96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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607. cgableshurrycanegal
6:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
CHILL PILL TIME!!! Good Grief you folks...
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606. sarepa
10:14 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
wich track is the disturbance in western caribean taking look to me east
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605. rwdobson
10:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
jake, hit your refresh button. there is a 2050 observation up now. that is what i used.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
604. jake436
10:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
09 26 1950 E 17.5 21.4 5.2 6 4.4 ENE 29.92 -0.08 81.3 84.0 - - - -
09 26 1850 E 21.4 23.3 5.6 5 4.4 E 29.92 -0.08 81.0 83.8 - - - -
09 26 1750 ESE 21.4 23.3 5.2 6 4.3 E 29.95 -0.04 79.0 84.2 - - - -
09 26 1650 SE 21.4 25.3 3.9 5 4.2 ENE 30.00 +0.01



This is the last four hours, by the way.
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603. WPBHurricane05
6:17 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
the center of circulation is over land
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
602. rwdobson
10:18 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
ok, jake let's take a longer-term view. over the last 23 hours, the pressure has INCREASED. is that long-term enough for you?
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
601. StoryOfTheCane
6:14 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 6:13 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
LOL I know Story! I'm just saying it needs to be watched, not that anything will develop. Remember - it's always better to be safe than sorry!

Well said, if you're going to get defensive or rude because you disagree with someone else's observation then you shouldn't be on this blog in the first place, especially if you make false observations like the pressure in the W. Caribbean isnt dropping..lol We're here to observe and discuss possibilities, nothing else, lets keep it civilized.
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600. kylejourdan2006
10:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
rw - A good forecaster wouldn't joke with anything that could possible be a threat now. Once the pressure stops dropping, it's a sign that development is POSSIBLE. And based on the reports I get, the three buoys within the vicinity of that area have dropped at least -0.05 to -0.08 in the last three hours.
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599. jake436
10:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: rwdobson at 10:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

wow, the pressure is down a whole 0.01 inches over the last 3 hours



Way to go after those long term events, bud.
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598. caymanguy
10:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
good evening folks,

you guys see all that water headed my way?

think im gonna get it?
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597. Tazmanian
3:13 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
: kylejourdan2006 where have you been
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596. kylejourdan2006
10:14 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
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595. rwdobson
10:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
wow, the pressure is down a whole 0.01 inches over the last 3 hours. and winds at 17.5 knots, head for the hills...
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594. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
10:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
does this blob have to do with the tropical wave near this location?
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592. kylejourdan2006
10:12 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
LOL I know Story! I'm just saying it needs to be watched, not that anything will develop. Remember - it's always better to be safe than sorry!
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591. StoryOfTheCane
6:09 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
be careful kylejourdan, if the pressure isnt dropping in the past 5 hours youre going to get attacked..lol
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590. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
10:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
dang its web war 3 in here i guess i shouldnt say anything
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588. jake436
10:07 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 10:07 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

thanks jake, i was simply mentioning its presence, nothing else, not like im saying, OH GOD, THIS BLOB IS GOING TO DEVELOP RIGHT NOW, just saying there are tendencies to be watched and theres always a possibility


Yep, I've looked back at your posts and cannot find where you said anything about RAPIDLY falling pressures or any such thing. Earlier today, I actually said the pressure was RAPIDLY RISING at this buoy, because it was. But the times, they have changed. And now pressures are indeed falling, and have been for several hours, there is no disputing that.
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586. kylejourdan2006
10:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
New low has just rolled off the coast of Africa. Watch for it to be added to the tropical weather discussion (possible outlook) soon:

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585. rwdobson
10:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"rwdobson is an alarmist when it comes to global warming"

nope. not at all. i stand right in the middle, with the deniers on one side and the alarmists on the other.
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583. StoryOfTheCane
6:05 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
thanks jake, i was simply mentioning its presence, nothing else, not like im saying, OH GOD, THIS BLOB IS GOING TO DEVELOP RIGHT NOW, just saying there are tendencies to be watched and theres always a possibility
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582. StoryOfTheCane
6:03 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
YESTERDAY - WINDS = 10kts
TODAY - WINDS = 20kts

Pretty significant, and i never said anything about the pressure being significant, just a slight tendency of dropping, which is how these things start
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581. kylejourdan2006
10:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Evening everyone. I'm not sure where the NHC is getting their data, because I'm showing every buoy on the Caribbean around that area of thunderstorms reporting falling pressures (falling at least -0.05 or more), so it's definitely the one we need to keep an eye on right now, as the Caribbean and Gulf are the areas best for development during late season.
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580. Patrap
10:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
CyclonebusterLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
579. WPBHurricane05
6:02 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
its one thing to say we have a rapidly stregnthining system, its another to not believe the NHC!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
578. jake436
9:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 9:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

what are you guys the blog police? cant mention a possibility without getting attacked, grow up



No, rwdobson is an alarmist when it comes to global warming, and applies such principles as not looking at the short term to prove or disprove points when it comes to global warming, but he is the antithesis of an alarmist when it comes to "blobs" I guess, and is OK with using short term occurences to prove or disprove his point. I must admit though, I do not have a problem with him not being an alarmist when it comes to blobs. But nobody has seriously become alarmed by this blob. It is a tropical blog, and this blob is in an area favored for tropical development. It is OK for you, Story, and others to check the conditions in a suspicious looking area and make reasonable statements about what you see, which is all you have done.
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577. StoryOfTheCane
6:01 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
The pressure is going to continue to drop as this low emerges over the water, and the buoy that is showing SLIGHT dropping is far away from the center, so figure that one out, "genius"

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576. rwdobson
9:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
it's one thing to talk about a possibility. it's another to say "pressure is dropping rapidly! winds are increasing significantly"...when anyone can look at the data and see that neither of those statements is true.
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575. WPBHurricane05
5:58 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
remember this has very little chance, why

BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
574. Thundercloud01221991
4:54 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Current 29.91
Few hours ago 30.00

looks to be falling!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
572. rwdobson
9:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
if there was a real pressure drop, it would not stop like it has. you guys are so desperate to have something to talk about...
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571. StoryOfTheCane
5:57 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
what are you guys the blog police? cant mention a possibility without getting attacked, grow up
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570. jake436
9:55 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling


That's 2050's report, by the way.
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568. StoryOfTheCane
5:54 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
all the more reason why we need to continue to watch it, storms dont develop in 2 hours lol
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567. StoryOfTheCane
5:52 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
PRESSURE TENDENCY = -.04 AND FALLING
WINDS = 17kts
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566. WPBHurricane05
5:52 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
winds are at 20 MPH, thats enough for a leaf to fall down, plus THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
565. jake436
9:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: rwdobson at 9:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

last two observations at that buoy:

9-26 1950 29.92
9-26 1850 29.92

doesn't look like pressure is falling to me.



I thought you couldn't use short term events to prove things!!!
Look at the past several hours, genius.
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564. FloridaScuba
9:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Says weather experts, "That area will likely NOT develop".

Says blogger, "What!?!?"

[[BOOM]]

Says blogger to corpse of weather expert, "Yeah, but it might!"
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562. rwdobson
9:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"Tell me this, smart guy, whys the pressure falling and the winds significantly increasing??"

winds were LOWER at 1950 than at 1850. that's called a decrease.

can you guys do simple addition and subtraction?
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
561. CFLweather
9:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Should you have to filter out crazy members who go on about their delusions? I understand free speech, but this website is owned privately.
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560. StoryOfTheCane
5:51 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: FloridaScuba at 5:38 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
...IS NOT EXPECTED
that's NOT

Tell me this, smart guy, whys the pressure falling and the winds significantly increasing??

BUOY
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559. rwdobson
9:50 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
last two observations at that buoy:

9-26 1950 29.92
9-26 1850 29.92

doesn't look like pressure is falling to me.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
558. MTJax
9:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
It will make a TS and go to central FL like I guess casted last Friday.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.