Gordon is trouble no more; Helene and 96L still out there

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2006

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The winds and rain of former Hurricane Gordon have subsided over Ireland today, and golf's famed Ryder Cup is proceeding without weather disruptions. High winds due to the remnants of Gordon injured three people at the Ryder Cup's K Club golf course yesterday, where the final practice round was being held. A tree on the main avenue of The K Club was blown over, injuring a woman, and two men were injured when a temporary wall blew down at a bus terminal that ferried fans to distant parking lots. Radar imagery from the Irish Meteorological Service shows just a few scattered showers lingering over Ireland today. The counterclockwise circulation around the remains of Gordon helped pump hot air from Spain northward into the eastern British Islands. A record high temperature for September 21 was set with 28.4C (83.1F) in Bedford yesterday.


Figure 1. Hurricane Gordon on its way toward Ireland to play havoc with practice rounds of golf's famed Ryder Cup. Photo taken at 18:15 GMT, Sept. 17, 2006, from the Space Shuttle Atlantis. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon lashes Spain and Portugal
The remains of Gordon brought hurricane force wind gusts and heavy rain to Spain and Portugal yesterday. In the Spanish province of Galicia, four people were injured and one hundred thousand homes lost power. In Portugal, local media described chaotic scenes due to flooding from heavy rain and winds that damaged roofs and uprooted trees. Traffic was severely affected. Meteored, a Spanish weather forum, reported some impressive winds gusts:

Castro Vicaludo-Oia (Pontevedra): 168 km/h (104 mph)
Fisterra (A. Coruña): 165 km/h (103 mph) (INM)
Cabo Vilán (A. Corurña): 152 km/h (94 mph) (INM)
Ferrol (A. Coruña): 119 km/h (74 mph) (INM)
Alvedro (A. Coruña): 111km/h (69 mph)
Ancares (Lugo): 101 km/h (63 mph)
Oiz (Bizkaia): 109 km/h (68 mph)

INM is the Spanish government's weather service. I thank Luiz Fernando Nachtigall, Chief Meteorologist for Brazil's MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center, for providing this information. His site's weather blog has an impressive Youtube video of the damage in Spain.

Invest 96L
Shower activity has increased today in association with a tropical wave featuring a broad surface circulation near 13N 39W, about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave was designated as "Invest 96L" by the Hurricane Center Wednesday. The storm is under 10 knots of vertical wind shear and is over warm ocean waters of about 28C, and some slow development is possible over the next few days as it moves northwest over the open Atlantic. Both the GFS and GFDL predict that 96L will follow a break left by Hurricane Helene in the Bermuda High and recurve harmlessly out to sea early next week. The other models think that the break in the Bermuda High will close up and a high pressure ridge will build in, forcing 96L more to the west-northwest. In this latter scenario, a long range threat to Bermuda is possible, or perhaps even the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the computer models intensify 96L into a hurricane, though.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Naming scheme for "Invest" storms
The tropical wave naming scheme goes like this: If the National Hurricane Center deems a tropical disturbance worthy of running their forecast track models on, the disturbance is given a number 90-99. A letter is affixed to the end denoting the ocean basin--"L" for the Atlantic or "E" for the Eastern Pacific. "A" is not used for the Atlantic, since that letter is reserved for cyclones in the Arabian Sea. The Navy uses the same naming scheme on their web site with zoomed-in satellite imagery of all the official "Invest" disturbances and all the regular named tropical cyclones:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click on "96L.INVEST" at upper left to see a full suite of conventional and microwave satellite imagery of the 96L invest area.

When NHC issues track forecasts for an "Invest", wunderground.com plots up the forecasts, and I make them available on my blog. These plots will always be labeled "Tropical Disturbance Invest". We need to fix the labels on these plots to say "96L" and make them available on the main tropical web page along with the latest satellite image of the disturbance. These improvements are on our to-do list.

Hurricane Helene headed out to sea
Hurricane Helene is headed northeast out to sea. Helene is expected to gradually weaken and morph into a powerful extratropical storm with hurricane force winds over the next few days, and pass between Iceland and the British Islands early next week. Helene's winds have blown long enough and strong enough over a vast area of ocean to cause large swells up to six feet high that have arrived along the East Coast of the U.S., prompting the issuance of rip current advisories from Florida to Cape Cod. Bermuda is also seeing some impressive waves along its shores.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters

Remnants of Gordan. (Anton7)
Yesterday the remnants of Gordan passed the SW tip of England, The photographs dont capture the incredible noise created by the wind, gusting at 70-80mph. The combination of westerly swell, Southerly gale, combined with tidal currents moving south, produced some crazy conditions.
Remnants of Gordan.

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1155. WARNING
5:03 AM GMT on September 25, 2006
O helene you were once hott but now ugly
you have aged so much so now farwell!

ooo i got some poetry skills!!!!!
1154. fldude99
1:24 PM GMT on September 24, 2006
im a little concerned what can happen in the GOM after this front passes..not whats (not) happening in the atlantic
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
1153. hurricane23
5:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Good afternoon,

Things might be getting really interesting next week!

Take a look at the 12z GFS once again continues to bring a system towards the islands.

CLICK HERE FOR GFS @ 144HRS
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
1152. Patrap
4:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
..all US DoD interest have access to the same tools..,as the NHC..they support each other..not unlike the NAVY helps Support The Joint Typhoon Warning Center..in the Pacific..the NHC just have a wider audience.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1151. bibballen
3:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
It has always seemed to me that the Navy metorologists have taken the lead from the NHC. Today they designate 96L as TCFA. I figured they were getting some sort of heads up info from the NHC. That lead me to suspect the NHC would be beefing up it's potential development scenario at the 11:30 am advisory - ie TD possible, etc.... yet NHC continues to say:

'THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS"

Explanations / comments about the relationship between the Navy and the NHC forecasts?

/BA
1150. PBG00
3:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
new blog up for the Doc
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1149. Tazmanian
3:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
: MichaelSTL thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1148. moonlightcowboy
3:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Agreed, Cyclone...the loop can be extremely explosive and dangerous...a weak storm there can suddenly erupt into catastrophy.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1147. Tazmanian
3:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ryang nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1146. WPBHurricane05
3:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
what does the new GFS show, i will check it in a second
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1143. ryang
3:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
taz do you know where is weather456 i did not see him for 5 days now
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12413
1142. WPBHurricane05
3:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
96L is really starting to organize
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1141. Tazmanian
3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ok then it seen like that one wave to the N of 96L is moveing a way may be thats why 96L is moveing more W to WSW
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1140. floridafisherman
3:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ptrap i didnt see your earlier post i was commenting on that one post u made and it did seem like u forgot that not even a year ago s florida was hit by a major hurricane at the end of october. and historical data means little as each storm has its own circumstances and weather patterns effecting it. and tropical threats can exist in almost any month down here although most action is from june-nov
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 550
1139. moonlightcowboy
3:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Cyclone, you must be new at this. Sure, the "trend" especially this year has been out to sea. If you follow these things for years, you'll see that there really only has to be "one" that does something weird, strange...and it does happen. To dismiss other possibilites is remiss. They all bare watching and indifferently to what's considered the "norm." If all were that predictable, we wouldn't need the "chunks" of money spent on forecasting.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1137. Skyepony (Mod)
3:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
96L is all one wave...it's still a wave, that's why it's blobby. It's yet to consolidate into a storm...

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37189
1136. Patrap
3:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
..Does not forget his friends along the GOM..never has..never will...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1134. Tazmanian
3:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
: ryang yes there is and i think that one will soon be come 97L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1133. Tazmanian
3:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ok one wave is moveing N and out to sea the 2nd wave you see is moveing more W to WSW
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1132. Patrap
3:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
..see my GMT 1:55post..or the gmt 2:21 post for clarification...if you must...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1131. Tazmanian
3:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
: moonlightcowboy i think that 2nd wave there is the one to watch and the wave that is 96L is moveing N and out to sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1130. ryang
3:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
taz there is another strong wave that will come off afica tomorrow
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12413
1129. Patrap
3:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
floridafisherman needs to read the posts a lil better..see my posts earlier..The posts says we Historically ..dont get major Strikes after the Middle of October..but the threat still exists..ie:Juan a cat-1 .with a 971 mb .lowest reaing Nov 1..85..relax..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1128. CybrTeddy
3:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Taz i think the wave on the top is 96L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
1126. Skyepony (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Ramsdis has the close up loop of 96L.. It's strengthend to much to go west. Only the lowest & weakest of waves could have rode that lower current west. It's developed to much, the mid to lower winds are headed NNW.

I'd like to go to the Isle of Skye. Actually it's the name of my stud pony, He's 1/2 irish & his dam's name is Star. Wanted to keep the celestral names going that had been given to her other offspring. There's pics of him deep in the photos in my blog. He's quite the looker & available for servous this coming spring... Speaking of my blog, I got local graphic happy...The EC FL locals let me know what ya think.

I'm off to play
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37189
1125. moonlightcowboy
3:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Taz, I agree with your assessment...and it seems like we had a similar setup a few storms ago and I think it was Florence. If conditions prevail, the SW blob may find it's way...but, then I'm like you...what the heck do I know....I mean there are just so many professional prognosticating casters in here that I'd be a dummy to speculate...lol.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1124. Tazmanian
3:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ok do you see 2 wave on that map yes or no??

now her is my thinking the 1 wave you see i moveing more W to WSW and i htink that is 96L now the 2 wave you see is a littl more N and it and it keeps going more N and out to sea

and i ask you what wave you think is 96L???

one wave is moveing N the 2nd wave is moveing more W to WSW at this time

but what do i no lol
lol


comets any one?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1123. floridafisherman
3:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
haileys comet?
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 550
1122. Tazmanian
3:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ok do you see 2 wave on that map yes or no??

now her is my thinking the 1 wave you see i moveing more W to WSW and i htink that is 96L now the 2 wave you see is a littl more N and it and it keeps going more N and out to sea

and i ask you what wave you think is 96L???

one wave is moveing N the 2nd wave is moveing more W to WSW at this time

but what do i no lol
lol


comets any one?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1121. groundman
3:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Posted By: ricderr at 3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2006.
good morning...nothing like the blended smell of stupidity...sarcasm and wit to start your day

My sentiments exactly.
Terry
1120. GoofOff
3:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
There has been 2 other impressive systems reach the coast after 96L. You can't find them now because they both went poof shortly after they hit water. I don't know how long this will continue, but right now their batting average is zero.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
1119. Tazmanian
3:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ok do you see 2 wave on that map yes or no??

now her is my thinking the 1 wave you see i moveing more W to WSW and i htink that is 96L now the 2 wave you see is a littl more N and it and it keeps going more N and out to sea

and i ask you what wave you think is 96L???

one wave is moveing N the 2nd wave is moveing more W to WSW at this time

but what do i no lol
lol


comets any one?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1118. floridafisherman
3:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
ptrap earlier u stated that major hurricanes never, er hardly ever effect the GOM after oct 11th or whatever. how quickly are we to forget that WILMA struck end of october just LAST year as a weak cat 3 hurricane!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 550
1117. hurricane23
3:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
The 06 GFS has a weak system of the florida coast...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
1116. sandcrab39565
3:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
27 mail
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
1115. ProgressivePulse
3:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Unfortunate for the Islands that is! Not that it is going out to sea in that run.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5020
1114. ProgressivePulse
3:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
That is the same system the GFDL is picking up on now as stated by H23. Looks like it will be another sea dweller after making the islands unfortunatly. Way too far out to tell though!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5020
1113. ricderr
3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
good morning...nothing like the blended smell of stupidity...sarcasm and wit to start your day
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21322
1111. hurricane23
2:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Folks NO THREAT from 96L...The wave behind it is the one to watch in my opinion.Here is the 06GFDL picking up on it.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
1110. refill
2:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
The 12UTC GFS again show a Tropical system passing directly over Puerto Rico sometime between October 4 and 5. The 6UTC run was showing the same system going north out to sea but now they show it directly over PR. Any comments??Link
1109. sandcrab39565
2:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Now 27 thats a mouth full.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
1108. IKE
2:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 9:54 AM CDT on September 23, 2006. (hide)
IKE at 2:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2006.

Sorry cyclone...the FBI has never analyzed me. I prefer to not have them involved in my life.

There's nothing in the gulf.....a ULL north of Yucatan...a few thundershowers getting drawn north by the low in the central US...but no tropical system is going to form.

I think you're just looking for a response cyclone.

Maybe the FBI SHOULD continue to keep an eye, maybe 2, on U.

Some of those 500+ questions they ask are very weird. I was afraid to answer some of them.


You should be!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1107. Patrap
2:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
..old Irish verse.."its better to keep thy mouth shut..and be thought a FOOL..than to open it..and remove all DOUBT"....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1106. ihave27windows
2:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2006
I don't live in N.O.

And you need to change your name to;
IllsayanythingtogetariseoutofpeoplebecauseIhavenolifeandthisistheonlyformofentertainmentavailable2a loserlikeme
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.