Gordon's remains trouble Ireland; Helene generating big waves; 96L no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006

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A strong tropical wave with a well-defined surface circulation is near 12N 34W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave was officially designated as "Invest 96L" by the Hurricane Center yesterday. The storm is under about 10 knots of vertical wind shear and is over warm ocean waters of about 28C, so some slow development is possible over the next few days as it moves northwest over the open Atlantic. Shower activity has decreased with the system this morning, though, and the models are less enthusiastic about developing it than they were yesterday. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows winds of just 15-20 mph surrounding the low. The long range GFS model predicts that this system will turn north and recurve out to sea in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. It is pretty unlikely 96L will ever be a threat to any land areas. The next wave that emerges off the coast of Africa this weekend has a better chance of making it across the Atlantic to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands, though, according to the latest runs of the GFS model.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Hurricane Helene headed out to sea
Hurricane Helene has begun her expected turn towards the north, and is on track to recurve harmlessly out to sea. Helene has weakened more, thanks to wind shear from a trough to her west. However, Helene's winds have blown long enough and strong enough over a vast area of ocean to cause large swells that have arrived along the East Coast of the U.S., prompting the issuance of rip current advisories from Florida to Maryland. Bermuda is also seeing some impressive huge waves today along its shores. The animation of the wave forecast from the Global Wave Model shows that these waves should die down beginning Sunday.

Gordon is gone, but don't tell the golfers that!
Hurricane Gordon degenerated to potent extratropical low yesterday, bringing heavy rain and high winds to Spain. The remnants of Gordon are headed to Ireland today, where the storm's wind and rains will play havoc with practice rounds for golf's famed Ryder Cup tournament. The tournament begins Friday. Radar imagery from the Irish Meteorological Service shows plenty of heavy rain over the island, and storm warnings for sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph have been issued for the waters off the west coast of Ireland. However, the tournament is being played in Straffan on the eastern end of the island, where the weather should be considerably better. Winds at Dublin Airport near Straffan were 26 mph at 9:30am local time this morning. The golf course where the tournament is to be played was closed this morning, due to wind gusts of 40 mph. Several trees were blown down on the course by the winds.


Figure 2. Hurricane Gordon as a Category 1 hurricane at 18:15 GMT, Sept. 17, 2006, as seen from the Space Shuttle Atlantis. Image credit: NASA.

Second warmest summer on record for the U.S.
Temperatures in August in the U.S. cooled down a bit compared to July, but were still well above average. According to the National Climatic Data Center, August 2006 ranked as the 11th warmest August on record. The record warmest August was 1983. The summer of 2006 (June, July, and August) ranks as the second warmest summer ever recorded. Only the summer of 1936 was hotter, by just 0.2°F. The summer heat wave this year killed more than 200 people, 160 of them in California. For the period January through August, 2006 beats out 1934 as the warmest year on record in the U.S. by a huge margin, nearly 3°F. With weak El Nino conditions expected to keep temperatures warmer than average across the northern 2/3 of the country this winter, it appears likely that 2006 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S.

Nationally, precipitation was above-normal for August, ranking as the 17th wettest August in the 112-year record (1895-2006). This year's January-August precipitation ranks it as the 26th driest period in the 112-year record.

Third warmest summer on record globally
June-August marked the third warmest summer globally, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The summer of 1998 was the warmest on record, 0.64°C (1.15°F) warmer than 2006. For the year to date, January-August, 2006 ranks as the 6th warmest such period globally.

Arctic sea ice recovers a bit
June and July saw the record lowest amount of Arctic sea ice ever recorded for those months, due to unusually warm conditions near the North Pole. However, temperatures near the pole were 1° to 2°C cooler than average in August, which slowed down the melting rate. Arctic sea ice extent for August was slightly higher than the record low August coverage measured in 2005.

Tonight: the Barometer Bob Show
I'll be a guest once more tonight on the Barometer Bob Show. Bob will be interviewing me about my flight into Hurricane Hugo with the Hurricane Hunters 17 years ago. I'm lucky to be alive to tell the story!

Jeff Masters

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1025. bibballen
3:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2006
Hi Jake

If the 50 prior years tell us something to consider you are absolutely correct. The sooner 96L develops the less chance it will have of making it accross to the Antilles islands.

At this time of year history tells us that low profile tropial waves may make it accross and later develop in the Caribbean. TDs / TSs / hurricaes that develop well east of the Caribbean seem to always recurve to the north and east.

/BA
1024. Zaphod
2:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Lot of rain and some T-storms came through Tulsa yesterday. We had tornado watches, but I think any action came to the East.

I suspect that the Miss valley will get some interesting weather today.

All in all, this was a "slow season" for severe weather in Oklahoma, with little in the late spring. Tornado alley hasn't lived up to its name since a few years back with the megasystems that hit OKC.

I find it interesting that large-scale patterns seem to shift, with the tornado-centric area shifting from E Colorado to over past Missouri or Ohio, and sometimes N to Nebraska or S to Alabama, over the years. Is there any coupling between such drifts and the hurrican potential for the seasons as well?

Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
1023. Dodabear
2:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Jake
You came up in "Average"
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
1022. Dodabear
2:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Doesn't look good for the center section today.
Link
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
1021. jake436
2:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
What about me?
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1020. neutrino006
2:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
check out the airmass movement:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=1,sa=8,pr=RGB,f=1,c=AIR,se=0,n=6,d=1,v=4 00,pp=0,t=200609220900#controls
1019. jake436
2:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Posted By: Melagoo at 2:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2006.

Yeah LOL it seems to be working very well ...

Question - What catagory does my name show up in?


Shows up in BAD. What have you done, Melagoo?
I will plus you a couple of times and try to rectify this.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1018. i12BNEi
2:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Morning everyone.Sure is quiet...kind of weird!Does anyone think the blob over Cuba can be anything? GOM temps 86 here in Tampa area.
1017. Melagoo
2:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Yeah LOL it seems to be working very well ...

Question - What catagory does my name show up in?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1577
1016. jake436
1:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Posted By: Melagoo at 1:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2006.

I am more interested in how Tokyo will avert a head on collision with Typhoon Yagi


Maybe they could borrow Bermudas famous hurricane shield.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1015. jake436
1:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Yeah, that's some good 50,000 ft tops in Arkansas and Tennessee. Hail and rotation, not good for them.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1014. Melagoo
1:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
I am more interested in how Tokyo will avert a head on collision with Typhoon Yagi
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1577
1013. jake436
1:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Where'd everybody go? Oh, the hurricane authority is giving it's detailed 40 second report.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1012. Melagoo
1:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
inland more interesting

usa
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1577
1011. jake436
1:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Posted By: PascMississippi at 1:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2006.

Good Morning All


Mornin'. How's the coast this morning?
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1010. PascMississippi
1:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Good Morning All
1009. obsessedwweather
1:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Story-

I think 96 L looks better organized? What ya think? Anyone, anyone???

Haven't been able to stay here for too long lately, so I amot current with the tropical activity right now. Thanks.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
1008. Melagoo
1:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Good Morning .... :c)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1577
1007. FloridaScuba
1:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Morning everyone.

Yet another blob is exiting the African coast.
1006. jake436
1:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Posted By: neutrino006 at 1:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2006.

is there a possibility that the low presure being caused by the altitude? and that's why the lowest pressure is below the hurricane's?


No. It has to do with the fact that the tropical storms that impacted the US this year were wimps. They were weak storms, and their pressure correlated with their winds, or vice versa. None of the storms I mentioned was a Hurricane at landfall, although Ernesto may get that distinction post mortum.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1005. ricderr
1:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
That's nothing, yesterday saddle invited someone to bring their "squirter thingy" to her any time they wished!
dang...that gal will do anything for some action...errrr..i mean rain....LOL
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21757
1004. neutrino006
1:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
is there a possibility that the low presure being caused by the altitude? and that's why the lowest pressure is below the hurricane's?
1003. jake436
1:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Posted By: saddlegait at 1:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2006.

jake - i noticed that - that's tornado weather for sure...here in AL, the pressure is doing something


At least 15 tornado reports yesterday, mostly in Kansas. Only 7 hail reports, and all small stuff. But the severe stuff will be north of you today, saddle. Kinda rare for September-October to have that kind of weather. Most September tornadoes are tropic related.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1002. jake436
1:39 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Posted By: ricderr at 1:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2006.

gator....mail backatcha......and here..becuase things are quiet right now...to add excitement..gator..last night...well..it was good for me too


That's nothing, yesterday saddle invited someone to bring their "squirter thingy" to her any time they wished!
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
1000. neutrino006
1:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
yes, I noticed the storm, and it is huge! more than half of US aria! and it was really looked like a continental hurricane to me...
999. jake436
1:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
BTW, good morning.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
998. jake436
1:34 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Any of you guys notice the pressure with that storm centered in the mid us? 985 mb low, lower than Alberto, Beryl, or Ernesto at landfall. Strongest US impact of the year?! In NEBRASKA?! Impressive low, looked like a hurricane in Nebraska last night on satellite.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
997. ricderr
1:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
gator....mail backatcha......and here..becuase things are quiet right now...to add excitement..gator..last night...well..it was good for me too
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21757
995. Tazmanian
1:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad surface low pressure
area is located 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This system is showing signs of organization...and some gradual
development is possible over the next few days as it moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
993. Gatorx
12:55 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Ricderr

you have mail - el misterio resolvió
992. caymanguy
12:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
hey folks,

seeing spacestation on nasa showing shuttle departure. as the crew were saying goodbyes their com with ground con it was mentioned that all the ceremonies had been done, ground con thanked them for carrying on a beautiful tradition.

anybody know what ceremonies they have to do up there? and what for?

i know, im off topic.....well they did have some nice shots of gordon lol
991. SWLAStormFanatic
12:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
So we go from the fine fall weather with low humidity and cool temps back to summer. Forecast LOW for tonight in LCH is 80 with a south wind off the GOM!

Obviously the GOM is still like bathwater.
990. kmanislander
12:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
bb soon
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
989. IKE
12:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
No depression today. It's FRIDAY!

Tropical Atlantic>>>>>>yawn..........

This season is winding down.........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
988. kmanislander
12:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
here's the QS pass for 96L
looks better here than on the sat images
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
987. tropicfreak
12:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Are we expecting a depression today?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
986. kmanislander
12:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
zap
here's the GHCC vis
click on the image for the close up
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
985. tropicfreak
12:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Mrp, it's a dangerous storm again! One day it's orgainized and the next it isn't! Now today its looking better organized.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
984. Zaphod
12:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Hmmm....the Cuba ULL is convecting (is that a proper verb?) as well. Maybe it'll spin down after all. Would like to see that, as it is so rare, but it wouldn't be a great thing to have a real storm there.
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
983. kmanislander
12:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
hi Zap

take a look at the recent QS pass and you will see that there is a definite rotation there but winds are light at the moment.
It looks to me that the heaviest convection is right over the low center at 13N51W
The zoom from the GHCC site is the best view
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
982. tornadodude
12:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
here is another sat pic
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
981. tropicfreak
12:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
It was a freezing night up here in richmond VA. Low was 47 degrees!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
980. sandcrab39565
12:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
CyberTeddy there has been several exercises over the last couple of years concerning NY there was one this spring. I will see if I can find the info on it and forward to everyone.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
979. Zaphod
12:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
The 53W blob isn't completely naked today, but what convection there is appears to me to be well off the rotational center. Is there a good view of low-level winds anywhere? The wind barbs on the WV plot are few and far between, but what is there shows a large circulation, with the convection on the northern side.

Probably bears watching, though, as there isn't much else to watch!
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
978. tornadodude
12:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
with the clearing over missouri, it looks like enough heating will cause plenty of instability for the tornado outbreak forcasted today. day one convective outlook
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
977. mrpuertorico
12:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Link
HERE TRYING MIKE NASO LINK AGAIN
(hope it works)
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
976. tropicallydepressed
12:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
Cybrteddy. i read your post yesterday and there was nothing wrong with it...since you are the only one that makes any sense at the moment do you know anything of this wave everyone is talking about. I can't see anything.
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
975. kmanislander
12:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2006
good morning all

I see that the 1010 mb low now at 13N 51W not only continues to refuse to dissipate as progged but continues to gather up convection.
When I started drawing attention to it yesterday it had only spotty convection that needed a microscope to see.
3 degrees further W will put it right where Gilbert became a TD
Anyone watching this ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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