96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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107. snowboy
4:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Not to worry folks, whether there's one or two invests out there, we do not yet have even a tropical disturbance - all will become clear with the passage of time.. In the meantime, great to see football being played in NO again!
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106. Skyepony (Mod)
4:40 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 13N
DRIFTING WEST. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR JUST DRIFTING WEST DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N
TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.
MT

This tiny wave spawned 96L has been slightly infront of it for days recieving little mention...the low that made 96L was forced away from it. The wave has slowed & I guess, formed a second small circulation, with a lower pressure (97L). One or the other will have to form...until they are done fighting it out we shouldn't see much developement, which would help it get farther west before (if it does) develop. RGB is better for viewing though 97L doesn't stand out unless your looking for it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
105. jake436
4:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 4:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

I can't say for sure Stormybil.....just a bad feeling. I'm not very good at identifying disturbances on the sat pics. It's just a gut feeling something bad is going to happen


I have a book about Hurricane Camille as seen through the eyes of survivors, and there is one survivor, a doctor, who expressed that he had several anxiety attacks, before anxiety attacks were popular, in the days preceding Camille. He explained that it was just a feeling of "impending doom". He too had a bad feeling.
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103. stormybil
4:44 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
oh ok thanks 27 . but i still only see 96l . is this what you felling ? but the little blow up east of the islands looks to have a little punch too .
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102. jake436
4:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Skye, I'm not arguing, I promise. But that looks like the same exact location, one llc and seperated convection. I have the Navy site on my favorites and had already looked at it. I've checked every view I have and just don't see it. There is a little convection blowing up as we speak at about 16N 54 W, but that's not the coordinates given, and it is small stuff.
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101. ihave27windows
4:40 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I can't say for sure Stormybil.....just a bad feeling. I'm not very good at identifying disturbances on the sat pics. It's just a gut feeling something bad is going to happen.
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100. jake436
4:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 4:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

I'm sitting here thinking I should know who Mario Williams is.....Texan Rookie?

I don't get bad feelings very often Jake....but when I do.....



Mario Williams is who the Texans passed on Reggie Bush to pick...kinda funny that you don't know who he is! #1 pick in the draft!

I hope your bad feelings aren't as accurate as mine. If you recall my post from a few days back, I told you I promised my parents about 21 years ago that I would never evacuate again. But as Katrina entered the Gulf, I made my plan and brought them with me and my wife and kids. I too had a bad feeling.
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99. ihave27windows
4:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I love the Astros......the Texans embarrass me....I think I could offer Carr better pass protection than the overpaid neanderthals on the offensive line.
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98. Skyepony (Mod)
4:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
97L look above big pic at coordinates, pressure & etc.

now 96L
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97. Chicklit
4:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
27Windows' barometer is dropping, ut oh, watch out!
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96. HobeSoundShudders
4:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
re: jake436 at 4:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

I only see one disturbance there...and it is 96L as far as I can tell. Taz can win, that's OK, but I don't see two disturbances. Give me a link that shows two seperate disturbances. " try which i posted much earlier wondering why there were two "http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm" jo
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95. stormybil
4:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
bad fellings about what 27 please share
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94. ihave27windows
4:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I'm sitting here thinking I should know who Mario Williams is.....Texan Rookie?

I don't get bad feelings very often Jake....but when I do.....
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91. jake436
4:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
...but there is something about this one. Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about it.


Think happy thoughts, you guys have Mario Williams!
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90. stormybil
4:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
i dont see 2 either unless they talking about the little dot ,of red close to the islands at 20 n but its too small to be 97l ?
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89. jake436
4:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I only see one disturbance there...and it is 96L as far as I can tell. Taz can win, that's OK, but I don't see two disturbances. Give me a link that shows two seperate disturbances. I see that there are two seperate sets of coordinates, but I see nothing at one of them. I think the 20.5N 49.?W is possibly the LLC location, and the convection is seperate from it. But as stated before, I am not a meteorologist...in fact, I haven't even stayed at a cheap hotel lately.
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88. ihave27windows
4:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Thank you Skye....as you are probably aware, I don't tend to get in a tizzy about invests.....I like to consider my self comedic relief...but there is something about this one. Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about it.

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87. Skyepony (Mod)
4:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Most models on 96L missed the west movement for a bit, none saw the spawning...Gfdl now thinks it will live beyond 24 hrs...they have done better.

Also 96L has current info up on it as 97L is just getting it's 1st passes in...they are very close to one another.
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86. Skyepony (Mod)
4:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
When Masters wrote that, the Navy site was showing the same pic & coordinates for both (I checked it out at the same time), came up with the same thing....that has changed though as they have seperate coordinates & pressures & winds....
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85. ihave27windows
4:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
What about the models Skye....were they accurate?
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84. Skyepony (Mod)
4:08 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
From the Navy site....

96LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-214N-490W
97LINVEST.10kts-1009mb-200N-470W
now that they have diffent pics a coordinates up, for each, it is evident...new invest.

Taz wins the prize...
96L must of spawned

from the 8am
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N49W. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MT
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82. jake436
4:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I'm gonna go ahead and take Dr. Masters side for now, if that's OK.
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78. jake436
4:10 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: JeffMasters (Admin) at 2:50 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

As far as I can tell, the Navy's designation of 97L is a mistake. NHC is only issuing model runs for 96L, and these were updated at 9am EDT this morning. The 97L model runs posted on hardcoreweather.com are old, there is nothing in the Caribbean to worry about today.

Jeff Masters



So you don't have to search for it...hope this helps.
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77. jake436
4:08 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
97L is at 20N and 47W i hop this helps a little


97L doesn't exist, Taz. Read the Doc's 2:50 post.
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75. leftovers
4:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Seeing some real dark colors in the West Carib. Snowman might have something.
74. jake436
3:55 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
The mass of clouds in the Caribbean, not yet impressive enough to be called a blob, is situated right about where this Link buoy is. As you can see, the pressures are high and rising. This is possibly atrributed to the extreme pressure being released from the city of New Orleans as soon as that punt was blocked for a touchdown early in the first quarter. Several subsequent pressure releases occurred throughout the game, and should serve to keep any low pressure away from the city for some time now. The entire region is on too much of a high to allow for any lows! ***This is not a professional meteorologists opinion-just a proud native son talking and walking on cloud nine! Thanks Saints, and thanks Saints fans for believing.
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73. gninraelyrt
3:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
LOL Patrap - (Ice humor) :)
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72. TheSnowman
11:52 AM EDT on September 26, 2006
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
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69. StormJunkie
3:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
After noon All!

Been so busy lately. Will be very glad when move is over.

Thanks for the links Pat...Have gotten some great info from those links you post :)

See y'all later. Back to work.
SJ
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67. gninraelyrt
3:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I don't like the sound of the world being hotter than normal. That can have a devastating effect on our ecosystem. Lakes can continue to dry up. Streams and rivers could digress to a trickles. Storms can become more ferocious, but less frequent leading to longer droughts that can kill crops. Many times hotter weather causes people to become more stressed or violent. Vehicles take a toll under hotter weather conditions. Don't get too depressed folks. Maybe another Ice Age is imminent in the whole scheme of things.
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66. Patrap
3:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Fujiwhara effectLink
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64. robinvtx
3:41 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
patrap your link was interesting and it said dr neil frank the then NHC director - one of our houston weathermen is dr neil frank. one in the same? unbelievable
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63. Patrap
3:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
A tropical tidbitLink
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61. Patrap
3:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Storm Surge ..Beau rivage...28-29th Aug 05Link
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59. highndry
3:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
golf, echo
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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