96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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157. auburn (Mod)
12:31 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Patrap...you are getting good with the youtube links...going to have to start calling you "The Link Master"...lol
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155. voit
5:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
well RWdobson, say what you want. I just laugh out loud. In another token, the fact that we had record highs in January does NOT prove anything either. Nothing at all ! The fact that January was so warm in the US was because we had a powerful Pacific Jet dominating much of the month and lack of blocking (-NAO) over Greenland. At the same token, it was very cold in Russia, which is a much larger area than the lower 48 states combined. Don't forget that Canada had the coldest summer ever in 2004 and it snowed in Germany, but very little was mentioned about that.

And the events listed on my commentary are not short term. If you look into the site I pasted, these "events" now occur more often in the last 7 years or more. Heavier snows, record cold, and the like.

Go to the beach at low tide. Are beach front houses under 5 feet of saltwater yet, as some people suggested 27 years ago ?? Obviously not ! These are all lies by the so called "crises media" in this country trying to brainwash Americans into believing that American technology and SUV's somehow caused "katrina" or climate change. People need to throw that stuff in the trash were it belongs. They are trying to brainwash our kids with those lies, just like government schools.

Have a nice day and better get some long johns ready and some jackets for the future.....

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153. stormybil
5:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
so is 97 going to form before 96 and if so where will it head thanks . also the blob in the carribien is lokking better too
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152. Patrap
5:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..HAL..open the pod door..please..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
151. jake436
5:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: Melagoo at 5:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

The article isn't a conspiracy therorist saying this it came from a NASA scientist .... I'm not following .... it doesn't say 100 years it says 1,000,000 years .... I don't know how they measure it.



I think TWC probably meant to say 1,000,000 years as well, but they have absolute idiots that can't keep up with the teleprompter that work during the middle of the day. I don't think the NASA scientist is a conspiracy theorist, I think he falls into the category of alarmists that I also mentioned.
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149. Patrap
5:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..One for ihave27windows..Link
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147. Melagoo
1:22 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
The article isn't a conspiracy therorist saying this it came from a NASA scientist .... I'm not following .... it doesn't say 100 years it says 1,000,000 years .... I don't know how they measure it.
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145. jake436
5:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 5:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

Good morning Saddle.....everyone's making fun of my "bad feelings


I didn't make fun of your "bad feelings". I made fun of the Houston Texans. I fear your bad feelings, and respect them.
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144. rwdobson
5:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
wasn't making fun of your feelings, 27, but i did think it was odd that someone then suddenly popped up and said "and according to this book, people had bad feelings before camille too!"
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143. jake436
5:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Besides all that, every American could start walking everywhere they go, and we could shut down every factory or refinery, even get rid of farting cows, and China would still be destroying the earth. We don't hold a candle to them when it comes to pollutants, not even close.
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142. rwdobson
5:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
People, try this link for some basic info on paleoclimatology. If you don't even know how scientists ascertain past climate conditions, you can't really add much to the debate. It also has good reference info on climate changes that have happened over the long- and short-term.

Link
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141. ihave27windows
5:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Please do Pat....
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140. Patrap
5:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..cheer up windows ..can I play ya a song?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
139. THUNDERPR
5:20 PM GMT on Septiembre 26, 2006
new update of the bouy at 1pm( 14.50 N 53.02 W 0
West winds ( 260 deg true) 29.95 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling
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138. ihave27windows
5:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Good morning Saddle.....everyone's making fun of my "bad feelings".
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137. Patrap
5:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..pics of guy getting ticket,,now posted on my blog..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
136. jake436
5:14 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: photorescues at 5:12 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

re: Melagoo at 3:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006. I heard on the news that the earth's temperature is at it's highest in 1,000,000 years Dr. Gray your thoughts?

Well, I'm not Dr. Gray, however I would like someone tell me the person's name taking the temperature readings a million years ago.



I just heard on TWC that in 45 years, the temp will be the hottest it's been in the last 100 yrs! I'm with Voit about the media. They can't even get together and present the same "facts". In the book to which I referred earlier about Camille, there is a brief history of storms affecting the Gulf region, and it was way more active back in the mid 1800's, around the time of the Civil War. 2004 with its 4 Florida storms had nothing on that era. Then there would be like 30-40 years without a landfall. As I've said many times before, it's cyclical. Just didn't have the conspiracy theorists and alarmists back then.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
135. THUNDERPR
5:14 PM GMT on Septiembre 26, 2006
hi guys this bouy near 14.50 N 53.02 W has wnw winds and the preasure are falling WNW ( 290 deg true) 29.96 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
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134. Melagoo
1:18 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
I don't know how they measure it ... I just reported it .... ?
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133. Melagoo
1:15 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Earth's temperature nears million-year high

Earth may be close to the warmest it has been in the last million years, especially in the part of the Pacific Ocean where potentially violent El Nino weather patterns are born.

James Hansen, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, says this does not necessarily mean there will be more frequent El Ninos, which can disrupt normal weather around the world.

But he says it could well mean that these wild patterns will be stronger when they occur.

The El Nino phenomenon is an important factor in monitoring global warming, according to a paper by Mr Hansen and colleagues published in the current Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Link
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130. rwdobson
5:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
voit, the fact that we have record lows this year does not prove or disprove anything. we also have had record highs this year. including all-time records for warmest months, like january.

when you try to use short term events to prove your point, you are using the same methods as the people you are opposing. your statement that "it is getting colder, not warmer" is completely unsupported by any meaningful evidence.
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128. photorescues
5:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
re: Melagoo at 3:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006. I heard on the news that the earth's temperature is at it's highest in 1,000,000 years Dr. Gray your thoughts?

Well, I'm not Dr. Gray, however I would like someone tell me the person's name taking the temperature readings a million years ago.
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127. jake436
5:08 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: HobeSoundShudders at 5:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

jake436 you have mail jo


Back atcha.
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126. voit
4:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Interesting article from the NHC suggesting that hurricanes are getting weaker, not stronger. Also we have less U.S. landfalls since 1950:

Interesting study suggesting that hurricane intensity has DECREASED in the Atlantic since 1950, (according to the NHC) and so have landfalls in the USA. Global cooling ?? More ULL's ?? More coldfronts headed further south into the Atlantic ?? More shear maybe ?? Even JB of AccuWx made a study over a period of 10 years, indicating that in the last 10 years, hurricane activity has decreased by 4.2 in the Pacific, and increased at the same rate in the Atlantic - so the net change is ZERO. So where is the increase in Hurricanes? The chart below (derived from data at the National Hurricane Center site) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml#history shows the number of Hurricanes making landfall in the United States in each of the three 50-year periods from 1850 to 2000. Looking carefully at the data, far more hurricanes hit the US between 1850 and 1900. The number of US landfalling hurricanes actually went down starting about 1900, and noticeably so starting about 1950.


In additon, now that I'm at at, I wish some of the media people would log into the site called http://iceagenow.com

An excellent site with links to growing glaciers, snow and record lows updates for the U.S., and links to snow, cold and weather extremes happening worldwide. I'm posting this after someone brought it to my attention about some ludicrous news item ticker suggesting that it's supposedly warmer than a million years ago. What a complete outright lie !
Only 1,000 years ago, Vikings living in South Greenland enjoyed an ice free location at that time. Today that area is totally ice covered. Glaciers in central Greenland are growing at 7.2 milers per year and most other glaciers are now growing in recent years. Plus didn't we just get through a summer blizzard in Colorado which dumped over 3 feet of snow in the mountains with record cold in six different states ??? If we had seen record highs, it would have been plastered on every newspaper in the United States of course. But did any anybody bother to report the RECORD LOWS ?? Even Dr Langscheidt, solar scientist, expects a little ice age by about 2030 based on the approaching Gleissburg Minimum solar cycle, plus a research meteorologist I came across expects the same due to increasing OLR (outgoing long wave radiation), increasing snow depth across the hemisphere since 1998, fresh water accumulation in the Atlantic, and other factors. Also Alan Caruba and Phil Brennan have some excellent commentaries on that site.

Plus most of the record low temps in the United States have occurred since 1970, according to another source from a private weather firm. In 2000/01 winter, it fell to -94 F in Siberia, a possible new all-time record low for the northern Hemisphere, according to Intellicast. http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1217/ Also according to John Christy, atmospheric professor, temps in the upper atmosphere have been coming down for decades. In the last two winters alone, blizzards and snowstorms have been reported in Algeria, even down to the Sahara desert regions ! From http://iceagenow.com under the link http://www.iceagenow.com/Global_Warming_Myth.htm or see http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=12699


I no longer subscribe to any newspapers in this country anywhere since 1996. I'm sick and tired of these people that control the news media in this country. Normally, if I catch an article anywhere (hard to avoid sometimes) about how much warmer it's getting, I tear it apart and throw in the city dumpster.

It's getting colder, not warmer.

Ken
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125. ihave27windows
5:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
The sign said long haired freaky people, need no apply....
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124. Patrap
5:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..plus watching guy get ticket across the street ..LOL..The sign says 20..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
123. ihave27windows
5:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Sorry, that was harsh......but I didn't forecast anything...as far as I know that "bad feeling" could be about me in particular.
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122. Patrap
5:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Am enjoying leftover bar-b-cue Falcon,..er Bird..er...chicken with salad for lunch...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
120. jake436
4:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 4:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

jake~ I think it's because of the interaction with that little wave & there must be another low around there. They're quick to rename things when other componants come to play. 96L circulation is certainly better, but 97L has a lower pressure & looks to be moving up toward under the convection. If that Low pressure (97L) gets the convection while 96L ciculation outruns it due to shear & a deppression forms, then it would be documented as how it went down right...technacalities..


I'll buy that. I just don't believe there are two tropical entities there, at least not in the long run. They will either beat each other up or join forces, which will allow for none, or one to emerge. I agree that the competition will keep them weak, therefore allowing one to drift west with little or no north component, and at that time, intensification could be more likely, depending on the conditions in the area at that time. Bottom line, there are NO tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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119. Skyepony (Mod)
4:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
LB is now east of the Bahamas, north of hispanolia...this was the wave that 96L came out of. Low pressure formed, then was sheared away from the wave which started getting slight mentions in the dissussions again. It's that line jutting out of the convection to the SW.

gotta run, bbl
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116. auburn (Mod)
11:59 AM CDT on September 26, 2006
now ...back to the weather.....

forecast for tonight...dark....... scattered sunshine tomorrow...
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115. jake436
4:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: hurrycain at 4:57 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

Any thoughts on the storms coming out of the Caribbean. Does not appear to have much rotation and could be hendered by the front coming from the GOM. ANY THOUGHTS....


Check the link I posted at 4:03. It shows pressures in the area high and rising.
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114. Skyepony (Mod)
4:50 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
jake~ I think it's because of the interaction with that little wave & there must be another low around there. They're quick to rename things when other componants come to play. 96L circulation is certainly better, but 97L has a lower pressure & looks to be moving up toward under the convection. If that Low pressure (97L) gets the convection while 96L ciculation outruns it due to shear & a deppression forms, then it would be documented as how it went down right...technacalities..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 38314
113. hurrycain
4:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Any thoughts on the storms coming out of the Caribbean. Does not appear to have much rotation and could be hendered by the front coming from the GOM. ANY THOUGHTS....
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112. jake436
4:55 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
This tiny wave spawned 96L has been slightly infront of it for days recieving little mention...the low that made 96L was forced away from it. The wave has slowed & I guess, formed a second small circulation, with a lower pressure (97L). One or the other will have to form...until they are done fighting it out we shouldn't see much developement, which would help it get farther west before (if it does) develop. RGB is better for viewing though 97L doesn't stand out unless your looking for it.

Skyepony-I took the weekend off as far as the blog is concerned. Is this the same area kmanislander and I were watching and had officially declared LB?
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111. rwdobson
4:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
wow, forecasting based on bad feelings. a new version of wishcasting?
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110. stormybil
4:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
thanks skye thats the one i was talking about the little one thats the one we should watch
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107. snowboy
4:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Not to worry folks, whether there's one or two invests out there, we do not yet have even a tropical disturbance - all will become clear with the passage of time.. In the meantime, great to see football being played in NO again!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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