are the regions where something still might hit.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
970. Patrap
2:38 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
once more..SSts for TodayLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
969. Patrap
2:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
SSTs for todayLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
968. Patrap
2:35 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Mondays surface analaysisLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
967. Ron5244
2:33 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
When the Tropics sleep on Jeff Masters, Jeff Masters sleeps on the Tropics!

Same with me. lol
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
966. Ron5244
2:34 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
When the tropics sleep on Dr. Masters, Dr. Masters sleeps on the tropics!

Works that way with me too.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
965. Patrap
2:32 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
..not much happening...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
964. Ron5244
2:31 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Posted By: rwdobson at 2:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2006.

But if you live in South Texas or South Florida I would hold onto the generator gas for a while. Same with East NC.


That was quite specific. What makes you believe this?
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
963. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
..still very early in Hawaii
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
962. Patrap
2:30 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Potential areas ofLink Development
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
960. nash28
2:28 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Dr. Masters is running a little behind this morning I guess.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
959. Patrap
2:23 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
nogaps....Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
958. nash28
2:22 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
I am curious to see if 97L survives or not.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
957. rwdobson
2:21 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Meanwhile, Isaac has more of the look of an actual tropical cyclone today...
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
956. rwdobson
2:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
But if you live in South Texas or South Florida I would hold onto the generator gas for a while. Same with East NC.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
955. Ron5244
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 1:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Half day today!


Half day for me too. Thats why I figured not to go in for today.

I would have to go in at 6:55 and end off at 12:00 today.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
954. Ron5244
1:50 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
The Power Of A Hurricane!
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
953. Wishcasterboy
1:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Half day today!
952. TheRingo
1:31 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Very interesting the persistance with 97L. This will probably track with the BAM shallow for a bit. The heavy ridging that the gfs is predicting could keep this to the south more after that.
951. fldude99
1:30 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
i will be the first to come out and say that for all on northern GOM..the season is over for us here..use that gas you were saving for the generator
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
950. Ron5244
1:15 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
The earliest this could become a tropical depression is Sunday.

With that said by Dr. Masters, I still have all the faith I had in 97L developing.

It was not expected to become a depression yesterday, not expected today, not expected tomorrow, and the EARLIEST time it can develop is Sunday. Therefore, throwing this 97L out the window wouldn't be a smart idea until early next week when we know more about this disturbance.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
949. Miamiweather
1:13 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
thanks saddlegait i appreciate the help.
948. thelmores
1:11 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
morning all! :) TGIF!!!!




97L does exist, but it's poorly organized atm..... the gfdl can't even develop the storm at all.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
946. Miamiweather
12:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
got it saddlegait thanks now i understand so the chances of this system developing aren't that great
943. Miamiweather
12:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
I have a question maybe someone could help me out i don't understand why people keep saying 97l doesn't exist anymore then why is there still computer models tracking it?
942. kmanislander
12:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
bb soon
school run time
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
940. nash28
12:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Morning Crab.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
939. kmanislander
12:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
good morning everyone

after an absolute deluge here last night it is just overcast now but seems to besetting up for more of the same.
pressure is steady at 1013.6 with 1 or 2 mph wind out of the N
There is a small " blob" that has been sitting just off the coast of Nicaragua near the border with Honduras and the convection has maintained itself for some time.Pressures onshore are 29.85 in.
This area needs to be watched at this time of year.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
938. sandcrab39565
12:33 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Good morning Nellie, and Nash
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
937. nash28
12:28 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Good morning everyone.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
935. weathermanwannabe
12:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2006
Morning All...I'm off for the day but just checking in....Oh My God...Issac is GOING WEST!!!!!............See Yall Later...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
933. Hellsniper223
11:35 AM GMT on September 29, 2006
Is that an eye I see in 97L????

...lol
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
932. Thundercloud01221991
11:30 AM GMT on September 29, 2006
Bye
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
931. Thundercloud01221991
11:24 AM GMT on September 29, 2006
I have 7 minutes before I have to log off to go to school
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
930. 882MB
11:20 AM GMT on September 29, 2006
Hey thundercloud im logging off right now bcause i have to go to class
Member Since: September 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 360
929. Thundercloud01221991
11:17 AM GMT on September 29, 2006
Is anyone on this morning
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
928. Thundercloud01221991
10:44 AM GMT on September 29, 2006
We will have to wait and see
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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