96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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307. saddlegait
7:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
97L will BE a mistake if it ruins the Saddle's vacation plans!
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306. ricderr
3:47 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i'm just wondering if maybe 97l was some mistake
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305. rwdobson
7:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
the minus button did its job on that massive post...made it go away...but then the blog stayed all wide.
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304. Skyepony (Mod)
7:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
This is from my 6:53 PM GMT post after showing the NHC 2pm on 96L/97L

At 1715 the navy had 97L at 1009 & 96L at 1011mb, looks like they've taken the average & the coordinates as well. Gotta wonder if they even agree?...guess not, they just took 97L down from the navy site...

NHC~ averaged between the 2 invests on everything for the 2:05...Shortly after 97L was removed.

Randrewl~ LOL, yeah I nail it alot with a wait & see...High looked to by dying pretty quick.

Lightnin has moved in...see ya'll later
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303. rwdobson
7:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
the invest numbers cycle, so it's possible there was a 97L earlier this year.
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299. obsessedwweather
7:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Taz-

I agree that the new African wave looks impressive.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
297. hurricane23
3:45 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
That should explode the blog!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
296. WPBHurricane05
3:44 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
there was a 97L, check the navys archive for this year
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
295. hurricane23
3:44 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Here's a visisble shot...


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294. Ron5244
7:40 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
That blob in the Carribean has potential.
"Isaac"(maybe)like Irene?

Irene
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293. hurrycain
7:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Looking at the steering winds for the new Caribbean storm, the west winds which are just above the system will begin to move it towards land. It appears more than likely that this will die out over land in the next two days.
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292. WPBHurricane05
3:40 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
ok all will be fine, we need StormTop to come on here and tell us it wil be a fish storm, he will keep us cool!! i know how to get him on to, watch

Stormtop Stormtop Stormtop
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
291. Eastcoast
7:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
If anyone is intrested ..
Winter Weather Forecast is out.
Maps/Charts/NAO/Major Winter weather discussions here. Winter Prediction
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290. obsessedwweather
7:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
96L also looking more organized???!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
289. ihave27windows
7:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Shouldn't that be "Yo Adrian"?
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288. ricderr
3:38 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
ok...help me out...been actually working most of the day.....last i saw..the nhc had never declared a 97L...was that incorrect?
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287. obsessedwweather
7:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Caribbean looking VERY interesting this afternoon.
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283. hurricane23
3:37 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Hey stromw whats up?Check out how convection has flared up in the caribbean...


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282. WPBHurricane05
3:35 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
so where was 97L located and why did they take it off
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
281. neutrino006
10:35 PM EEST on septembrie 26, 2006
Link
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280. Tazmanian
12:33 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
well any way we now have TD 3C
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276. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
7:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
wow that blob in the carribean keeps expanding and expanding looks like it will cover my screen lol
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275. WPBHurricane05
7:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Taz, isnt that south of the ITCZ?

yes
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273. WPBHurricane05
7:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
what the heck is 97L

we got a new one?
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272. HCW
7:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Sure Tazz :) Have a good day

Link
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271. weathermanwannabe
7:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
How is the shear looking between the wave and the lesser antilles over the next 5 days?.....
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270. Tazmanian
12:29 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
: MTJax i think soo
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269. hurricane23
3:29 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Here is a IR loop of the convection in the western caribbean.As always persistance is key.


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268. MTJax
7:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Taz, isnt that south of the ITCZ?
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267. hurricane23
3:26 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Skyepony the NHC says its drifting to the north very slowly.

THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH
. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
266. Tazmanian
12:25 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
HCW could i have a link to your web site thanks
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265. Utah2Miami
7:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
First of all- Hooray for Zap's Binary joke. I feel nerdlove today. +eep+

Secondly- is this 97L that looks like a screaming comet of water vapor heading for the islands? I know thats just because of its interaction with 96L but it still looks like mean, lean storm brewin' machine.

ahem
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264. Tazmanian
12:23 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
wow evere one take a look at this one wave looking good dont you
lol
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262. MTJax
7:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Taz definitely on the ball too!
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261. HCW
7:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
97L

From FLhurricane.com


Upon zooming in quite a bit on 10N 35W one can make out a weak, but sizable, low level circulation embedded within the northern portion of the ITCZ. Looks like it may stay north enough as to not become devoured back into the ITCZ, and perhaps slowly trend WNW. If that is where they meant to place 97 this all makes more sense (As splitting 96 into two distinct centers at this point seems entirely premature, especially given that the 22.5N 49W coc is so much better developed than the pimple near 20N)
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260. weathermanwannabe
7:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
That chart from Skye would explain why the wave coming off Africa is so elongated....
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259. MTJax
7:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Sky is getting very good
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257. Skyepony (Mod)
7:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
It's hard not to throw the caribean blob into land with the high over N Mex.
If it was weak it would follow like to the one on the top...stronger the one on the bottom. Unless that high over Mexico goes away quick.


credit cimss~ if you go there, your looking at this in near real time...start hitting the -3hrs button repeatedly & watch the high over Mex. It was way stonger lastnight, looks to be dying... guess we wait & see.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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