96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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906. moonlightcowboy
3:27 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Taz, will there be a 98L invest in the next couple of days?
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905. Tazmanian
8:26 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
jake436 yes i can see
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904. Tazmanian
8:25 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
moonlightcowboy hey there
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903. jake436
3:22 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Oh, hey Taz...didn't see you standing there...we were just talking about, uh, the weather! Yeah, that's the ticket!
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902. moonlightcowboy
3:23 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
....speak of the devil...lol

We called him up.

Hey, Taz!
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901. Tazmanian
8:20 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
hey all
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900. moonlightcowboy
3:16 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Well, sh_ _, and par for the course, my buoy post got in the middle of yall's invest competition...lol, again, understand your sarcasm from earlier, Jake.

...lol, lots of figments of imagination in this place....particularly for the "westerners"...you'd think they were communists sometimes...lol; but, I kinda like 'em -- stems mostly (or should) from fear of a conus landfall...I think hearts are in the right place at least.

Jake, bro...tying up with Taz? That could be uuuuuuuuummm, tazerible...lol
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899. Skyepony (Mod)
3:16 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Yeah I can't truely call it til we run across more info or the next invest is named. As far as 2 invest so close together...quick to forget Florence & her little brother Gordon are we:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
898. Skyepony (Mod)
3:11 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
At 1st when Master's posted about 97L they had the same coordinance, pressure & wind. I had said the same thing. Then Taz noticed the different coordinace & indeed info had changed. There was 2 seperate invests for a short time pretty close to one another.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
897. jake436
3:11 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Jake they updated the navy stuff at 1715, checked the 2:05 discussion which mentioned 1 low 1010mb (which 97L was 1009 & 96L was 1011), the cooridance given in the disscussion were also directly inbetween the coordinace of the 2 invests. Like they averaged the 2. Shortly after 97L was removed. Not sure if they merged or Navy & NHC weren't in agreeance. Still think Taz won cause there was a seperate invest, though small. If the next invest is 97L you can get his WTG. But I think the next one will be 98L.


I'll accept that, but I think 97L never existed. Too close to have two seperate centers. Never saw anything to indicate two seperate systems on any source I have. Just don't be so quick to hand out the prizes-allow time for the instant replay official to look at it first. lol
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896. Skyepony (Mod)
2:56 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Got caught up in Patrap's Delta 2 explosion. Funny how you remember vivid details of your day when something like that blows up. Most notably on that one local news & weather radio told us that a poisonous cloud was coming our way, luckily the wind shifted...

Jake they updated the navy stuff at 1715, checked the 2:05 discussion which mentioned 1 low 1010mb (which 97L was 1009 & 96L was 1011), the cooridance given in the disscussion were also directly inbetween the coordinace of the 2 invests. Like they averaged the 2. Shortly after 97L was removed. Not sure if they merged or Navy & NHC weren't in agreeance. Still think Taz won cause there was a seperate invest, though small. If the next invest is 97L you can get his WTG. But I think the next one will be 98L.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
895. moonlightcowboy
3:03 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Navy site had 96 and 97 on it this morning. Dr. M posted that it, (97's posting) was a glitch I believe I remember.
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893. jake436
3:03 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 7:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

This is from my 6:53 PM GMT post after showing the NHC 2pm on 96L/97L

At 1715 the navy had 97L at 1009 & 96L at 1011mb, looks like they've taken the average & the coordinates as well. Gotta wonder if they even agree?...guess not, they just took 97L down from the navy site...

NHC~ averaged between the 2 invests on everything for the 2:05...Shortly after 97L was removed.


Found it. Thanks Skyepony, although you never gave me the credit. lol Taz, I want my prize back!
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891. Patrap
3:00 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Tropical TidbitLink
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889. jake436
2:54 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 2:54 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

Yeah, Jake saw that considerably earlier today, was a ton of confusion about that this morning...TAZ called it? WTG, Taz!


Not so fast my friend. I'm waiting for the final word from Skyepony, but as far as I can tell, 97L was a figment of somebody's imagination.
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888. Skyepony (Mod)
2:47 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Last year that difference was reduced for the most part by 2/3rds.. There has been some good papers put out on it. Just never saved the links or remembered where they were. The view from the surface blog covered all this in better detail in the last few weeks.

That's a must read blog...Love the tribute to the buoys of Katrina she's got going on in there right now. I was gonna write on that for the anniversery of Katrina had it not been for vaction & Ernesto. I'll never forget the look on the local ch 13 met for NO when he lost his favorite buoy, that he was about to show off at 55' waves. Looked like he'd lost his kid. Ya'll be happy we still got buoys this late in the season.
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886. Patrap
2:54 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Ivans Track &Link Ghost of Ivan
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885. moonlightcowboy
2:52 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Yeah, Jake saw that considerably earlier today, was a ton of confusion about that this morning...TAZ called it? WTG, Taz! (understand your sarcasm, thanks!)
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884. jake436
2:51 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 4:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

From the Navy site....

96LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-214N-490W
97LINVEST.10kts-1009mb-200N-470W
now that they have diffent pics a coordinates up, for each, it is evident...new invest.

Taz wins the prize...
96L must of spawned


This is what I'm referring to-earlier today.
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883. jake436
2:48 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 2:47 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

Jake you miss me? Or was there a buoy fight while I was gone?


Both-needed you to tell me if I won, or, that I won.lol
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882. CybrTeddy
2:46 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Isnt it strange what happen to Ivan when it did
A loop and came back to haunt the Gulf Coast
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880. moonlightcowboy
2:47 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: jake436 at 2:45 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.
Hey Pat, that's like what I was saying earlier to the guy that asked "if this blob developed, it wouldn't do much being so close to the Gulf, right?" I wish I would've had that video to explain to him what storms do when they get into the Gulf!


A G R E E D, Jake and yep, gr8 posts Sky, thanks!
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879. Patrap
2:46 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
..872..wicked bad wind field..
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878. jake436
2:45 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Skyepony, was wondering what happened to 97L. Invest? Or not invest? Actually, was wondering if Taz really "won".
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877. Skyepony (Mod)
2:43 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Jake you miss me? Or was there a buoy fight while I was gone?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
876. Patrap
2:46 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Great post Skyepony..shows the difference in Basins
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874. CybrTeddy
2:44 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Skyepony
I read something about Wilma might having a pressure of 858 on atlantic pressure scale
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872. jake436
2:41 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Hey Pat, that's like what I was saying earlier to the guy that asked "if this blob developed, it wouldn't do much being so close to the Gulf, right?" I wish I would've had that video to explain to him what storms do when they get into the Gulf!
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
871. Skyepony (Mod)
1:26 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
96L
26/2345 UTC 22.7N 50.5W T1.0/1.5 96L
26/1745 UTC 22.9N 50.0W T1.5/1.5 96L
26/1145 UTC 22.5N 48.8W T1.5/1.5 96L

How low would Wilma's pressure be if it was over the W. Pac.?

Usually the average pressure in the W. Pac is much lower than it is in the Atlantic. Hence the reason for the convertion for the 2 basins. Because of the lower pressure, the pressure of the cane has to be lower to achieve the same pressure gradent or winds. One thing that made 2005 so strange was that for alot of the season the average pressure in the Atlantic was near as low as what it would normally be in the W Pac...this was the result of an abnormally weak Bermuda High. We saw it time & time again where a monster storm would have low, low pressure, but weaker winds than what we were used to for the pressure. Wilma was a great example of this. If you click on Wilma & scroll down to the 1st table...There she is bottomed out at 882mb & 160kt winds. Check out the convertion link above...in the Atlantic that pressure would have been ~178kts, the W. Pacific 882mb should be ~151kts. She had 160kts. It was nearly like she was twirling in the average pressure of the W. Pacific as it was. So not perhaps as impressive as one might think. Achieving the 160kts in the pacific on an average year would have ment she would have needed a pressure of ~872mb...
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870. CybrTeddy
2:40 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
May the NHC be with u guys
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868. StoryOfTheCane
10:40 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
very southern area of "the blob" looks like it still has some fight left in it...btw there are no buoys close enough to give sufficient data for this area.

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865. jake436
2:35 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 2:34 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

Three buoys to watch in the Caribbean: 42058 in east central, 42057 in north-mid area, 42056 just south of the Yucatan Channel.

...checked them an hour or so ago and pressure was rising...but good ones to watch for slight development maybe.



You might wanna go back and read earlier in the blog before you decide to refer to buoys. Apparently it will only make you a wishcaster if you utilize factual evidence from reliable sources such as buoys to come to any sort of conclusion about tropical systems. I believe the correct protocol here is to go with what the NHC says, nothing more, nothing less. We're not allowed to discuss potential based on what we actually find on our own, according to some. Just be careful...don't confuse things with facts.
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864. fllamorgan
2:28 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Patrap.... Jim Cantore pic was very funny !!!
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863. kmanislander
2:33 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
well I'm gonna call it a night
see what the blob looks like in the am
no doubt another big flareup overnight

have a good one all
tomorrow
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862. moonlightcowboy
2:18 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Three buoys to watch in the Caribbean: 42058 in east central, 42057 in north-mid area, 42056 just south of the Yucatan Channel.

...checked them an hour or so ago and pressure was rising...but good ones to watch for slight development maybe.
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861. jake436
2:31 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: Patrap at 2:30 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

he was peaking..LOL!..and she kinda duh!


That was kinda funny! (except for the picture behind him on the screen)
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859. jake436
2:26 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Skyepony, are you here?
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858. kmanislander
2:26 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
wow was that THE Chad Myers all riled up ??
see what storms can do LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.