96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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407. K8eCane
8:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
oh my
i canNOT believe its been 30 years
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406. rwdobson
8:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
fortunately i was just a young boy in the 70s, too young to go to discos...but now for some bizarre reason all that stuff's coming back.

for some reason, whenever someone puts on Abba, Dancing Queen, at a party, all the women rush out onto the floor...me, i prefer funkier, more soulful stuff. make my funk the p-funk....
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
404. Patrap
8:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Partridgeinvest60sLink
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402. Thundercloud01221991
3:44 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Halfway between Honduras and Jamaica

42057
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
401. K8eCane
8:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
ok yall
i check in and theres a color pic of my teen idol
i'm aging myself, but i actually went to see D.C. in concert when i was 14 years old
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398. Hellsniper223
8:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 8:41 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

look at how fast this pressure is falling
Here


Where is that bouy?
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397. mermaidlaw
8:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Hello Cybr,
The rain missed us up here today. it is just hot, and sunny.
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396. Thundercloud01221991
3:41 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
With VERY STEEP waves
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
395. WPBHurricane05
4:40 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Jim Canatochee's Ernesto Update Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
394. ricderr
4:41 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Has disco era pics locked in safe in lower 9th Ward...
just wondering if patrap jr has the combo?.....jr..oh jr.........20 bucks for a pic buddy
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393. Melagoo
4:41 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif
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392. Patrap
8:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Prismview77Link
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391. Thundercloud01221991
3:40 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
look at how fast this pressure is falling
Here
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
387. Patrap
8:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..Has disco era pics locked in safe in lower 9th Ward...
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386. benirica
8:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
so we can say the cape verde season has shut off? or do we still have to watch these waves comming off of Africa.

**Not that it ever started..
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385. Hellsniper223
8:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I'm soooooo glad I'm not from that erra...
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384. ricderr
4:35 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
and you had to have the zip up the side platform boots......let you slide on the dance floor....cus she's a brick..da da da da house....she's mighty mighty....lettin it all hang out....i was a fan of disco
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383. Patrap
8:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Hellol cyberteddy
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382. Patrap
8:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Canary Yellow..Groovy
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381. CybrTeddy
8:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Hello all
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380. WPBHurricane05
4:35 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
wow 27!! LOL!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
378. hurricane23
4:35 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Melagoo convection in the western caribbean has been fairly persistant this afternoon.This blob is in a very dangerous area for the U.S.Given the right conditions we may have a problem in the next couple of days.Remember persistance is key.
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376. Patrap
8:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Grinning real wide!....You go ricc!
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375. Patrap
8:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..jeeuz! ..thats a dusty one..ack!..coff..LOL
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374. CybrTeddy
8:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
...Raining in PlanT City Florida..
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371. Patrap
8:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..invest 77Link
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370. benirica
8:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
patrap... lol about THE BLOB link
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369. Patrap
8:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Hurricane AlbertLinko
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368. ricderr
4:28 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
dang...that's me in the 70's 27......had hair just olike it..and the angel flights...silk shirts..but i he don't have the pukka shell necklace that you had to wear to be kool
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367. Melagoo
4:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Hurricane23

Do you think that will develop?

I was watching the loop in the Caribbean
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364. CybrTeddy
8:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Are they even metioning the wave in the carribein
could be an alberto senerio
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363. Patrap
8:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
This blob could developLink
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361. Tazmanian
1:18 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
her on this map you will see in the Caribbean a 1008mb low + there a 1013mb low this now coming off

her mor on it

The ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 11n16w 9n30w 8n40w 10n50w 10n60w.
Outside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is from
10n-14n east of 21w to inland in west Africa probably associated
with the next tropical. A 1013 mb low pres is near 15n16w.
The GFS model develops this low and moves mainly north over the
E Atlc. Scattered moderate convection is within 40-50 nm on
either side of the axis from 38w-44w.

lol


now her some in


...Discussion...
the Gulf of Mexico...
as of 1500 UTC...a frontal system extends from central Florida
to the Bay of Campeche. A 1012 mb surface low pres has formed
along the frontal boundary near 31n79w. The western portion of
the front...over the Bay of Campeche has become nearly
stationary.



sorry if thre map is a little big
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359. catastropheadjuster
8:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Thank You'll for helping me. I appreciate it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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