Shear rules!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on July 30, 2005

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The tropical wave near Puerto Rico that was close to becoming a tropical depression yesterday is looking very disorganized this morning, and I imagine NHC will cancel the reconnaissance mission that was scheduled to fly into it this afternoon. The wave was probably hurt by its interaction with the big islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanolia, but the primary reason for its demise was the large area of high wind shear that pushed down on it from the north. This morning's wind shear analysis from University of Wisconsin's CIMSS shows a large upper level cold-cored low pressure system just north of Puerto Rico, which is bringing wind shear values of up to 50 knots over the northern portion of the tropical wave. Usually, wind shear values above 20 knots are sufficient to keep a tropical depression from forming, so it is no wonder this tropical wave had trouble last night as the big cold low slid to the south and brought such strong shearing winds with it.



The wave is continuing to the west and bringing heavy rains to Hispanolia, but the path in front of it has plenty of strong shearing winds, so development is unlikely. Similarly, the rest of the tropics have some of the highest levels of shear we've seen this hurricane season, so it looks like a quiet next few days. With the demise of Franklin last night, today is the first tropical storm-free day since July 2!

Dr. Jeff Masters

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792. weatherboykris
7:05 PM GMT on February 09, 2007
LOL.You 'aint even here to defend yourself.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
791. weatherboykris
7:05 PM GMT on February 09, 2007
I agree...you're a jerk ST.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
790. Alec
3:34 AM GMT on August 02, 2005
stormtop that was mean.
789. STORMTOP
3:10 AM GMT on August 02, 2005
toyota you tell me that when the next tropical depression develops in the gulf of mexico..you are nothing but a chronic complainer and a beginner you dont know anything pertaining to storm development and im wondering about alec also..he doesnt have it all up stairs...look at the yucatan its exploded....
788. Raysfan70
12:39 AM GMT on August 02, 2005
where is everyone?
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
787. Alec
11:14 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
go to the next blog toyotaman. i agree. i sent him a message of his mean message to him. sorry that there are some that are so inconsiderate on here.
786. Toyotaman
11:12 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
You know its funny that Stormtop is the only person who see's something that is not there. Just like the depression near puerto rico last week, or gert becoming a major hurricane and hitting La. LOL
785. Toyotaman
11:09 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
Just returned from dinner, I cannot believe that Stormtop, of all people,has accused me of not getting anything right. I have been on here since emily and the only forecast the he has gotten right is the wave that has practically dissapated crossing the islands. I did get that one wrong. and I will admit it. How about you Stormtop?
784. Alec
10:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
weatherboy, i told him earlier that there is no surface circulation or anything but an upper level low in that area. I asked stormtop to give me the sites where he gets this info from and he says he gets it from a friend at the NHC.
783. weatherboyfsu
10:17 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
WE HAVE A NEW BLOG FROM DR MASTERS....IM GOING OVER THERE!
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
782. weatherboyfsu
10:12 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I Didnt see anything stormtop....maybe i blinked and miss it.....there is maybe a little swirl just NW of Jamaica near cuba but thats all....I really looked hard but couldnt see any circulation...........did you see it alec?
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
781. Alec
10:03 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
say your sorry to Toyotaman stormtop. That was a mean statement.
780. weatherboyfsu
10:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
STORMTOP....YOU HAVE A BUDDY??????????..........OK IM GOING TO LOOK AT THIS SUSPICIOUS LOW.....I'LL BE BACK
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
779. STORMTOP
9:49 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
the trough is disipating and the shear is lessening giving the low to fire up more convection n of the western tip of cuba....there is a weak suface low out n of the western tip of cuba and convection continues to develop around that circulation...looking for recon plane to investigate area tomorrow if this keeps up...i dont want to hear anything from the non believers ..this doesnt come from me it comes from my buddy at the nhc...
778. Alec
9:46 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
lol @ weatherboy.
777. weatherboyfsu
9:40 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I JUST GOT BACK FROM THE FUNERAL FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT DIED LAST NIGHT!!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
776. weatherboyfsu
9:38 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
HELLO EVERYONE....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
775. LSUHurricaneHunter
9:32 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
hey stormtop, how about that 5:30 outlook? wheres the gulf activity>
774. Alec
9:27 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
by the way you spelled blog wrong.
773. Alec
9:26 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
that was very mean stormtop. Say your sorry to toyota.
771. LSUHurricaneHunter
9:08 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
are you saying that the 5:30 outlook will mention the activity in the gulf?
770. STORMTOP
9:05 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
LOL@PUNK JUST REMEMBER WHERE YOU HEARD IT FROM..IM NOT PLAYING HERE YOU WILL BE VERY SURPRISED..I SUGGEST YOU LOOK AT THE NEW DATA COMING IN AT 5PM...
769. punkasshans
9:01 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
"the blow". . .meant to be "the blow up"

But i am sure you all understood.
768. punkasshans
9:00 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
Also, you can see on water vapor loops that the blow in the Gulf is dieing out. Expect it to be gone in the next hour or so.
767. Toyotaman
8:59 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I think Stormtop is hopeing so that at least one of his predictions will be right.
766. punkasshans
8:58 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
Convection begining to blow up on the NORTH side of the circulation east of the Bahamas. Look on RAMSDIS, the satellite on the left hand side loop:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/tropical.html
765. LSUHurricaneHunter
8:55 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
there is a small blob of convection, but,imo not enough to merit investigation.
764. punkasshans
8:53 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
Im sorry stormtop, but there isnt any convection near the center of that circulation. And on top of that, that circulation is an upper-level low. I just dont see it developing.

Look to the east, look off of Africa or the low east of the Bahamas if you want development. Those are your best chances (however little if no risk to the United States)
763. Toyotaman
8:53 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
What convection, there is nothing there but an what looks like an upper level low. Ver few clouds associated with it. I don't see what you are seeing Stormtop.
762. STORMTOP
8:39 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
thinking about it......if covection keeps developing they will...
761. LSUHurricaneHunter
8:32 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
stormtop, are they thinking about it or is it planned?
760. punkasshans
8:28 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
he says a friend from the NHC tells him
759. LSUHurricaneHunter
8:23 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
stormtop, where are you finding that they are sending recon into the gulf tommorrow?
758. Hawkeyewx
8:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
There is nothing developing in the Gulf now and there will be nothing developing in the Gulf in the near future.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
757. STORMTOP
8:10 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
well they are thinking about sending a plane from keesler tomorrow...the shear is lessening and the gulf is prime for development...
756. punkasshans
8:04 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
But they are upper level lows. . why would they develop into a depression? I just dont see it, considering the conditions in that region. The NHC even said the low level trough will disipate in the next 24 hours.
755. STORMTOP
8:00 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
the gulf of mexico will where TD8 will come from...i said this yesterday to watch the gulf and now the convection is starting to fire up....look out here..
754. punkasshans
7:31 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
A lot of the models have a storm developing out of the wave coming off of Africa. Like i said before, this wave is not impressive now, but its coming into a strong environment.
753. HurricaneKing
7:29 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I'm going to my blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
752. punkasshans
7:27 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I just dont see any way that it could. The front is protecting the US, there just isnt any way for it to get through. It is way too far north now.
751. HurricaneKing
7:21 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I say it will.But thats my own opinion.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
750. Hawkeyewx
7:17 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
punkass is right about the Bahamas low... it is not hitting the US
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
749. HurricaneKing
7:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
SOUTHEAST...
AN INTERESTING FEATURE POPS UP OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST THIS PD AND
MOVES NWWD. WHILE THE 00Z NOGAPS SEEMS TO BELIEVE IT IS THE SFC
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SERN BAHAMAS...THE GFS HAS HAD IT FOR A FEW
RUNS NOW AS DOES THE 12Z UKMET DESPITE THEIR RECURVING THE TROP
FEATURE ENEWD OUT TO SEA. ADDED AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT
RETROGRADES NWWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRI/EARLY SAT THAT SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA UNTIL DISSIPATION.

Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
748. HurricaneKing
7:10 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
747. punkasshans
7:07 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
So hurricaneking, you think the wave east of the bahamas will develop into TWO systems?
746. EmmyRose
6:52 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
Hawkeyewx is right nothing much brewing over here in Houston and out in the Gulf near us - 30% chance of rain due to those lows but nothing is forming -
Sorry guys, all is quiet on this western front LOL
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
745. HurricaneKing
6:52 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I think it will develop and move away. It will leave behind some energy and that will develop and hit the US.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
744. HurricaneKing
6:50 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
I asked what was the 50% but he left.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
743. punkasshans
6:49 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
It is interesting that Stormtop left 50% chance of the storm doing absolutely anything. Thats not like him.
742. punkasshans
6:47 PM GMT on August 01, 2005
Anyway, i also think its impossible for the wave east of the bahamas to come to the United States. The front is still protecting us, and with the high pressure moving further and further east out into the Atlantic, this storm is headed out to sea.

The caribbean wave is dead. Simple as that.

The wave coming off of Africa has the greatest chance of development at this point. Not because it has large amount of convection, but because it is further north than the ITCZ (ie further north than 10N) and has lots of warm water to travel over for possible development.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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