96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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457. WPBHurricane05
5:05 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
no 'west'casters with this one
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
455. Hellsniper223
9:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Here Is a question... Is that preasure drop normal for this time of day? The NHC seems to think so.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
454. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
9:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
very interesting situation with front in florida and pressures dropping near the blob in carribean
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 477
453. Patrap
9:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Because the time matches up with this...perfectlyLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128241
450. Tazmanian
1:58 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
we have to watch the Carribian for get 96L and start watching the Carribian that blob could be overe one of the smaller eddys in the Carribian that may seen why the mb is falling so fast right now

lol

as you can see there a lot of smaller eddys in the Carribian and it could be overe one of them right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115076
449. rwdobson
9:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Back to weather
we have a bad situation developing in the carribian a low with convection and with falling pressures


not according to the NHC. the most recent outlooks says "A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has developed
over the western Caribbean Sea. Surface pressure are not falling and further development is not expected."
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
448. MTJax
8:59 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Thunder,
They have all been here a long time. You have to exist in the environment you are in just like a hurricane does. Dont fight the locals... you will lose. Instead you can post the weather, some will discuss, and some will hang out with friends in the blog. If you get flared up and start developing internal convergence you will get a lot of bad votes in here. You can ask 27 what thats like because since the voting showed up, not a single post of hers has not been auto hidden. Lighten up. The same video people will be covering your butt if a real serious issue shows up and you will discover that they know a lot about the tropics. Peace...
447. WPBHurricane05
5:02 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
wow some way out there predictions

dont forget this blob is over land (low level circulation)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
446. Thundercloud01221991
4:03 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
42057
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
445. Melagoo
5:03 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Depression by Friday in the carrib/gom. Guys, We're DOOMMEEDD. Cat 5 Landfall in NW FL/Alabama border.

Wow! That is a quick forecast!
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444. Hellsniper223
9:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

See what happens when you start talking weather?
Now we're all Doomed!


Yup! Doomed! ;-)
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
443. crownwx
9:03 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
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441. mermaidlaw
9:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
What are the chances of the blob to become something?
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439. Patrap
9:02 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..corrected..thats the one your not supposed to see
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128241
438. ricderr
04:58 PM EDT am 26. September 2006
but does the blob have spin...


what blob goes up...must come down...spinning blob...gots to go round..talk about the weather it's a cryin shame....watch the spinning blob go round become a hurricane....
there you go thunder...music and weather realted....see..life is good...smile
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437. Patrap
9:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Storm Surge.Mississippi August 29th, 05Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128241
436. Thundercloud01221991
3:58 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: ricderr at 3:56 PM CDT on September 26, 2006.
STOP this is not a video blog or whatever nonsense you are talking about the area in which the blob in the Carribian is the pressures are falling very fast and the water is very warm if not downright hot I come to this blog to talk about weather not some stupid stuff go to another blog to do that!!!
that's right...so rather than ignoring and talking about weather..i'll still not talk about weather but complain about people not talking about weather..which will then generate another non weather related post or two....;-)


Knock it off

Back to weather
we have a bad situation developing in the carribian a low with convection and with falling pressures

Where will it go if it develops any guesses
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
432. mermaidlaw
8:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I am with you on that one STORMW! Older, and wiser! LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
430. Hellsniper223
8:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Depression by Friday in the carrib/gom. Guys, We're DOOMMEEDD. Cat 5 Landfall in NW FL/Alabama border.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
428. Thundercloud01221991
3:55 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
pressure has fallen approx. .2 in in the last hour that is a lot!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
427. Melagoo
4:56 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Your a real Fart Smeller .... I mean a Smart Feller .... :c)
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424. Patrap
8:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
SatchmoLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128241
423. WPBHurricane05
4:55 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
ok on topic post, there is a hurricane
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
422. ricderr
04:55 PM EDT am 26. September 2006
STOP this is not a video blog or whatever nonsense you are talking about the area in which the blob in the Carribian is the pressures are falling very fast and the water is very warm if not downright hot I come to this blog to talk about weather not some stupid stuff go to another blog to do that!!!
that's right...so rather than ignoring and talking about weather..i'll still not talk about weather but complain about people not talking about weather..which will then generate another non weather related post or two....;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
421. Melagoo
4:55 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
from Sept 23-06

temps 23
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420. Hellsniper223
8:53 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Wisdom is only good If you've got intelligence to back it. ^.^

How are you in that department? ;-)
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
419. ricderr
04:54 PM EDT am 26. September 2006
rand......but does it have spin?.......and is it moving west..remember..in the gulf...west is good....
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417. Thundercloud01221991
3:51 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
STOP this is not a video blog or whatever nonsense you are talking about the area in which the blob in the Carribian is the pressures are falling very fast and the water is very warm if not downright hot I come to this blog to talk about weather not some stupid stuff go to another blog to do that!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
416. WPBHurricane05
4:50 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i hate this new crap they have now a days
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
411. K8eCane
8:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Iiiii had to meet you here todayay
theres just so many things to say
please dont stop me
till i'm throuuuuu
i just think this is the thing to doooo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
410. Hellsniper223
8:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Wow... A bunch of old farts discussing the 60's/70's... lmao.

Thats Cool I guess.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
409. Melagoo
4:48 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
The water temp there is almost 90
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408. alaema
8:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
lyrics from the 70's were bad..............but try the 50's for real bad lyrics
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407. K8eCane
8:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
oh my
i canNOT believe its been 30 years
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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