New disturbance slowly organizing, but no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2006

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A tropical wave featuring a broad surface circulation about 1100 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has become better organized since yesterday. There is more heavy thunderstorm activity, and the cloud pattern is a bit more circular. QuikSCAT winds from this morning's 5:11am EDT pass were 25-35 mph in a few isolated patches. This system (96L) probably needs at least another two days to organize into a tropical depression as it moves northwest over the open Atlantic. The storm is moving towards a weakness in the Bermuda High created by Hurricane Helene. Most of the forecast models indicate that this break will close up as Helene races off to the northeast over the next few days. The Bermuda High will then re-establish itself and a high pressure ridge will build in, forcing 96L more to the west-northwest. A long range threat to Bermuda is possible late next week. I think it is likely that a trough of low pressure will recurve 96L northwards and out to sea before it reaches Bermuda, though. The storm is not a threat to the Caribbean or U.S. Two models--the GFDL and Canadian--forecast that 96L will eventually become a hurricane. The storm is over warm waters, and under just 10 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Hurricane Helene headed out to sea
Hurricane Helene is headed northeast out to sea. Helene is expected gradually weaken and morph into a powerful extratropical storm with hurricane force winds later today. Swells from Helene and high winds are combining to produce seas up to 12 feet high off of Cape Cod today.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters

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813. zipper42
5:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Looks like I'm alone, good bye for now
812. zipper42
5:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Justcoasting sorry the one for 96l is not yet up on Tropical Page set for future enhacement. Have to wait for it to become a depression
811. Patrap
4:39 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
..LinkIronic,but true
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
810. Patrap
4:26 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
LinkDopplerHook echo.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
809. WPBHurricane05
4:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
808. Patrap
4:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
.Thanks..come tommorw night..enjoy the Show..and Game..its going to be a Great Evening..and a much needed shot of Excitement
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
807. Tazmanian
4:15 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
ok now where 97L and why the navy site have not call it yet this sould be 97L and it looks like a TD 9 to me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
806. WPBHurricane05
4:15 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
new blog
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
805. JUSTCOASTING
4:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Can anyone give me a link to get the forecast models i see them posted all the time but not sure where to find them .
Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666
804. Patrap
4:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
LinkElena1985
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
803. ajpgraves1990
4:13 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Thank you Patrap. I can't imagine what all the living victims are dreaming about. Those images are sure to haunt you all. I am sorry for all who perished in the storm.
802. Tazmanian
4:13 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Ron5244 well this to yet you no i have now call this wave 97L seen like the navy site not going to do it am call it 97L my safe
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
801. WPBHurricane05
4:12 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
ya i think P97L (potential) needs to be watched

oops, 3 time today we had a power surge, i think it was me, although i wasnt on the PC last night around midnight when we had one, they must of switched us to Lake Worth Power, great!! :(
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
800. Tazmanian
4:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Hatchet thanks i got it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
799. Ron5244
4:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2006.

boy that wave needs to be watch i think the navy site is down they have not yet call the wave 97L and it all most look like a TD 2 me dont you all think


You better believe that looks like a TD. A strong one at that!
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
798. Tazmanian
4:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
boy that wave needs to be watch i think the navy site is down they have not yet call the wave 97L and it all most look like a TD 2 me dont you all think
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
797. Hatchet
4:08 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Taz you got mail
796. PensacolaDoug
4:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Go Dolphins!










And take the Marlins with you.....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
795. sebastianjer
4:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Patrap-
Thanks-I guess, powerful
JER
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
794. WPBHurricane05
4:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Dr. lied:


I'll have an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters


its Sunday afternoon

just kiding dr
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
793. GoofOff
4:05 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Getting close to FOOTBALL time. Catch you all later. I have to go put some RediWhip in a bowl and see if I can locate the eye. Enjoy!!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
792. PensacolaDoug
4:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
The front into the gulf is an unlikely developement. That being said however, it has happened before and this is the time of year when it is possible. The GOM is warm almost to the point of scary. If it does happen it will take several days of transition so there is nothing imminent. Also the upper air pattern would have to calm down and stay that way for days. Just doesn't seem likely considering the strength of the troughs that have been pushing thru. I'd guess odds are 1 in 20, if that.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
791. miracleaa1990
4:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
regarding 96L; it's basically stationary at roughly 19N/43W - - it has rotation and the clouds are getting blown away - if it remains stationary and keeps producing convection, the highs will probably be formed in, and it's anybody's guess from there
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 284
790. Ron5244
4:02 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
It is starting in the same position as many storms....Ivan being one of them.

If it were to take a path similar to Ivan, I think it would be a little further north.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
789. Patrap
4:00 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
..have resent..try again ajp
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
788. Tazmanian
3:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
i think so to i think the navy site may be down or some in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
787. Patrap
3:58 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
.Okay..no problem
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
786. Ron5244
3:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Certainly looks like a TD to me.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
785. WPBHurricane05
3:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
if it looks this good or better still monday morning, i think this should be TD 9
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
784. WPBHurricane05
3:56 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
that wave should be 97L IMHO
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
783. Tazmanian
3:56 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
i hop the next navy site update calls that wave 97L it all most look like a TD to be then 97L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
782. ajpgraves1990
3:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
I did. Can you try again> Please. Sorry pain in the butt
781. Tazmanian
3:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
ryang yes i think so to


well it seen like the navy site has not yet call that wave 97L but i have now call it 97L and 97L need to be watch and i give up on 96L seen like it not going to be march at all
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
780. Patrap
3:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
..ajpgraves..check your real e-mail..not in the WU
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
779. Ron5244
3:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
That wave looks impressive. Thats the one to watch..hands down.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
778. WPBHurricane05
3:52 PM GMT on September 24, 2006


we need to watch that wave thats near 10N/25W
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
777. miracleaa1990
3:51 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
65 minutes ! GO VIKES!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 284
776. ryang
3:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
that wave his some heavy thunderstorms and the clouds are rotating could be trouble early next week, think so taz
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12429
775. ajpgraves1990
3:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Patrap, don't forget about me!!! Please.
774. WPBHurricane05
3:49 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
wow look at the big blob in South Texas associated with the front, if it breaks apart will this become a TS? i would think so, but it doesnt have a LLC, so nevermind
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
773. WPBHurricane05
3:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
i see Helene is headed for the UK
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
772. Tazmanian
3:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Hatchet ok come to my blog ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
771. Melagoo
3:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
atlantic surface analysis
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1561
770. The32ndDegree
3:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Patrap -

You have mail.

32*
769. Hatchet
3:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
Great 60 degrees and no rain yet,might jump on the ride for awhile.Taz remember you have a right to your opinion and you always can say what you think,don't let anyone tell you different ,OK
768. ryang
3:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
dr.masters is taking long with his blog
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12429
767. WPBHurricane05
3:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
marlinsfan1,

thats a 'cool' front, if you live in S. Florida, its headed our way, some severe weather is coming!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
766. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
..sees that big HUGE..5 center HigH ..of 1024mb..behind the front...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
765. Tazmanian
3:42 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
WPBHurricane05 yes i think so too
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
764. Patrap
3:42 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
BrandonC ..the package has been delivered..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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