96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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807. stormybil
1:06 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
looks like a good wave inthe caribien isnt this where ivan was in 04 and does this have a chance to form . the question is will head to the north . watch caribien is starting early now hmmmmmmmm ?
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804. WPBHurricane05
9:03 PM EDT on September 26, 2006


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802. Tazmanian
5:56 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
as you can see this map is showing 30kts to 35kts with 96L i think 96L sould be a TD 9 or a TS by now dont you think
lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
800. eye
12:57 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
well, kyle will be disappointed, his blob does not even look like it will be alive in the AM
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799. moonlightcowboy
12:52 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Caribbean looks to have a MLB possiblity...whoa, those temps, shoot...bares watching for sure.
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798. JUSTCOASTING
12:56 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Iwasin ft myers in a swimming pool with my daughter and her friends beautiful day could not tell anyhting was in the area.They were off school because of Katrina
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797. 1900hurricane
7:52 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Thanks STL again.

GO ASTROS!!! the game is on now, if anyone's interested.
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796. hurricane23
8:52 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Here is a water vapor image of Katrina right over me.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
795. WPBHurricane05
8:49 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Katrina was an 80 MPH hurricane while hitting Miami-Dade, Broward, and Monroe counties, it was on a forcast projectory to hit us, but it jogged to the SW, and you know the rest, all we got here was a little rain, and 20 MPH winds, which is much less than the damage in SW Dade, and downtown Ft. Lauderdale, major flooding in SW Dade, windows shattered from buildings in Ft. Lauderdale
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794. ricderr
12:50 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
good evening fellow bloggers...old storm night?...gotta love slow time in the tropics
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793. sandcrab39565
7:51 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
SWLA, my advice was if you are worried go home we need the space for those here that dont have a home anymore.
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791. refill
8:41 PM AST on September 26, 2006
Good night. What about the wave that is exit Africa or the other one? Any chance to develop and go to the Islands and Puerto Rico. I see the 18Z GFS and I see nothing.

Is great to see some spanish stuff in the blog. Que bueno que veo el espaņol aqui.
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790. sandcrab39565
7:46 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
SWLA, I understand but we had hosts of tent cities and folks from Cal. and Alaska and places of that nature here. It was a time that I was exstremely being questioned oh what do we do and were to go.lol
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788. hurricane23
8:47 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Here is Katrina approaching my area...You can almost make out the beginings of an eye on her.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
787. auburn (Mod)
7:47 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
PENSACOLA, Fla. (AP) - After spending months in remote northwest Florida swamps searching for the ivory-billed woodpecker, researchers say they have seen and heard the rare bird once believed to be extinct.

You people in Fl. have all the luck.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50222
786. WPBHurricane05
8:43 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
old joke:

1 Frances
2 Jeanne
3 Wilma
4 Sale
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783. 1900hurricane
7:40 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
How low would Wilma's pressure be if it was over the W. Pac.?
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782. WPBHurricane05
8:41 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Frances
Jeanne
Wilma
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781. SWLAStormFanatic
12:39 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Crab...panic...how about when Rita was a Cat 5 headed straight for us here in SWLA. The Katrina disaster added to our anxiety.

I think everybody on the NGulf coast was skittish about that time actually.
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780. WPBHurricane05
8:41 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
went thru that storm as well
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779. WPBHurricane05
8:39 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
oops, this image is 2 years, 2 hours old:

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777. WPBHurricane05
8:37 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
2 years ago today:

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776. weatherguy03
8:38 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
0036Z.
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775. sandcrab39565
7:35 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
SWLA, it may have been overshadowed but it created tremendous anxiety in the Katrina stricken area. It also paniced a lot of responders than had came from other parts of the country as well.
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774. WPBHurricane05
8:36 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
2036Z = 8:36 PM correct?
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773. WPBHurricane05
8:34 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
what time is it right now in zulu time (8:35 EDT)
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772. SWLAStormFanatic
12:32 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
WPB, Rita is referred to as the forgotten storm. Since Katrina struck four weeks previously and caused so much death and destruction it overshadowed Rita.
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771. 1900hurricane
7:32 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
If anyone hasn't seen my blog yet, I encourage y'all to visit it.
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770. 1900hurricane
7:32 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Rita (the picture says so)
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769. hurricane23
8:31 PM EDT on September 26, 2006

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
768. weatherguy03
8:30 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Thats a good point Michael. Reasons why the NHC is not excited about this one. I still wouldn't count it out yet.
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767. WPBHurricane05
8:28 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Rita 1900 or Katrina?
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766. hurricane23
8:28 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Those pics have been in my blog for ever....
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
763. 1900hurricane
7:27 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: tropicfreak at 7:25 PM CDT on September 26, 2006.



The sea surface temperatures in the central carribean is extremely warm


That's probably because no big storms have passed over there recently...
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762. tropicfreak
8:27 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
I'm sure they do.
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761. sandcrab39565
7:26 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Rand, mail
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760. 1900hurricane
7:24 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
TWC has recently been calling this one the "Forgotten Storm." Why? I don't know, but I definately remember it.

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758. weatherguy03
8:23 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
I am alittle suprised they said no development that quickly. They must strickly be going on the model runs and pressure tendencies. Both are not showing much, BUT there is an Upper Level High that is building westward. This is an area, that if it does develop, will do so slowly. We may see something later this week or this weekend.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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