96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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507. ricderr
9:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
ok.....i've got to headout....post some mail..grab some dinner...hopefully i'll see you fine people later...until then..let me leave you with this.....

beth i hear you calling...but i can't come home right now....
me and the boys are looking at the blobs
waitinf for the hurricane...
just a few more hours here at the WU and i'll be back home to you...
beth i hear you calling...beth what can i do...beth what can i do
this house seems so empty..that the house just aint a home....
i'm always here at the WU..and you're always watchin tv all alone
just a few more hours..and i'll be back there to you....
beth i hear you calling..oh beth waht can i do...beth what can i do
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21754
505. WPBHurricane05
9:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
what i do the last day of hurricane season Link

If im not wrong, aint 29.92 the standard pressure for normal?

yes that is normal sea pressure
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
504. Patrap
9:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
TD or Tstorm..We aint Skeered!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
502. Tazmanian
9:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Here's the 5:30 NHC take on the weather:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOW FALLING
AND has some potential for tropical cyclone formation

AND NOW BACK TO THE SHOW LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
501. Patrap
9:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
..OH my..I tink Ill go back and mind the slurpie machine..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
498. rwdobson
9:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"stabilitu in an otherwise instable blog"

that's me, mr. stabilitu...LOL.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
497. Patrap
9:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Non-sniper...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
496. MTJax
9:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
If im not wrong, aint 29.92 the standard pressure for normal?
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493. rwdobson
9:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
i think they may have set the default at show all...at first you had to change it every time you reloaded the page, very annoying.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
492. Hellsniper223
9:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Isent there a high over that blob?
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
491. Thundercloud01221991
4:17 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
I am signing off
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
489. rwdobson
9:14 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
thundercloud, during the last hour the pressure has not dropped AT ALL. not even 0.01 inch.

seriously, go back and look at the numbers. you'll see the pressure has been rising more than it has been falling. you'll see it's higher now than it was yesterday.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
487. Hellsniper223
9:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Well, I Think you can call me... HS223. ^_^
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
486. WPBHurricane05
5:14 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
IKES reconmondation;


Back to 70's music.

you heard the man lets go go go!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
485. ricderr
05:13 PM EDT am 26. September 2006
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

dang them all to heck........don't they know..that kind of talk..dispels panic.....we need havoc!!!!..havoc rasies gas prices....and some of us....are leveraged on a couple of issues that are gas price driven.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21754
484. Patrap
9:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Global warming warningLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
483. WPBHurricane05
5:12 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i see your post 27
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
480. Thundercloud01221991
4:11 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
It was dropping at .08 mb which is more then 2 mb per hour according to your statement
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
479. bibballen
4:12 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Here's the 5:30 NHC take on the weather:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

Back to fun.
477. Hellsniper223
9:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
I see your posts 27... I think My rating is bad too. ;_;
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
476. ricderr
05:10 PM EDT am 26. September 2006
Posted By: hurricane23 at 05:09 PM EDT am 26. September 2006.

I think if this blob in the western caribbean can persists the NHC may change there tune tommorow.


adrian..i must say...tune...and we're all singing....could there have been a bit of humor in that post?....what....will maybe you join us?.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21754
475. hurricane23
5:11 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
474. Patrap
9:10 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
THE map..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
472. Thundercloud01221991
4:07 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
the pressures normally fall each afternoon but not this fast
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
470. IKE
4:09 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
The Rain Song....Led Zeppelin.
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469. Patrap
9:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Breach..August 30th..note the debris in front the bridge..click to enlargeLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
468. Melagoo
5:06 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
Man it looks like bathtub water

GOM hot
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467. hurricane23
5:08 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
I think if this blob in the western caribbean can persists the NHC may change there tune tommorow.
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466. WPBHurricane05
5:08 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
im singing in the rain...just singing in the rain...
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
465. WPBHurricane05
5:07 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
wow some way out there predictions

dont forget this blob is over land (low level circulation)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
464. Hellsniper223
9:07 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Posted By: saddlegait at 9:07 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

Not too bad...storms are holdin off, of course, until the saddle's vacation weekend of Oct 6 at Ft. Walton


Hey! I live in Ft. Walton! =D
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
463. rwdobson
9:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
thundercloud, the pressure at the buoy was LOWER yesterday than it is today. and right now it's at 29.92, which is the generally-accepted mean sea level pressure for the world...this is not indicative of a tropical cyclone developing.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
462. MTJax
9:06 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
didnt post yet

Thundercloud01221991,
They have all been here a long time. You have to exist in the environment you are in just like a hurricane does. Dont fight the locals... you will lose. Instead you can post the weather, some will discuss, and some will hang out with friends in the blog. If you get flared up and start developing internal convergence you will get a lot of bad votes in here. You can ask 27 what thats like because since the voting showed up, not a single post of hers has not been auto hidden. Lighten up. The same video people will be covering your butt if a real serious issue shows up and you will discover that they know a lot about the tropics. Peace...
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461. ricderr
05:03 PM EDT am 26. September 2006
we have a bad situation developing in the carribian a low with convection and with falling pressures...
ok thunder..let's play...first of all....where's this big bad low?....how much spin does it have? and what's the shear?...what's the chances of development?...how long has it been there and will it survive the night?...then..we can freak out....le freak..cest chic...freak out!!!!!
2nd....regardless of how and what i post..how will i influence that blob in any way..oh yeah wait a minute mr POSTman...oh who oh who mr POSTman
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21754
459. IKE
4:05 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Per the 5:30 PM EDT Tropical Weather Update...."A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has developed
over the western Caribbean Sea. Surface pressure are not falling
and further development is not expected.".....

Pressures are NOT FALLING.

They were lower 24 hours ago.

Back to 70's music.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
457. WPBHurricane05
5:05 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
no 'west'casters with this one
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.