Florence departs; Gordon is born

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2006

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Hurricane Florence has done its worst in Bermuda, and is now headed north towards Newfoundland. The Bermuda airport did briefly record sustained hurricane force winds of 74 mph near 11am local time. The maximum winds reported on their regular observations occurred at 12:55pm local time: sustained winds of 66 mph, gusting to 90 mph. The airport is at the extreme eastern end of the island, and the large eye of Florence passed just to the west of the island. Thus, the western end of the island probably experienced higher winds of 80-90 mph. Florence's winds probably caused relatively minor damage. Bermuda's infrastructure is well able to withstand winds of Category 1 force, since much of the utility lines are buried underground, and the building codes demand that structures be able to withstand 110 mph Category 2 hurricane winds. The primary damage from Florence was probably a result of the expected 6-8 foot storm surge, topped by large battering waves up to 20 feet high.

Florence is expected to gradually weaken as wind shear increases and ocean temperatures decrease, and will pass close or over Newfoundland later this week as a powerful extratropical storm with 60 mph winds.

Gordon on the way towards Bermuda
The Hurricane Hunters investigated Tropical Depression Seven this afternoon, and found winds of 47 knots at their 1500 flight level at 3pm EDT. This implies surface winds of 40-45 mph, and TD 7 will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon at 5pm. The satellite appearance continues to improve, with the heavy thunderstorm activity moving over the center of circulation and low-level spiral bands starting to develop. Wind shear has fallen to just 10 knots, the waters are a warm 29C, and some continued development is likely today. Gordon is likely to follow a track similar to Florence, and may be a threat to Bermuda. However, most of the computer models indicate Gordon will pass well to the east of the island.

Bermuda's worry after that: a new African wave
A strong tropical wave with impressive rotation and plenty of intense thunderstorm activity has emerged from the coast of Africa today. Several of the reliable computer models are forecasting that this will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that heads westward across the Atlantic. Wind shear is a low 10 knots, and water temperatures are warm. If this system does develop, it would likely recurve out to sea and not affect any land areas--expect perhaps Bermuda.

Jeff Masters

Florence 9-11 (2 of 4) (LRandyB)
A shot inside Florence. This shot was taken near the heavier convection in the NE quadrant of the storm.
Florence 9-11 (2 of 4)

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1059. CThurricaner
7:56 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
As many have said it is TOO soon to discuss where T.D. 8 where actually head towards. If anyone needs to be concerned it will be from the Carolinas north to New England and the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes. It is a known fact that Cape Verde origin storms are the ones New England needs to watch out for. The GOF and probably Florida don't have much to worry about. It should be interesting!!
1058. Zaphod
3:54 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
Looks like I've been missing an interesting morning! Are the blog police in remission this morning?

Still watching that swirl over the Yucatan. Nearby convection flares and subsides, but really it hasn't done much yet.

Anything else new and intersting to monitor?
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
1057. PensacolaDoug
2:14 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I was the keyboard player. Conrad and I started BR in Spring of 1990. I was the only white guy in the band for years. I quit in summer of 2000 when we took the gig at Bamboo Willies.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
1055. AllyBama
2:10 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
it is so nice that we have a "lost friends" connection going on here :)..aahhh
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
1054. Fl30258713
2:10 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
Remember Henry from gregory street WH, dat's me.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1053. ricderr
2:10 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
new blog
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21592
1052. hurricane23
2:09 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I think it is unlikely TD8 will make across especially if it intensifys.Odds are it will recurve.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13767
1051. Fl30258713
2:09 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I used to cook waffle house and played harmonica in late 80's
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1050. PensacolaDoug
2:08 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I played with BR for 10 years. I named the band. And co-founded it.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
1049. PensacolaDoug
2:07 PM GMT on September 12, 2006

Conrad and company, my favorites. I used to play with them at Tradder John's



Then you know me.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
1048. ricderr
2:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
hey rank.....look at 2000..last comment on td8....good for a laugh
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21592
1047. Fl30258713
2:05 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
Conrad and company, my favorites. I used to play with them at Tradder John's
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1045. hurricane23
2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
TD8 seems to be moving @ a fast clip i would say around 15-20 mph.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13767
1041. zephyr63
2:01 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I love Sublime's profound lyrics hehe
1034. hurricane23
1:58 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 9:55 AM EDT on September 12, 2006.

Smoke pot, smoke pot, everybody smoke pot........


(This is uncalled for in this blog).
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13767
1032. AllyBama
1:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
good morning Gulf..yes we desperately need the rain..

Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
1029. moonlightcowboy
1:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I'm an exodus in a nowhere, a paradox in a paradigm.

So, when is TD08 time frame on entering the GOM?

Morning all!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1028. PensacolaDoug
1:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I'm still the Walrus!


GooGooGaJoob!

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
1027. hurricane23
1:56 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
94L continues to look very impressive....



Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13767
1025. ricderr
1:56 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
O.J. is innocent!...rand....and some days..i cross that boundary..LMAO...your day today buddy

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21592
1020. AllyBama
1:53 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
good morning 27!

so much going on in here this morning..TD8, aliens, politics, football and PAUL is dead? lol
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
1017. hurricane23
1:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2006

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13767
1016. Fl30258713
1:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I'm a conservative Democrat, I'm always awake
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1013. ihave27windows
1:51 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
I'm a moderate conservative.

Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1012. ricderr
1:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
i'm a liberal republican....but not awake yet
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21592
1011. ihave27windows
1:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
Good morning Ally......much the same here in H-Town.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1010. AllyBama
1:48 PM GMT on September 12, 2006
good morning everyone!

80% chance of rain here today.. :)
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.