96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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54. Melagoo
11:24 AM EDT on September 26, 2006
I heard on the news that the earth's temperature is at it's highest in 1,000,000 years Dr. Gray your thoughts?
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53. highndry
3:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
okay, I may not know from hurricanes (although I'm learning thanks to you all), but from Tornadoes I KNOW. An F4 is BAD news. That's one of those house-goes-to-Oz type storms. I sure hope that was one was out in the sticks and only succeeded in scattering a few cornstalks around. The most amazing thing I ever saw was among tornado debris - I saw a playing card imbedded into a 2X4, no joke.
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51. spongeworthy
3:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
HaHaHaHa....Too Funny

Did you see the gopher in that shot. That was just too funny....LMAO
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50. cajunkid
10:22 AM CDT on September 26, 2006
need more coffee after that game last night
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49. cajunkid
10:20 AM CDT on September 26, 2006
thanks!
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47. cajunkid
10:18 AM CDT on September 26, 2006
Where did Jeff post about it?
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45. Skyepony (Mod)
3:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Oh good I see Jeff posted about it while I was checking it out...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39438
43. gninraelyrt
3:09 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Is it possible for the Bermuda High to have a strong or weak presence? Can it actually help strengthen a hurricane? When was the Bermuda high first discovered? Why does this phenomenon exist?
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42. MTJax
3:12 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
here is the tail on the FL front

06Z surface analysis
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41. Skyepony (Mod)
2:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Trying to figure out this 97L bit....

on Navy main site other than a few things on the right we got no updates for the last 6 hours on 96L. 97L shows the exact same updated pics as 96L with nothing else new...as if they were the same storm. The back up navy site has no 97L.

The model run depicted on HCW (the spam down there) has it start at 62W which isn't even in the navy map. The properties on that map say 97L...but if you go to the sfwmd site there is no 97L... & thats inished off the bottom(way to far south) of the inverted V wave that is infront of 96L(also the dates are a few 24 & 25 runs?), it brought rain to hispanolia yesterday..The bulk has now moved north of there & is east of the Bahamas with circulation getting started, big lack of convection. I suspect if there is a 97L, that maybe where. I kinda suspect 97L is just 96L & had to be renamed due to technacal diffaculties.
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40. MTJax
3:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
The LOW in the Carrebean seems to have diverged itself into a broad area that should not form anything now. There was not enough convergence at the low levels to supply the divergence in the upper levels.
The front in FL has a tail that should be monitored for a few days.
TD is possible in 24 hours but will not effect any land. I can honestly say with good certainity that we do not have any need to watch today. That is unless you want to watch the TD come together.

24 hour surface forecast
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39. gninraelyrt
3:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Thanks again dobson.
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38. Patrap
3:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..Cool Story Goofoff..got the da-da scared outta me in Okinowa in 83..when returning Sr-71..(to Kadena AFB,Naha)..blazed across Red Beach in Kin where I was ..and did a 4 -point roll down the beach full of Drunk Jarheads who just whooped & hollered like rabid Saints fans!..LOL
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37. rwdobson
3:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
the bermuda high does move, but a lot of times it stays in one general area for most of hurricane season.
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35. gninraelyrt
3:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
So the Bermuda high never stages itself at a consistent location, is that right dobson? Thanks for your input BTW.
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34. rwdobson
2:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"Or is this a hush-hush operation that bloggers aren't entitled to know?"

These data are publically available, but they may be waiting to release them until after they have completed quality control review on the chemical measurements. All emission and air quality data collected by the federal government is public data.
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33. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:56 PM JST on September 26, 2006
..or there are two centers for 96L. the NRL is good at renaming invests if the center changes and the original area that was the center hasn't dissipated.

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32. rwdobson
2:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"It seems to me that the Bermuda high is bending all the systems eastward. Is this what the Bermuda high is supposed to do? Why didn't it have this affect last year?"

it did do that last year. but last year the high was further west, causing the storms to turn north and then east when the storms were further west...
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31. gninraelyrt
2:53 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Dr. Masters - is the pollution study going on in Houston going well? I'd be curious to see if the warmer weather and the fact that Houston sits in a low elevation has caused pockets of dangerous pollution levels to spawn in its environment. Any words? Or is this a hush-hush operation that bloggers aren't entitled to know? I'll understand if it's the later. Any update would be welcomed news Dr. M. Thanks.
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28. dacajun
2:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Fine...let something develop in the GOM. The Saints defensive line will just push it out to sea!
Don't know about you patrap...but I'm pretty hungover this morning...but it's a good pain.
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26. gninraelyrt
2:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Is there little chance that an African-borne tropical disturbance could make it into the Carribean/GOM heading into the mont of October. It seems to me that the Bermuda high is bending all the systems eastward. Is this what the Bermuda high is supposed to do? Why didn't it have this affect last year? Am I missing something obvious? Help me understand.
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25. JeffMasters (Admin)
2:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
As far as I can tell, the Navy's designation of 97L is a mistake. NHC is only issuing model runs for 96L, and these were updated at 9am EDT this morning. The 97L model runs posted on hardcoreweather.com are old, there is nothing in the Caribbean to worry about today.

Jeff Masters
24. Melagoo
10:43 AM EDT on September 26, 2006
Good morning!

Patrap I don't think anybody could have beat the Saints last night ....
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20. moonlightcowboy
2:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
What is the April 1st? Doc makes no mention of 97L yet the Navy has it up. If you look at those models, it's a Caribbean storm? What gives? Can someone plz get this straightened out?

TIA
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19. gbreezegirl
2:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
So what is this 97L? The NHC models take it right through the chute!
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18. pottery
10:30 AM AST on September 26, 2006
I am confused?? Where exactly is 97L????
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17. Patrap
2:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Taz new invest tool..Link
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16. spongeworthy
2:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I love stalled fronts and that ain't no lie.....
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15. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Whats going to pop first.The GOM ..or the Carr?
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14. Patrap
2:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..Like the Topic says..the Conus fronts and the dangling lows that can ride up them..as fast moving intensifying Systems,,..are the ones to watch for.We will watch them each as they head south
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12. CloudyIdeas
2:09 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I am in Florida, on the east coast. I am VERY happy to hear that things are quiet for now. My guard is still up for awhile yet. I have Wilma on my mind.
NO STORMS .....PLEASE !!
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11. GoofOff
10:05 AM EDT on September 26, 2006
Taz, the Navy is still showing 96L as well as adding 97L. They are fairly close to each other, but am sure they are separate systems at least for now. No one else has posted 97L as far I could tell a few minutes ago. Neither of them look very threatening at the moment, but the weather is always subject to change.
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10. The32ndDegree
2:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Hey - wait a minute. The model runs for 97L that are featured on HCW's site show it initialized at about 12.5N, 62.0W - the Navy site has it at about 20N, 47W already...what's up with that?

32*
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9. gninraelyrt
1:53 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
That disturbance 96L clearly has a chance to intensify, but it's another harmless tropical weather disturbance that's heading out east. It seems to me that things are quieting down in the Atlantic, but I do agree with Dr. M. that a few more tropical disturbances (depressions, storms, or perhaps a weak hurricane) may still be in the works before the end of TWO '06. It's been. Hurricane Katrina stricken New Orleans victims saw their home team win their third straight. Congrats! You guys deserve to relish in their success. Dr. M.- I know you may not wish to cover this, but I must ask you- Will you give the bloggers any kind of update on how the Houston pollution study is going? This hurricane season isn't posing much of a threat and I thought that maybe throwing in a little about that study may or may not create more traffic on you blog. Just a thought. Thanks.
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7. HCW
2:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
INVEST 97L is up with models runs posted

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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