96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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756. hurricane23
8:24 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Really how did you figure that out?I meant pics i have saved on my blog.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13707
755. StoryOfTheCane
8:25 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
hows the weather. lol
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754. WPBHurricane05
8:23 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
hola serapa! como es el tiempo?

hi ? what is the temperature?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
753. StoryOfTheCane
8:22 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
from my page, 23???? i think you mean from the NOAA website...
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752. WPBHurricane05
8:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i agree with the NHC 8:00 discussion, no development
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
751. StoryOfTheCane
8:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
hola serapa! como es el tiempo?
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749. hurricane23
8:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Here is one IR pic of Super Typhoon Ioke showing a very nice CDO @ 130kts.




Here is a close-up visible pic of Monica's awsome eye structure holding at a pressure of 879mb.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13707
748. auburn (Mod)
7:19 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 7:18 PM CDT on September 26, 2006.

8:00 NHC discussion says that development in the Caribbean blob is not expected...
What does eveyone here think?
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50594
747. WPBHurricane05
8:18 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
746. obsessedwweather
11:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I think we still have a ways to go before ruling out serious tropical activity. I am certainly no meteorologist, though. Mother Nature has her way.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
745. 1900hurricane
7:18 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 7:18 PM CDT on September 26, 2006.

Monica of Austrilia?


Correct!
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744. jake436
12:16 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 12:00 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

So does anyone think the blob in the Carribean is gonna mount to anything and can it end up in the GOM? It really don't have a chance to get real bad does it? With it being close to the gulf.



Not saying it will develop, but if it did, and got in the gulf, it would be like throwing 93 octane on a fire!!
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742. sarepa
12:15 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
HOLA SOI DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA
HEY I AM FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LOL
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741. WPBHurricane05
8:16 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Monica of Austrilia?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
740. auburn (Mod)
7:13 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Hello all,Carribean firing up?Wow it getting bigger...have to watch this one.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50594
739. 1900hurricane
7:13 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Remember this storm?

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738. DocBen
12:11 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Carib blob seems to be dissapating? Cloud tops warming?
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736. WPBHurricane05
8:10 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i got it, thanks for all the help
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
735. StoryOfTheCane
8:10 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i wouldnt worry about pressure so much until a center is established
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734. WPBHurricane05
8:06 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
It really don't have a chance to get real bad does it? With it being close to the gulf.

WHAT A FUNNY JOKE, it wond stregnthen too bad since its close to the Gulf, hmm... which storm should i use for this example, too many, Rita, Katrina, Dennis, Ivan, with a bigg Eddy in the gulf, under right conditions it could rapidly intensify
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
733. CaneAddict17
12:09 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
There goes the pressure tendency back up...
Caribbean blob buey tendency
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732. StoryOfTheCane
8:08 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
WPB, i think you are trying to post the URL of the site, and not the actual URL of the pic
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730. 1900hurricane
7:04 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 6:46 PM CDT on September 26, 2006.

what the heck, how come i cant post images from the navy but 1900 can, thats no fair, i want my mommy!!


The navy images have really long URLs, so make sure you get it all! The complete URL for the Ioke image I posted is http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/CPAC/01C.IOKE/ssmi/geovis/20060904.1947.f14.x. geovis.01CIOKE.65kts-976mb-325N-1475E.31pc.jpg. Long...
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729. jake436
12:05 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 12:00 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

So does anyone think the blob in the Carribean is gonna mount to anything and can it end up in the GOM? It really don't have a chance to get real bad does it? With it being close to the gulf.



Dats funny rite der!!!
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728. WPBHurricane05
8:05 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
727. tropicfreak
8:05 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us The wave in the central Caribbean looks very orgainized. has the potential to develop into a depression any time now.
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725. StoryOfTheCane
8:03 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i was talking about the strong ITCZ in the Central and Eastern Atlantic, havent seen it so defined in awhile
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724. WPBHurricane05
8:02 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
el espanol era demasiado duro para usted?

the spanish somethin something something something

andonde vas??
Como te llama??
note ll is pronounced as english y
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
723. hurricane23
8:03 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
(NHC 8:05 Discussion on Caribbean Flare-up)

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS IN THE
WRN PORTION AROUND 80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 78W-83W...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA. THIS SEEMS
MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A WELL DEFINED
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE
REGION NOT FALLING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. TRADES
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ON THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC
HIGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH LOWER PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA.
SIMILAR TRADES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13707
722. StoryOfTheCane
8:03 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
otherwise referred to as the COMMAND button
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721. StoryOfTheCane
8:02 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i think my control is a pc's windows button maybe??
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720. sandcrab39565
6:59 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Rand, The winds that should steer the Carib. Blob appear that they will push it over the Yucatan. Whats your thoughts.
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719. StoryOfTheCane
8:01 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
sorry im on a Mac so my keys do different things then a PC
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718. WPBHurricane05
8:01 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
its just the Navy i cant figure out, i have a windows XP
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
716. StoryOfTheCane
7:57 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
el espanol era demasiado duro para usted?
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714. catastropheadjuster
11:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
So does anyone think the blob in the Carribean is gonna mount to anything and can it end up in the GOM? It really don't have a chance to get real bad does it? With it being close to the gulf.
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713. WPBHurricane05
7:55 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
too hard, i give up, just like spanish
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
712. StoryOfTheCane
7:56 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
or is it just the waves embedded in it?
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711. Hellsniper223
11:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Looks like that arm of convection is reaching toward that low that was on the charts earlier.
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710. StoryOfTheCane
7:54 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
itcz is lookin extra strong today, any reason for that?
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708. StoryOfTheCane
7:51 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
im not gonna stop watching it until it fades a lot more then this.
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707. hurricane23
7:50 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Seems like cloud tops have warmed a bit over the western caribbean.SEE HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13707

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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