96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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1007. Skyepony (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Typhoon Xangsane


oop see littlefish posted the discussion on that wave infront of 96L.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38656
1006. Skyepony (Mod)
2:41 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 17N
DRIFTING WEST. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38656
1005. usviwalkingstick
2:08 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Any more comments on "the son of 96L"? Looks like some good rain for us if nothing else, although Puerto Rico NOAA didn't comment on it either this AM ...?
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1004. littlefish
2:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Xangsane doesn't worry about islands much, huh? Blowing up like that while crossing through the Phillipines. Guess it is the Pacific's turn for monster storms... Yikes.
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1003. littlefish
2:24 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Another LB? This from the Atlantic discussion:
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55w/56w south of 17n
drifting west. No deep convective precipitation accompanies
this tropical wave.

Looks to me like it has a fair amount of convection. Even looks like it may have a surface circ with it. It's pretty close to 96/97L so that may drag it north. But right now it is in position to affect the N Lesser Antilles if it continues westward... Anybody watching it?
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1002. Melagoo
10:09 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
You can see what very warm water does - It must be horrible there and it's night time.

Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1604
1001. Skyepony (Mod)
2:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
ricder~ arcive buoy data

There is some by storm stuff in there. Amazing stuff on Katrina.

Not the current blog for view from the surface but the one before has some great Katrina stuff at the bottom.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38656
1000. FloridaScuba
2:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
...at this rate it could make landfall in Lincoln, Nebraska.

now that's funny
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999. moonlightcowboy
1:57 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
What the hell is up with 96L? Back, gone, then 97, then gone, then back...wassup with that? This storm will be called Issac very soon, undoubtedly as they don't know what to do with it...still a fish, but who knows at this rate it could make landfall in Provo, Oklahoma...
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
998. jake436
1:59 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Apparently not! Time for a new blog anyway.
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997. jake436
1:57 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
I didn't break it, but I'll try to fix the italic blog.

Did it work?
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996. typhoonwatcher
1:51 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Typhoon Xangsane has exploded into a Category 4 typhoon even after making landfall.
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995. Tazmanian
6:49 AM PDT on September 27, 2006
Typhoon Xangsane wow the navy site this update to 125kts and 916mbs
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994. jake436
1:32 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
According to ESPN 2,(Mike $ Mike quoting the Fort Worth Newspaper), Terrell Owens attempted suicide.
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993. Accordionboy
9:17 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
What has happened to Typhoon Xangsane!!!!

RIGHT Next to land it has developed a CDO almost as good as Monica!!!!
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992. SWLAStormFanatic
1:13 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Yeah, it dewed. That dries out the air.



"Dude", thanks for the answer...gotta go to work.
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991. jake436
1:11 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 12:40 PM GMT on September 27, 2006.

Now the dewpoint is 55, last night at 10p it was 61.

Anybody see anything that would have caused the DP to drop?


Yeah, it dewed. That dries out the air.
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990. Eastcoast
1:06 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Winter forecast is out!

Winter Weather Outlooks Maps charts and Major Discussion on Nor`easters and NAO

Maps charts and discussions
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988. G35Wayne
12:47 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
The Carribean blob is gone... Nothing has been able to get going in the gulf or Carribean this year.
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986. IKE
7:44 AM CDT on September 27, 2006
All SL had to do was win 3 of their last 7 instead of losing all of them and they would be 4 1/2 games up and it would be over with, even with Houston winning 7 in a row.
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985. IKE
7:39 AM CDT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 7:38 AM CDT on September 27, 2006.

Ike, there wasn't a front or anything forecast to come in that would bring drier air.


How 'bout what's going on in the NL Cent?


Sometimes it'll do that where the dew point drops at night. Why...not sure...I'm not a met. I could understand it if a cold front came thru. It does that here in the Florida panhandle sometimes w/o a frontal passage.

1 1/2 games out...it's unbelievable. Cards had their game last night...up 5-2 w/Carpenter pitching and blew it. I watched both games on mlb.tv.

GO STROS!!!!!
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984. SWLAStormFanatic
12:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Now the dewpoint is 55, last night at 10p it was 61.

Anybody see anything that would have caused the DP to drop?
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983. SWLAStormFanatic
12:37 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Ike, there wasn't a front or anything forecast to come in that would bring drier air.


How 'bout what's going on in the NL Cent?
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982. IKE
7:34 AM CDT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 7:11 AM CDT on September 27, 2006.

Last night at 10pm the temp was 64, the dewpoint was 61. How is it possible that the low this morning was 57? I thought the temp couldn't go below the dewpoint?????????


U must to have had drier air move in overnight and the temp can not go below the dew point.
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981. tornadodude
12:25 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
hey everyone. wow, Xangzane really strengthened last night! oh well. gotta go to school. see yall later.
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980. ricderr
8:24 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
ok...i'm off to do some work for awhile..will check in to see if anything develops in the gulf today
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978. kmanislander
12:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
off to do the school run now
bb later
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977. SWLAStormFanatic
12:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Yeh ric...it caused my wife and me to have to move to La lol
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976. ricderr
8:18 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
thanx kman...that's why it takes teamwork....nothing sneaking here....know you and others have my back....leaves me time to speculate
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975. SWLAStormFanatic
12:17 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Rand, no fog...just the regular dew. I guess it must have "did" heavilly last night. (Or would that be "have done"?)
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974. ricderr
8:17 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
no wonder why you forgot the "f" in your name....
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973. kmanislander
12:16 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
hey ric
the tail end of a front should always be watched from now through the end of Nov but sometimes you need to look in more than one direction or something may sneak up on you

LOL
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972. SWLAStormFanatic
12:16 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
ric...SWLA is for Southwest Louisiana. Lake Charles.
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971. ricderr
8:15 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
hmmmm....swfl..how far south in florida do you live?
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969. ricderr
8:11 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
thanx kman...you keep watching that blob...i've got all eyes fixed in the gulf today......can't figure what it is right now..but something just doesn't look right
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967. SWLAStormFanatic
12:09 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
Last night at 10pm the temp was 64, the dewpoint was 61. How is it possible that the low this morning was 57? I thought the temp couldn't go below the dewpoint?????????
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965. kmanislander
12:09 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
welcome back Nash
not much happened while you were gone. Mostly blob watching
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964. kmanislander
12:07 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
good morning all

the wave at 16 N 56 W is showing signs of a developing circulation. As it is steadily pulling away from the influence of 96L it needs to be watched
The close up vis from the GHCC site shows this very clearly
Link
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963. ricderr
8:07 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
anyone have a link to archived gulf buoy readings?.....i'd like to do some comparisons
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962. nash28
12:05 PM GMT on September 27, 2006
I guess it's that time of year for the stalled cold fronts spinning something up in the Gulf.
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961. GoofOff
7:53 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
Nash, except for the usual flare ups in here, has been very quiet out in the real world. The latest project is to give names to convection.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
960. ricderr
7:52 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
nash...welocme back...nothing..been quiet..but....you need to focus on the gulf man...it's perculating..
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959. nash28
11:49 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Good morning everyone. Back from vacation. What have I missed over the last several days?
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958. ricderr
7:40 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
taz...what's your view from the gulf today?
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957. Tazmanian
4:38 AM PDT on September 27, 2006
96L is gone from the navy site whats see if they put it back up with TD 9? or put it back up 96L and 97L back to sleep
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.