96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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356. ricderr
4:17 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Repeat of Randrewl:

Put your setting to show 50 comments. That will straighten out your screen.

yes randrewl..please refrain from all non weather related posts......i'm about to get irrated..there's important going ons in the tropics right now......you know..nothing out there..and no one can even find a good blob to watch
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355. rwdobson
8:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
just buy some Ruckinex and it will thin the ruckus out, allowing your coughs to be more productive.
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353. rwdobson
8:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
adjuster: it's because some not-too-savvy person posted a huge picture without re-sizing it...so it caused the entire blog to be wide enough to hold the picture.

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352. catastropheadjuster
8:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Randrewl, Thanks It's back to normal
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350. hurricane23
4:15 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 4:10 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.

or regular size not small.

Here you go.


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349. obsessedwweather
8:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Repeat of Randrewl:

Put your setting to show 50 comments. That will straighten out your screen.

27: You're in comedy mode too. Good to laugh at the end of yet another silly day at work.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
347. catastropheadjuster
8:10 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
On my it's like it's bloated. On mine you have to scroll back and forth to read the whole comment. It's weird.
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345. Hellsniper223
8:08 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
hmm... None of the models are hinting at a development anywhere in the carrib... I'm assuming they'll change their minds within the next 4 days.
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344. Patrap
8:10 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..a place for those who yearn westLink
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343. Randrewl
4:11 PM AST on September 26, 2006
Put your setting to show 50 comments. That will straighten out your screen.
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342. WPBHurricane05
4:10 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
or regular size not small
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
341. Tazmanian
1:09 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
obsessedwweather oh that was this some news i saw for the gulf
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340. ricderr
4:10 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
HEY: Why is the blog so huge?
you know......why do people toss these things up like this..when what should be my perfect response..will get me banned
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339. WPBHurricane05
4:09 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
the blog is small on my computer
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
338. kmanislander
8:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
good afternoon from the Caymans everyone

I see a big flare up to the S of us but so far the pressure is not falling dramatically in that area. I have linked the combined wind and pressure readings for the buoy in that location and you will see that the readings so far are within normal ranges.

The area does have potential to develop though because there is a big High right over the blob
Link
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337. ricderr
4:07 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
it's ok..just had a secretary poke her head through the door....are you singing?....my reply..some people might call it that..oh oh oh feelings
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336. FLKEYSRADIO
4:05 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
What was that rucus?

What rucus?

I was just in my office, and I heard a rucus.
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335. catastropheadjuster
7:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
HEY: Why is the blog so huge?
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334. WPBHurricane05
4:07 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Isaac"(maybe)like Irene?

in Irene my whole neighborhood was under water
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
333. obsessedwweather
8:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Taz-

her some in i saw for the gulf

Not making fun, just don't understand??
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332. ricderr
4:06 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
not worried about any of them yet...once there's a blob...then once that blob starts spinning...then once i know the direction..then..i'll worry....and remember....if they form in the gulf...all westcasting..is perfectly accpetable
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330. stormy3
7:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Guess that's one way to get those pesky little buttons out of reach. by the time you scroll over to them you've forgotten what line you were on and have to start all over.
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329. Hellsniper223
8:02 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Carrib Scares me guys... BOC... I havent looked at yet...
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328. Tazmanian
1:01 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
obsessedwweather huh?
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327. ricderr
4:04 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
dang it 27........at least i didn't know the words...thus the oh oh oh....now i know the words....it will last even longer
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325. obsessedwweather
8:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Taz--

Do you have your own special language/vocabulary????
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
324. rwdobson
8:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
i don't know much about feelings, but i do know that i write the songs that make the whole world sing.
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323. obsessedwweather
7:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Ricderr--

Too funny!!!!!
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321. Chicklit
7:57 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Data! Gimme Data!
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319. GoofOff
3:53 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Well said Randrewl. If that isn't clear to them, nothing will be.
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318. weathermanwannabe
7:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Who hit the margins?........
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317. ricderr
3:54 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
commets any one?
haley's


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316. ricderr
3:53 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
feelings......oh oh oh feelings......oh oh oh feelings....now that song is stuck in my head..thank you very much......
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315. Tazmanian
12:49 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
ok i have some news on the new African wave

...The ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 11n16w 9n30w 8n40w 10n50w 10n60w.
Outside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is from
10n-14n east of 21w to inland in west Africa probably associated
with the next tropical. A 1013 mb low pres is near 15n16w.
The GFS model develops this low and moves mainly north over the
E Atlc. Scattered moderate convection is within 40-50 nm on
either side of the axis from 38w-44w.


her some in i saw for the gulf


as of 1500 UTC...a frontal system extends from central Florida
to the Bay of Campeche. A 1012 mb surface low pres has formed along the frontal boundary near 31n79w. The western portion of
the front...over the Bay of Campeche has become nearly
stationary.


commets any one?

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314. Randrewl
3:52 PM AST on September 26, 2006
I have no feelings either way now about the feelings part of the blog!
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312. Randrewl
3:50 PM AST on September 26, 2006
Skye...that's not what I meant. I meant the other stuff. It was right on it.
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311. ricderr
3:50 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
saddle..aint no weather that brave dear..you're safe..unless you're not safe...and that..is the forecasting waffle...just to keep all posts weather related you purists
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310. obsessedwweather
7:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Randrewl-

Just looking through the blog from earlier today....you were pretty funny with the 'feelings' comments.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
309. weathermanwannabe
7:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Wind shear is pretty low right now in all of our areas of interest

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
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308. WPBHurricane05
3:49 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
the invest numbers cycle, so it's possible there was a 97L earlier this year

no it wasnt, the Navy keeps the last invst. number on the archive as well with any current invst. or storms
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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