96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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707. hurricane23
7:50 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Seems like cloud tops have warmed a bit over the western caribbean.SEE HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
704. StoryOfTheCane
7:47 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
WPB - Hold Control/Command and click on the image you want to post, then click "Open Image in a New Window", and the URL in the new window is the one you want to use.

MAKE SURE THE ENDING OF THE URL ENDS IN .GIF, .JPG and NOT .html
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703. dacajun
11:41 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Geez...room is ugly tonight...think I'll go watch the Saints/Falcon game again off my DVR and doze off with visions of Superbowl rings dancing in my head. I'll just live in my little fantasy world until either a) the Saints lose or b) blobs form an eye.
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702. Fl30258713
11:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
White House said to bar hurricane report By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
49 minutes ago



WASHINGTON - The Bush administration has blocked release of a report that suggests global warming is contributing to the frequency and strength of hurricanes, the journal Nature reported Tuesday.


The possibility that warming conditions may cause storms to become stronger has generated debate among climate and weather experts, particularly in the wake of the Hurricane Katrina disaster.

In the new case, Nature said weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration part of the Commerce Department in February set up a seven-member panel to prepare a consensus report on the views of agency scientists about global warming and hurricanes.

According to Nature, a draft of the statement said that warming may be having an effect.

In May, when the report was expected to be released, panel chair Ants Leetmaa received an e-mail from a Commerce official saying the report needed to be made less technical and was not to be released, Nature reported.

Leetmaa, head of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey, did not immediately respond to calls seeking comment.

NOAA spokesman Jordan St. John said he had no details of the report.

NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher is currently out of the country, but Nature quoted him as saying the report was merely an internal document and could not be released because the agency could not take an official position on the issue.

However, the journal said in its online report that the study was merely a discussion of the current state of hurricane science and did not contain any policy or position statements.

The report drew a prompt response from Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg (news, bio, voting record), D-N.J., who charged that "the administration has effectively declared war on science and truth to advance its anti-environment agenda ... the Bush administration continues to censor scientists who have documented the current impacts of global warming."

A series of studies over the past year or so have shown an increase in the power of hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a strengthening that many storm experts say is tied to rising sea-surface temperatures.

Just two weeks ago, researchers said that most of the increase in ocean temperature that feeds more intense hurricanes is a result of human-induced global warming, a study one researcher said "closes the loop" between climate change and powerful storms like Katrina.

Not all agree, however, with opponents arguing that many other factors affect storms, which can increase and decrease in cycles.

The possibility of global warming affecting hurricanes is politically sensitive because the administration has resisted proposals to restrict release of gases that can cause warming conditions.

In February, a NASA political appointee who worked in the space agency's public relations department resigned after reportedly trying to restrict access to Jim Hansen, a NASA climate scientist who has been active in global warming research.
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701. WPBHurricane05
7:47 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
nope, still not there
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
700. WPBHurricane05
7:47 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
699. StoryOfTheCane
7:45 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
just gotta keep an eye open and discard the naysayers that will say any blob in the Western Hemisphere will not develop.
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698. WPBHurricane05
7:45 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
what the heck, how come i cant post images from the navy but 1900 can, thats no fair, i want my mommy!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
697. WPBHurricane05
7:45 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
696. StoryOfTheCane
7:37 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: obsessedwweather at 7:36 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
Story-
Do you think, perhaps, the tropics are getting MORE active right now???

Definitely, and this is the time for stalled cold fronts and other storms to start forming in the Caribbean and Gulf, so while we may not be in any imminent danger from the activity of the African Systems, one of these blobs could end up becoming a player
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695. 1900hurricane
6:38 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
IT WORKS!!! HALELUJIAH!!! Once again, thank you MichealSTL! You get a "+"
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694. Thundercloud01221991
6:35 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
It is going to the gulf by then we should know better if it is going to develop or not sould be in about 2-3 days
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693. 1900hurricane
6:37 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
I think I have it. Does this work?

It should be Ioke's giant eyewall...
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692. obsessedwweather
11:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Story-

Do you think, perhaps, the tropics are getting MORE active right now???
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
691. CaneAddict17
11:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
The beginning of an end to a higher pressure tendency?Link
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690. StoryOfTheCane
7:34 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i cant tell whether or not its dying out or expanding at the moment
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689. StoryOfTheCane
7:33 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
ya i think its possible, i definitely dont think it should be disregarded, but still too early to tell what itll do if anything at all.
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688. caymanguy
11:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
thanks for that post story,

so whatcha think?

do you see the rotatation shift out over the sea?
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687. StoryOfTheCane
7:29 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
looks like its expanding a little bit
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686. StoryOfTheCane
7:26 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
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685. obsessedwweather
11:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Why is TWC not taking the Caribbean blob seriously? Bad question maybe???
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
684. CybrTeddy
11:18 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
img src="96L
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683. WPBHurricane05
7:18 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
682. NeverPanic
4:11 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
Cybr,
Basically a URL is a World Wide Web address and most World Wide Web addresses begin with "http" Hypertext Transfer Protocol.
Hope that explains a little clearer.
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681. WPBHurricane05
7:12 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
680. kylejourdan2006
11:10 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
URL = Uniform Resource Locater
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679. NeverPanic
4:09 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
Cybr.
The acronym "URL" stands for Uniform Resource Locator
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678. Ron5244
11:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
This time 2 years ago I was in the dark with no power under partly cloudy skys. lol

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677. NeverPanic
4:02 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 3:56 PM PDT on September 26, 2006.


Now that has to be the nicest comment I've seen for awhile.LOL
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676. Thundercloud01221991
6:06 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Address bar info all the text of the address bar

example---
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=526&tstamp=200609#commenttop
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675. CybrTeddy
11:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
What does URL mean
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674. WPBHurricane05
7:02 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
this time 2 years ago ron...
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
673. WPBHurricane05
7:01 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
that image was Tropical Storm Alison
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
672. Ron5244
11:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
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671. WPBHurricane05
6:59 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
thanks all
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
670. WPBHurricane05
6:59 PM EDT on September 26, 2006





Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
669. MichaelSTL
5:55 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posting images:



Add width=640 after the last quote and greater-than sign for larger images.
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668. kylejourdan2006
10:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Sorry, I can't post the brackets - but they're the ones on the "," and "." keys (by pressing shift).
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667. carvedinstone
10:44 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
cyclonebuster,

your tunnels are an interesting concept however the ecosystem would get completely messed up if they were built. You cant possibly believe that any idea on that scale would have 100% predictable results regardless of how many computer simulations take place before its built. The one thing that is carved in stone,is unpredictability.
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666. WPBHurricane05
6:54 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
665. StoryOfTheCane
6:53 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
too many people in here are concerned about what they dont want to happen so they get defensive, and pay little attention or thought to the facts at hand
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664. kylejourdan2006
10:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
WPB - To post images use the following code:

*img src="IMAGE URL"*

I had to use "*" to prevent the blog from trying to post that as an image, but just replace the "*" with the symbols (to enlose the above code). Hope that helps!
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663. kylejourdan2006
10:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
You're right Michael - sorry for that mistake! I completely forgot about that. Okay, so HELENE was the only "official fish storm", if that's the term...
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662. WPBHurricane05
6:51 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
how do you post images again...i forgot
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
661. StoryOfTheCane
6:50 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
thats a good point, jake, lol
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660. kylejourdan2006
10:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Right now the Caribbean disturbance is just a tropical wave, as you can cleary see the classic "V" shaped curve of it:



Nonetheless, it's worth watching until it moves into Central America (if and when it does).
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659. jake436
10:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: eye at 10:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

prediction: the blow up will blow down just as fast, just like the blob did 2 days ago N of Panama....everybody jumped all over it too.



This is probably true, although there are no facts presented to back it up. How come nobody's jumping on eye for not presenting facts, but they jump on Story when he presents facts they don't wanna hear?
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658. MichaelSTL
5:47 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
kylejourdan2006 - Gordon did affect the Azores as a hurricane... not a fish storm.
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657. StoryOfTheCane
6:47 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
this is childish, everyone is entitled to their own opinion so dont be a CHILD and pounce on others for having them, coughEYEcough
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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