Disturbance 96L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on September 24, 2006

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A tropical wave (dubbed "96L" by NHC) is in the mid-Atlantic, 1200 miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm has developed a well-defined circular rotation visible on visible satellite animations, and is close to tropical depression status. QuikSCAT winds from this morning's 4:45am EDT pass were 25-35 mph in a few isolated patches. About 20 knots of winds shear from the west is keeping the heavy thunderstorm activity of 96L confined to the east side of its circulation. If this shear relaxes for 12 or so hours, the storm has a chance at organizing into a tropical depression.

The computer models indicate that wind shear may drop enough to allow 96L to organize into a weak tropical storm, but none of the models are forecasting a hurricane. The storm is currently drifting slowly to the northwest. As the remains of Hurricane Helene race off to the northeast over the next few days, the Bermuda High will re-establish itself and a high pressure ridge will build in, forcing 96L to the west-northwest. The system could threaten Bermuda around Friday. However, I think it is likely that a trough of low pressure will recurve 96L northwards and out to sea before it reaches Bermuda.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Hurricane Helene has completed its transition to an extratropical storm, and its remnants may bring high winds and heavy rain to Ireland on Wednesday. A few of the computer models are forecasting that a new tropical storm will develop between Africa and the Lesser Antilles later this week. Any development in this region would likely recurve northwards out to sea.

I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters

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907. Patrap
2:21 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
try again,Hurricane CockroachLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
906. Wishcasterboy
1:32 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Morning yall, 3 1/2 hours of sleep and know milk for your cerial pluse a dead soon to be 97l equals a bad morning for whishy!
905. neutrino006
1:29 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Link
I see the 96L begining to move to WNW... or is something else, not 96L?
904. GoofOff
1:24 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Hi and bye. Be back later or maybe not until Tuesday. Nothing going on out in the water right now and I don't feel like getting into discussions over things of no importance to anyone other than the person complaining. Have a nice day.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
903. Skyepony (Mod)
1:21 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Hhhmmm, the ugly trough looks like it might just may still throw that mess to the E. Pac afterall.

The probibilities for cyclone formation has dropped slightly across the Atlantic overnight. Kind of not suprising after the dip in the electron graph lastnight, I was looking for some help with...lol. Panama & the Nogaps look interesting.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39432
902. thelmores
1:21 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
this blog must have an @$$h0L3 magnet.....

morning everybody.... looks like 96L is "naked" this morning.....

hope everybody has a good week! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
901. Wishcasterboy
1:11 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
I Thing Randrewl is upset with me, I shoud apologize to him.
900. weatherguy03
12:54 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Oh boy.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
897. weatherguy03
12:34 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
I should of rephrased that, the same two people. Thanks.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
895. obsessedwweather
12:23 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
There's gotta be a 97L invest soon. I'm surprised there isn't already.

Also, Caribbean looks interesting.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
894. sebastianjer
12:21 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Morning all-quick check before off to work doesn't look like anything imminent. Is that convection blow up down by Panama anything? Or just Chavez blowing off steam, lol

JER
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
893. hurricane23
12:19 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Good morning,

Big flare-up in the SW caribbean this morning also Nogaps hinting on development....Be back in a couple of hours. Adrian

Click here for 00z Nogaps
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
892. SWLAStormFanatic
12:16 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
SJ, I don't think 96 is doing so well.
891. weatherguy03
12:16 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Well, it looks like the same trouble maker has continued to ruin Dr. Masters blog this season. Too bad they lifted the ban. Maybe next season things will get back to normal. We can only hope. I enjoyed it here last season.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
890. StormJunkie
12:14 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
Morning y'all. Been a busy weekend for me as I get closer and closer to moving. So what is the latest on 96?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
889. sandcrab39565
12:12 PM GMT on September 25, 2006
LOL yes it does
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
887. SWLAStormFanatic
11:59 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
G'morning Crab...looks like it got kinda interesting last night after we left.
886. sandcrab39565
11:49 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
Good Morning SWLA
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
885. SWLAStormFanatic
11:46 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
Last night's GOM blob is gone but it seems to have been replaced with a SCar blob.
883. dewfree
11:15 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
ohh in case you noticed i didnt g=figure in the west coast so there you have it lol bye
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
882. dewfree
11:12 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
Quite simply as far as the US mainland goes there isnt or hasn't been a tropical this year except Ernesto and that seems to sum it up does'nt it . Anyway next week has better possiblities have agood one im gone now
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
881. dewfree
10:59 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
the likely hood of recurve is high no matter what comes and rom where it comes .sometime next week will be an opportunity for a close call of somekind along the east coast simply based on nothing else but the pattern at that time . I havent looked and don't intend to look at any tropical system till then . hope all goes well with you all this week and try not to be so hard on each other lol
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
880. dewfree
10:55 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
It does'nt matter what is going on in hee there is always bickering .yes their is alot of reiterating in here and yes some do claim it like it was their own but who cares if you know better then let it be .They only make themselves to look as they do and if that is what they want so be it ! lol There is only a couple of commercial people in the whole world that really make forecast based not just on models but experiance .AS far as those who aren't commercial well i believe they can afford to look stupid can't they !! REmember this if you don't stick your neck out and try then you want never get it right .If some one repeats you and uses your info then it only makes you look better !lol have a good day !!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
879. WPBHurricane05
10:14 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
good example of were 97L started off:

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
878. WPBHurricane05
10:13 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
bad example of were 97L started off:

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
876. WPBHurricane05
9:40 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
we wernt wishcasting 97L, theres a wave in the central atlantic, boy you better learn your weather
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
866. StoryOfTheCane
7:31 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
ST is just a sad sad little man with terrible people skills
865. StoryOfTheCane
7:30 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
I invented the light bulb.Story
864. The32ndDegree
7:29 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
Well, 23 might do the signature to claim others' thoughts as his own, but not ST!! Dear StormTop comes up with crazy BS that nobody else possibly could!!

LOL

32*
859. StoryOfTheCane
7:24 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
i think i got em figured out
857. moonlightcowboy
7:20 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
...something kind of "Juvenile" about that I think...lol
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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