Florence and Gordon and TD 8

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on September 12, 2006

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Bermuda is cleaning up after a brush with Hurricane Florence that brought only minimal damage. The eye of Florence passed 52 miles to the west of the island at 10am Monday, bringing sustained winds of 80 mph gusting to 110 mph to the eastern end of the island. Higher winds likely occurred on the island's western end. The storm surge brought only minor flooding, and Florence's winds damaged just five buildings, one of them because of a rare tornado on Sunday afternoon. No deaths or injuries were reported, except to two pink flamingos at the zoo killed by falling branches. All but 6,000 of the 25,000 customers that lost power have had their power restored by this morning.

Florence continues north towards an encounter with Newfoundland. The storm is looking very much like an extratropical storm on satellite imagery this morning. Cooler waters and hostile upper level winds are gradually weakening the storm. Florence should still pack plenty of punch as a 60 mph tropical storm Wednesday afternoon as it passes over the southeast corner of Newfoundland. The remains of Florence will continue east and may bring heavy rain and 40 mph winds to Ireland on Saturday.


Figure 1. Today's lineup of storms. Invest 94L has now become Tropical Depression 8. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Gordon headed out to sea
Tropical Storm Gordon formed yesterday from the area of disturbed weather that tailed Florence all the way across the Atlantic. Gordon is over warm waters and under light wind shear of 10 knots, and is expected to intensify into the season's third hurricane by Wednesday. Gordon is being pulled north by the same trough of low pressure that grabbed Florence, and the storm is a threat only to shipping interests.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 94L.

Tropical Depression Eight
A strong tropical wave with impressive rotation and plenty of intense thunderstorm activity that emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday is now Tropical Depression Eight. Wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a bit high, 15 knots, but the NHC's SHIPS model puts the shear much lower, at 6 knots. The shear is expected to stay low the next three days, and this should be Tropical Storm Helene by Wednesday night. There is an large area of dry air and African dust to the west and north of the system that may slow down the long-term development of the storm, and the storm may encounter higher shear due to stronger upper level winds on Friday.

The center of circulation was located about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, near 14N, 22W at 4:12am EDT today, according to the QuikSCAT satellite. Winds were about 20-25 mph near the center, with some stronger squalls several hundred miles to the south of the center. While it is too early to be confident of this storm's long range track, the historical map of similar September tropical depressions forming in this region show that only about 30% of these systems strike the Lesser Antilles or U.S. East Coast. Given this fact, plus the long range forecasts of an active jet stream pattern in the Atlantic the next two weeks, I'd give TD 8 a less than 20% change of striking land.

I'll be back with an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

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1832. Melagoo
4:26 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Geeze Gord looks like he is strengthening fast...

Much better formation then Flo
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1530
1830. Interpolator
2:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Story,
I am not calling you a wishcaster it was just a joke about the weather channel.
1829. moonlightcowboy
2:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
(Caribbean) 95L blob, (GOM) 96L blob? Are we blobbing this morning...good blob morning to all, then.

TD08 gonna make it? and What is 98E doing?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1828. StoryOfTheHurricane
2:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
eye - by the looks of it right now i dont see how it couldnt develop, but that can change rather quickly as we've seen before
1827. koppie
2:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
guys new blog up
1826. StoryOfTheHurricane
2:15 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
ty 456, its pretty annoying being labelled a wishcaster when all im doing is basing my opinions by what im watching on satellite imagery and nhc forecasts, all im saying is there is strong potential
1825. Interpolator
2:15 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
maybe we could webcast stormtop from under the blobs!!!!!!
1824. ricderr
2:13 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
well said inter
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20199
1823. eye
2:12 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
lol, i like it, The Blob Authority
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1822. Cavin Rawlins
2:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Gordon looks cool....

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1821. eye
2:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Story, you think that one will develop? Might do a Wilma(everyone here is saying the ONLY way Florida will get hit is if a system does a Wilma) There hasnt been storms in the Carribean, so it should be nice and warm and the GOM...although, the more cold fronts come down the "cooler" the GOM becomes.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1820. Interpolator
2:10 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
remember ricderr,
after years of wishcasting blobs we've earned the right to be called the BLOB authority.
1819. Cavin Rawlins
2:10 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
StoryOfTheHurricane, I agree with you, that under the right conditions the caribbean wave has the potential to become a TD.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1818. StoryOfTheHurricane
2:09 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
oh ok sorry i dont follow the pacific storms at all
1816. Cavin Rawlins
2:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Next Shot of Florence:

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1815. StoryOfTheHurricane
2:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
From 8AM Tropical Weather Discussion:

A WELL-DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UNLIKE THE TWO WAVES TO ITS EAST...THIS ONE IS VERY EASY TO FIND WITH A CLASSIC INVERTED V-SHAPE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SOME OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
1814. eye
2:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
is there an invest on the GOM blob, i personally think the blob over the islands has a better shot of being something "significant" TD 8 looks rather sick right now and probably has flippers.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1813. Cavin Rawlins
2:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
So, Gordon will be 85mph at 11am
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1812. ricderr
2:05 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
raises hand....oh...oh...oh....all excited even....is this when i get to get all grumpy and say...there's 2 active storms in the atlantic and people are blob casting!!!.not that i haven't looked them over...and will continue to do so...but i'm trying to come up with an over/under of how many complaints thinking the GOM blobs will draw
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20199
1811. eye
2:05 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
TD 8 looks sick
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1810. Cavin Rawlins
2:05 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
93E

93EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-145N-1003W

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1809. Patrap
2:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
..er Good morning,,chewd the Fat with Randrewl around 5 hrs ago,,drowsy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125705
1808. Cavin Rawlins
2:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
TD8:

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1807. StormJunkie
2:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Morning Gulf....

Did not know you could fly!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
1806. StoryOfTheHurricane
2:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
clarify 93E taz? coordinates?
1804. Cavin Rawlins
2:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Florence:

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1802. K8eCane
2:01 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
gotcha story!
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
1801. Patrap
2:01 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
..Checked on the Jupiter invest..the Great Red Spot seems to be trending West...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125705
1800. StormJunkie
2:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Morning thel....Good to see ya!

Looking forward to the changes? Smelley better be one of them! I made sure I thanked the Ga fans for the changes we have coming...

My throat is still sore from cursing the refs, the players, and Steve. Who the hell runs E-W in the endzone...

Sorry for the off topic y'all!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
1799. StoryOfTheHurricane
2:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
K8 im not saying it wont form, it just doesnt look as strong as our other 2 players quite yet
1798. Tazmanian
2:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
i thinnk we sould keep a eye on 93E
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
1797. FLKEYSRADIO
2:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
At what point would this blob possible become an invest?
1795. StoryOfTheHurricane
2:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
ECar blob is going to go NW
1794. Patrap
1:59 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
..is up..looking at the BOC..various Blobs..and stirring his Tea..Grrrrrrrrrr!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125705
1793. K8eCane
1:59 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
of course you dont have to if you dont want to lol
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
1792. StoryOfTheHurricane
1:59 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
yes regardless of what GulfScotsman or Ricderr may tell you, 12N 58W seems to be very likely to develop, no matter how colorful it may be
1791. WeatherByrd
1:59 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
so the blob has no rotation in the GOM and likely will not form?
1790. thelmores
1:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
"that area at 27/70 is going to have to fire up better then that to be anything worth discussing
"

just remember...... anything started as nothing! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
1789. Cavin Rawlins
1:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Gordon is up to 75knots (85mhp)----980mbars

07LGORDON.75kts-980mb

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1788. K8eCane
1:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
story
i like discussing things like 27/70
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
1787. benirica
1:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
What direction does our ECAR blob seem to be moving??
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1786. CFLSW
1:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Give it time. And remember I did say I was up all nite LoL
1785. StoryOfTheHurricane
1:57 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
that area at 27/70 is going to have to fire up better then that to be anything worth discussing
1784. WeatherByrd
1:57 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
So is the blob in the SW corner of the GOM going to form into anything?
1783. CFLSW
1:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
Almost looks like its going to suck that stuff over island into it?
Just starting It looks like.
It may be Ive just been up all nite. LoL
1782. thelmores
1:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2006
"A WEAK LOW
PRES AREA NOW APPEARS THAT IT MIGHT BE FORMING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NEAR 27N70W."

hmmm...... that seems to be the area i drew the circles around..... maybe I should read the discussion's sometimes! LOL

ahhh, it more exciting to "find it" yourself! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.