96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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257. Skyepony (Mod)
7:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
It's hard not to throw the caribean blob into land with the high over N Mex.
If it was weak it would follow like to the one on the top...stronger the one on the bottom. Unless that high over Mexico goes away quick.


credit cimss~ if you go there, your looking at this in near real time...start hitting the -3hrs button repeatedly & watch the high over Mex. It was way stonger lastnight, looks to be dying... guess we wait & see.
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256. bibballen
2:14 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Bermuda looking more at risk if the thing happens to develop. What is the record for blob persistence anyway? Cold front needs to quit stalling!

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255. auburn (Mod)
2:08 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: Zaphod at 6:14 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

...
I myself sort people into 10 groups to keep things simple...

LOL

1)the haves
2)the have nots
3)the haves who dont wantanyone to know they are haves
4)the have nots who dont wantanyone to know they are have nots
5)the haves who want everyone to know they are haves
6)the have nots who want welfare
7)the haves who want welfare
8)the have nots who think they are haves
9)the have nots who become haves..but don't anyone to know they were ever have nots
10)perfect people
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 549 Comments: 51572
254. weathermanwannabe
7:09 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
While the emphasis here is rightfully shifting towards the GOM/Carr as we enter this part of the season, does anyone have any concerns/comments on the relatively healthy wave moving accross the lower latitudes towards Venezuela....(When they are this "low", they seem to have a better chance of getting into the Caribbean if they develop)..I suppose that 23 would respond, correctly, that we would need to look at the "persitence" of this wave over the next several days..................
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253. caneman
7:12 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Death to all tropical blobs!
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252. LowerCal
6:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: Zaphod at 6:14 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

...
I myself sort people into 10 groups to keep things simple...

LOL
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251. Tazmanian
12:04 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060809 1800 060810 0600 060810 1800 060811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 59.7W 14.1N 62.6W 14.7N 65.1W 15.4N 67.7W
BAMM 13.6N 59.7W 13.8N 63.2W 14.3N 66.5W 14.8N 69.6W
A98E 13.6N 59.7W 14.0N 64.8W 14.2N 69.2W 14.2N 72.8W
LBAR 13.6N 59.7W 14.1N 63.9W 15.1N 67.9W 16.1N 71.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060811 1800 060812 1800 060813 1800 060814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.3W 18.3N 75.2W 20.6N 80.0W 22.0N 83.8W
BAMM 15.4N 72.5W 16.2N 78.0W 17.2N 83.7W 18.2N 89.4W
A98E 14.0N 75.4W 14.3N 79.5W 14.9N 83.5W 16.1N 88.4W
LBAR 17.3N 74.9W 20.0N 79.9W 19.3N 84.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 68KTS 75KTS 82KTS
DSHP 54KTS 68KTS 75KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 27KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 27KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$



is this for 96L?
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249. MTJax
7:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
CMC, NOGAPS, GFS, but not the UKMET make it something over the next few days at varying degrees. None mark it as very serious. All send it into land NW.
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248. reelbull
2:52 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
hey Jake436...you are right about pressure drop...appears to be droping eastward from bouy you cite out along 20N to 15 N

rb
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247. IADCW
7:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
WOW - read alot of prior post to try to keep up to date.

Opinions are like noses - I have one too - so here goes

...We all discriminate every day. You buy one car so you descriminated against the other. Look up the word !

... Oil is a finite resource. It will run out eventually - but who knows when...there are all kinds of guesses out there .. some presented as facts.

Facts are used by both sides of an argument for justification. Facts are interpreted. Example: That wall is Black. Interpretation-It is not truly black proven by microscopic evaluation shows more colors than just black.( a very simple example ).

and...........

That looks like the beginning of a possible problem in the carribean.
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246. Patrap
7:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
.launching the invest sortieLink
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245. Patrap
6:57 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..thats a good pic of trouble ..23..a genesis?
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244. Patrap
6:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..plenty o planes ..plenty guys to do the invests..
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243. hurricane23
2:55 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Here is an IR pic of the area...Persistance is what we are looking for.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
242. Patrap
6:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..we need a Marine Corps SiteLink
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241. Skyepony (Mod)
6:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
The 2:05

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N48.6W. THIS
LOW CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10
MPH. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF
THE LOW PRES CENTER FROM 21N-14N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N DRIFTING WEST. THIS WAVE
HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
RELATED TO THE WAVE.

$$
GR

At 1715 the navy had 97L at 1009 & 96L at 1011mb, looks like they've taken the average & the coordinates as well. Gotta wonder if they even agree?...guess not, they just took 97L down from the navy site...
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240. Patrap
6:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
A polar Buoy..Link
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239. hurricane23
2:48 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Jake436 check this out from the NHC discussion at 2:05...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED NEAR 12N78W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG TRADES OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED AROUND 20 KT
WINDS IN THE AREA..
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
238. Patrap
6:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
NDBC buoysLink
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237. Patrap
6:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..a strong rise..then a sharp drop thereafter..trouble a brewing...
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236. jake436
6:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Link

I posted this link just a couple of hours earlier as pressures were rapidly rising in the area of the Carribbean Blob. Now, according to the same buoy, pressures are falling-need to watch.
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235. Patrap
6:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Fujiwhara effect in English..LOLLink
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234. Patrap
6:40 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
temps as regarding eons ago..recorded in ice core samples from as far as 12 miles deep//also shows atmospheric conditions at sample depths,..from entrapped air bubbles..easy
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233. Patrap
6:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Fujiwhara effectLink
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232. gsquared
6:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Now who was measuring the temperature 1000 years ago ? Al Gore ? Give me a break.
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231. BeverlyHillsFlChick
6:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Auburn umm TD, TS and hurricanes are all weather related...
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230. hurricane23
2:35 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Good afternoon,

The time of year has come were the attention will slowly be shifting closer to home meaning the GOM and the caribbean.Over the past couple of days we have had thunderstorms flare-up on and off in the western caribbean,i think this area will have to be watched as a strong cold-front is set to move into the south east and stall in the GOM and parts of the caribbean sometime this upcoming weekened. Late september to mid october are prime months for tropical development to occur in this region.For right now its just a wait and see situation.Adrian

Here is a visible pic of the area...

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
228. oriondarkwood
1:23 PM EST on September 26, 2006
What letter will we get to this year. I am betting on we get to "L". I still think we still one monster Cat5 before the season is out..

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227. Zaphod
6:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Saddle,
10 groups of people -- those who count in binary and those who don't!

Ba dump bump!
Zap
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225. THUNDERPR
6:23 PM GMT on Septiembre 26, 2006
hi guys see the directions in the winds in the past hour near the bouy 14N 53W the preasure continuing falling and the winds are to the nw.
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
1750 NW ( 305 deg ) 1.2 kts
1740 S ( 173 deg ) 0.8 kts
1730 S ( 189 deg ) 1.0 kts
1720 WSW ( 246 deg ) 1.4 kts
1710 WNW ( 285 deg ) 1.0 kts
1700 NNW ( 339 deg ) 1.0 kts

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224. auburn (Mod)
1:25 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: BeverlyHillsFlChick at 1:25 PM CDT on September 26, 2006.

Don't know if anyone has talked about this yet but does anyone see any spin in this area of the crib.Link

nope not today...thats weather related...lol
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 549 Comments: 51572
223. BeverlyHillsFlChick
6:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Don't know if anyone has talked about this yet but does anyone see any spin in this area of the crib.Link
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222. Patrap
6:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
A tropical tidbitLink
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220. HurricaneMyles
6:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
photorescues,

The FNMOC one I just linked to really inst supposed to be used by the public, but I keep it as backup just incase.
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219. spongeworthy
6:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I like gas hogs and that ain't no lie....
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216. jake436
6:14 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: rwdobson at 6:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

yes, jake, the EFFECTS of GHG emissioons are uncertain. however, the quantities of GHG emitted are not uncertain.


And if we don't know the EFFECTS of GHG emissions, then what difference does the quantities make? Not saying it doesn't make a difference, but what is the difference?
This question cannot be answered with FACTS, because nobody even knows what the EFFECTS are!
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215. MTJax
6:02 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Its there then its not and now on the 2:05p its back again...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
SITUATED NEAR 12N78W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG TRADES OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED AROUND 20 KT
WINDS IN THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE SURFACE ELY
TRADE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF 68W.
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214. photorescues
6:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Why does the Navy have two sites, anyway?
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213. Patrap
6:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
...Ozone layerLink
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212. auburn (Mod)
1:14 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: jake436 at 1:14 PM CDT on September 26, 2006.

Don't worry, it'll be cold once again! Then who will we blame?

Jack frost?
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211. Melagoo
2:14 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
LOL Patrap!
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210. CloudyIdeas
6:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Hello Hobe Sound Shutters. I am in Stuart. Small world.
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209. HurricaneMyles
6:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
HobeSoundShudders,

97L appears to be a mistake. Look at the coordinates, 20N and 47W, theres no low there. Also, check out the other Navy site... no 97L.
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208. Zaphod
6:10 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Ahhh....we've gone from debating weather to global warming to discrimination........


It is human nature to categorize and simplify. Some over-simplify, some generalize specifics, and some hit information overload and reboot.

I myself sort people into 10 groups to keep things simple.
Zap
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207. voit
6:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Go drive your SUV's and race your engines all you want ! I sure do it ! Most of the Co2 release comes from nature, from underwater volcanoes, not man. This has been very well documented in research underwater, but not talked about much, for obvious reasons. Plus the last time we headed into an ice age, CO2 levels rose quickly, and yes, all without humans! Just a typical natural cycle that repeats itself and we are due for it again.

Forget these environmentalists.
We have the cleanist country on earth. Earth takes care of itself and we have over 140+ years of oil left ! And in 20 years from now, we will find additional oil, far more than we expected. We could easily have over 1,000 years left of oil.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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