96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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657. StoryOfTheCane
6:47 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
this is childish, everyone is entitled to their own opinion so dont be a CHILD and pounce on others for having them, coughEYEcough
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656. Ron5244
10:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
No faith in 96L

Little faith in the Caribbean disturbance/blob.
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655. caymanguy
10:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
hey if you guys got a minute, ...i mean sorry to interupt your pi**ing contest....

the coc in that blob that looks like its gonna run right up my *ss, has shifted,

would one of you kind people take a look at that and give me your synopsis? pls. :)
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654. kylejourdan2006
10:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Well said Story. As I said before, it's better to be safe than sorry. No one should be saying it's going to develop, but it NEEDS TO BE WATCHED! I'd rather be ready for a tropical system to hit than one to form by surprise because we "dismissed" that blob.
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653. eye
10:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
good IAD, i didnt say follow what i say. I just know there are about 4 people that go with the .01% chance in here and are never right. NHC is the one to follow anyhow.

Well, off to eat.

Stop making a mountain out of a mole hill(in terms of blobs)
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652. jake436
10:44 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
How much time passes between, say, 3:50 pm and 4:50 pm? Do you think it is 2 hours? LOL!!!


That is in fact 2 hourly reports. The 3:50 represents the report from 2:51-3:50, then from 3:51 to 4:50 is the second hour. I know you know this, so why be a jerk?
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651. kylejourdan2006
10:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
WPB - I use "fish storm" when referring to tropical systems, as I know Gordon and Helene affected Europe (my mom's entire family lives in Europe, and we visit often), but Debby affected the Cape Verdes as a tropical system, so she was not a fish storm.
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650. eye
10:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Kyle, like i said, I call Fish storms storms that dont affect the USA. I have said that many times, you can be "politically correct" all you want.
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649. IADCW
10:40 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Thank you EYE - Is there more we need to know - do you see more that we need to be aware of. If you could give me the next year of possible bad weather - I wouldnt have to worry about the weather at all. What about rain, what areas of the country do you see getting rain over the next year or so. Might if you could help me out with forecast - Wait - Eye, all seeing - I get it now.

Oh - never mind - I think I'll listen to all sides watch for myself.
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648. StoryOfTheCane
6:43 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
well theres nothing wrong with jumping on a blob in a weather blog, i mean, blobs are one of the number one signs of potential development other than circulation, are they not?
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646. WPBHurricane05
6:43 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Only Gordon and Helene were fish storms

Actually Gordon and Helene affected Europe

Debby was the only fish storm
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
644. eye
10:41 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
prediction: the blow up will blow down just as fast, just like the blob did 2 days ago N of Panama....everybody jumped all over it too.
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643. kylejourdan2006
10:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
eye - Then you were wrong of the fish storms. Only Gordon and Helene were fish storms, all others affected land. That's a sign of an inconsiderate jerk who thinks the U.S. is the only important land mass of the world.
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642. kylejourdan2006
10:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Look at this graphic. In October tropical systems can develop in that general area where that wave is. Although it's not October yet, the conditions don't just change automatically for each month, so that wave MIGHT have a chance. First we'll need to see a definitive swirl (low) and some more significant pressure drops. Yet, any pressure drop in the Caribbean with a wave like that needs to be monitored (keeping Wilma in mind)...

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641. plywoodstatenative
6:38 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Eye- Otherwise known as the Magical 8 Ball
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640. eye
10:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
IAD, i guess you didnt read Dr Ms blog awhile back, saying that El Nino tends to last longer and will most likely affect next season too, this was before it has grown even stronger. Also, a strong La Nina did not follow the last strong El Nino, in fact, the La Ninas that have formed have been weak.
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639. WPBHurricane05
6:36 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i do have to agree with eye on the fish storm
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
638. plywoodstatenative
6:35 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Michael, what about the small amount of convection to the east of the Lesser Antilles and to the southwest of 96L? Does that appear to be trying to develop or is just another wave?
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637. IADCW
10:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
EYE - I am really impressed!...Not only do you know whats gonna happen in the next 2 years... you know what everyones thinking too. Just amazing. Tell us more.
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636. WPBHurricane05
6:33 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
1650-1950 is 3 hours

1650-1750 1 hours
1750-1850 2 hours
1850-1950 hmm...3 hours
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
635. eye
10:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
kyle, actually my friend, i have called every storm a fish(besides of course Ernesto, the ones that have formed around the Cape Verdes this year, FISH as in no threat to the USA), while you try to wishcast them to the USA...I call them way way in advance while you say "it is tooooooooooooooooooo early" when it is pretty obvious what it will do.

Lets see if your storm dissipates by the am hrs.....is the name of the blog "WishcastersRus"?
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634. plywoodstatenative
6:31 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
eye, its just a wave on top of an eddy. there is basically no structure whatsoever to it. If anything its just a rainmaker for the central america area. Beyond that i see nothing. As for the blowup off of florida, it appears to be an old cold front coming back as a warm front and running into a cold/warm air mass divergence. As of 96L, I do not see anyway that it could move towards the US. There is an upper level low to the west of it providing the shear and providing the stearing motion. If it were to move towards the US it would encounter colder waters and would most likely dissapate.
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632. StoryOfTheCane
6:33 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: rwdobson at 6:31 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
ok, story said winds were increasing "rapidly" and he didn't say pressures were falling rapidly. my mistake. you got me there. but the winds are not increasing rapidly, or at all, so he did say something that was not fact.

I said the winds were increasing SIGNIFICANTLY. they have increased 10 kts from yesterday, in my book, that is significant
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631. kylejourdan2006
10:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
And eye - El Nino won't last longer than spring. It's going to be a "weak to moderate" El Nino, and they typically last a few months.
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630. eye
10:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
the last El Nino was NOT followed by a strong La Nina, in fact, there hasnt been a strong La Nina in a long time.
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629. StoryOfTheCane
6:31 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
eye, what division of NHC do you work for? thats what i thought.
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628. kylejourdan2006
10:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
eye is exactly why I talk in private blogs with people who KNOW what they're talking about. It's so funny what kind of crap we talk on eye in them! LOL! Some of you may know what I mean if you've joined us!

Watch out - a lot of the people I talk to personally (jp, nash, etc.) in the private blogs agree with me that eye is one the biggest wishcasters!
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626. rwdobson
10:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
ok, story said winds were increasing "rapidly" and he didn't say pressures were falling rapidly. my mistake. you got me there. but the winds are not increasing rapidly, or at all, so he did say something that was not fact.
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625. WPBHurricane05
6:30 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
no westcasting here
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623. plywoodstatenative
6:26 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
you know, if you compare where the blob is and where the eddy's are/gulfstream location is you will notice that it is perched right on top of either the gulfstream or an eddy. Either way if it stays on that path and moves slow enough, something may form out of it. But all the convection with nothing to wrap around will do nothing but produce wind, rain, and waves.
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622. WPBHurricane05
6:28 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
eye is the thing in the carribean gonna develop??

nope, thats what i thought
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621. eye
10:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
The Carribean blob will be gone by am hrs on Wednesday. Just like the other blob, will vanish. The tops are already warming and the whole structure of the blob does not impress me.
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620. jake436
10:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 10:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

09 26 1950 E 17.5 21.4 5.2 6 4.4 ENE 29.92 -0.08 81.3 84.0 - - - -
09 26 1850 E 21.4 23.3 5.6 5 4.4 E 29.92 -0.08 81.0 83.8 - - - -
09 26 1750 ESE 21.4 23.3 5.2 6 4.3 E 29.95 -0.04 79.0 84.2 - - - -
09 26 1650 SE 21.4 25.3 3.9 5 4.2 ENE 30.00 +0.01


This is the last four hours, by the way.

Actually, that is three hours: 1950 - 1650 = 300 (3 hours).



Micheal, don't embarass yourself. That is the latest 4 hourly reports, and actually, I didn't include 2050, which also dropped slightly.
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618. jake436
10:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
If you would have read my post about ten minutes ago, I said it was low and rising yesterday, peaked out, and has been falling all day. Nobody has said anything different. Story stated nothing that wasn't fact, and you pounced on him with weak evidence. Then you embellished what he said by claiming he said "rapidly" rising pressure. He didn't state anything but the facts that he observed.

And like I said earlier, there was no blob when the pressures were lower yesterday. It takes more than just low pressure to make a potential invest. It also takes more than just convection to make a potential invest. But when it appears that both of those ingredients exost at the same time, there's nothing wrong with calling attention to it.
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617. Thundercloud01221991
5:23 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
2050 29.91 -.04
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616. rwdobson
10:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
well, no matter how you slice it, 29.91 is not a low pressure at all. right at normal. the pressure goes up and down all the time and it doesn't mean a tropical cyclone is developing.

and by the way, 12 hours ago, the pressure was 29.89...so over the last 12 hours, pressure has risen.
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615. eye
10:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
what are yall gonna do in the Year of the El Nino 2007? Man, but 2008 yall will be watching every lil tiny itty bitty convection even over land....wait.....that is already happening....yall can hibernate next season, it is going to be way slower then this year with a strengthening El Nino.
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613. WPBHurricane05
6:22 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
jake told me to not to use short-term observations.

LOL true!!
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612. StoryOfTheCane
6:22 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
short term would be like 2-3 hours, 6-12 hours is the time frame that is most significant to watch since this storm is still in a possible developmental phase, 24 hours is too much unless its already a developed system
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611. StoryOfTheCane
6:21 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 6:19 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
the center of circulation is over land

doesnt mean it will always be this way, WPB
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609. rwdobson
10:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"who cares about 23 hours rwdobson?? "

jake told me to not to use short-term observations.
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608. StoryOfTheCane
6:19 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
who cares about 23 hours rwdobson?? in the past 6 hours it has dropped from 30.00 to 29.91, that is a descent drop
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607. cgableshurrycanegal
6:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
CHILL PILL TIME!!! Good Grief you folks...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.