Little change to Florence

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on September 07, 2006

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Florence continues to struggle with 10-15 knots of wind shear today, and doesn't appear any stronger than yesterday. QuikSCAT satellite data from this morning at 5:26am showed only a few patches of 50 mph winds. Compounding Florence's troubles has been the presence of some dry air at mid levels, which Dr. Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division pointed out in a blog yesterday.

The big questions with Florence are, will she intensify, and how close will she pass to Bermuda? Well, the intensity forecast remains the same, with the upper level low to the west forecast to move off and allow a lower shear environment for Florence to intensify in. The GFDL model intensifies Florence to a strong Category 2 hurricane at her closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. However, Florence has thus far resisted intensification, so a more conservative intensity forecast may be in order.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT satellite winds estimates for Thursday morning, September 8, 2006. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

All the computer models are unanimous in bringing Florence close to Bermuda, then out to sea, missing both the U.S. and Canada (although a sideswipe of Newfoundland is possible). It would be a major surprise if Florence hit the U.S. We can, however, expect plenty of heavy surf and minor beach erosion along the East Coast next week if Florence does intensify into a Category 2 hurricane. Bermuda is a small target in a big ocean, and I expect that island will escape a direct hit from Florence. Florence is a very large storm, though, and tropical storm force winds will probably affect the island Sunday through Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Florence Friday afternoon.

Florence strangles her little brother
Tropical disturbance 91L, about 800 miles east-southeast of Florence, is no longer a threat to develop. The disturbance's close proximity to its big sister has proved too much for the disturbance, which now has very little spin and just a few thunderstorms. There is a small chance 91L could separate from Florence on Sunday and make a comeback, just northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands.

Carolinas disturbances
A stalled cold front off the Carolina coast spawned a low-pressure area yesterday that moved quickly northeast and is now northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This low is under 30 knots of wind shear and is transitioning into an extratropical storm, and is not a threat to become a tropical storm. This morning's 7:07am EDT QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) does show one orange 30 knot (34 mph) wind barb, so this low is of tropical depression strength. Another area of low pressure off the South Carolina coast this morning is poised to repeat what yesterday's system did. This area of disturbed weather had winds up to 40-50 mph in some heavy squalls in the QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:13am EDT today. The system does have some potential to develop into a tropical depression today as it scoots northeast just offshore the North Carolina coast. However, it will probably not have enough time to develop, and will become extratropical by Friday afternoon over the waters to the northeast of Cape Hatteras.

Huge extratropical storm hits Brazil
Perhaps the most damaging storm in the world this September was not Ernesto in the Atlantic, John in Baja, nor Ioke on Wake Island. Brazil had an usually intense wintertime extratropical cyclone bring wind gusts to hurricane force along the coast of Brazil's southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, on September 2. Winds of 101 km/h in that state's capital city of Porto Alegre tore roofs of of houses, downed trees and powerlines, and caused power outages to half a million people. Luiz Fernando Nachtigall, Chief Meteorologist for MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center, sent me a link to some damage photos from the event. After the wind event, the storm brought the most widespread snow event in Southern Brazil since 1994. It snowed in 62 cities.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the September 2, 2006 extratropical cyclone that affected Brazil. The storm had a minimum pressure of 980 mb, similar to what one finds in a Category 1 hurricane! Extratropical cyclones that move over warm ocean currents can start to exhibit characteristics of hurricanes, as I described in my February blog, Flying into a record Nor'easter. Extratropical storms of this intensity happen fairly regularly off the Northeast U.S. coast, but are extremely rare along the Brazilian coast. Image credit: MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon or Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1973. funeeeg
2:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Global warming is a fact, the question is how much of it is man made. It seems that the argument is becoming increasingly polarised; the scientists on one side and those in denial on the other. The greater the denial the more seeingly outraged and outrageous the scientists claims and conjecture becomes.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 218
1972. HurryKaneKata
2:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Is there anything out there, other than Flo we can watch?

I have to admit I'm getting bored with this season....I should be ashamed.


How can you get bored with Flo? She is Large,mysterious,and interesting to look at!
what a storm!!!
1969. littlefish
2:03 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Well at least there's a couple cloud blobs in Atlantic today. Yesterday looked vacant other than Flo...
1968. ihave27windows
2:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
I don't mind sharing Robin.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1967. robinvtx
2:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
ok i get it. but i like jim too.... even though..... lol... that was a beautiful picture though
1966. A4Guy
1:59 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Jim Cantore is v. sexy!
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 660
1965. ihave27windows
1:59 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Robin, it was a joke.....Earlier, while I was lurking, ricderr made a comment that if they evacuated Bermuda, and Jim Cantore was ther, I would be the only tourist staying.

For Everyone, I AM NOT IN BERMUDA! LOL
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1964. PascMississippi
1:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Posted By: Zaphod at 8:27 AM CDT on September 08, 2006.

Obviously, I am slow, thickwitted, and sleepy!
But I am interested in the new blob at 8N 38W. Flo is waxing and waning as usual, and as ugly as ever.

Does anyone see any potential with this blob?
1962. ricderr
1:56 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Delay caused by digging for too much information
rand...while that may be true....it doesn't make for colorful commentary..so...until it is confirmed...we here at the WU Bugle cannot accept that statement and will have to report the 'facts" as we know them
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21581
1959. eye
1:49 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
So do yall think we will have a major cane this season?

Tis the season of no eyes?(clear)?
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1958. Fl30258713
1:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
not enough coffee yet, mornin' all, thank you WU for modify comments option.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1957. ricderr
1:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
RAND.....ok..so i take it that is the official rand forecast?......ok..so the rumor mill will just have to shift to..why such a delay....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21581
1956. Gatorx
1:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
ihave27windows-

thank you..but you have a good explanation..if I were in Bermuda with hunky Jim..I would not be on this blog...
1955. robinvtx
1:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
27 you really there??? friggin beautiful view if in fact you are. i am going to panama city florida 1st week of october cant wait to see the white sand and blue water. have fun
1954. Zaphod
1:46 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
GLOBAL WARMING! HERE COME THE DINOSAURS!

The latest super-heated earth blurb:
Link

Fortunately, while we're heading pell-mell for a mass extinction event, we're also heading for the technology cross-over point at which amateurs will be able to create new and interesting life forms (viruses, pets, etc) via genetic engineering.

Zap

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
1953. Cavin Rawlins
1:46 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Tropical Storm Florence:

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1952. eye
1:46 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Taz, there is nothing else out there besides Fisherwoman Flo.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1951. ihave27windows
1:46 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Sorry Gator......Morning
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1950. eye
1:44 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Jim is going to be chasing Canes when he is 100. He will look 50 however...he is going to be the next Hope.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1949. Gatorx
1:44 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
OK I said good morning to everyone..and no one said good morning back...so now I will say goodbye...grocery shoppin day...TGIF ..payday
1947. ricstevenson
1:42 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
what is a 'detecture'?
1946. Tazmanian
1:42 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
91L and 92L are gone now from the navy site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
1945. caribbeanweather
1:42 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:38 PM GMT on Septiembre 08, 2006.

yawm whats new with are TS today


Taz..i have good news and bad news for yuo..the good news...we have right now 6 tropical systems in the altantic to track...is amazing!!....the bad news...I am lying..there is only 1 and is flo....lol
1944. Fl30258713
1:40 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
IH27W, starting early,lol.

Have fun while you can. 15 or 20 years Jim will be hunched over wearing earphones for his metal detector, scanning the beach for his microphone,lol.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1942. eye
1:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Bermuda, Bahamas, come on pretty momma...
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1941. Tazmanian
1:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
yawm whats new with are TS today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
1940. Zaphod
1:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Note the NHC position of 22.1N 57.6W. Their 5:00 position is well S of their own forecast track.

With a little luck Flo will go W of Bermuda and E of the coast.

Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
1939. Gatorx
1:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Good Morning everyone....that's all I can say...I mean there is just nothin to say about the weather..
1938. caribbeanweather
1:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 1:33 PM GMT on Septiembre 08, 2006.

Mornin 32.

Does anyone know if Bermuda is a British Crown Colony or is it an independent nation?

No, I don't feel like going to Wikipedia.


Bermuda is externally a self-governing overseas territory of the United Kingdom. It makes all its own laws. UK and European Community laws do not apply in Bermuda. Britain, as the country responsible for Bermuda, shrugs off the citizenship laws of Bermuda that state that newcomers from other countries can come here to work despite the island's small size and exceptionally high population per square mile but, unlike in Britain, are not allowed to gain citizenship or vote or acquire lower-priced real estate unless they they qualify for citizenship in ways no other Western country require. In the UK, USA, Canada and elsewhere, citizenship comes after 3 (if married to a national) or 5 years, tops. But not in Bermuda, not even if you stay longer than 5 years.
1937. ihave27windows
1:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Thanks 32, and PB&J, for checking.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1936. The32ndDegree
1:35 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
27 - it's a Crown dependancy of Great Britain.

32*
1935. ihave27windows
1:34 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Goo is that stuff thats in the bottom of the trash can.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1934. PBG00
1:34 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
I thought independent...i will check
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1933. ihave27windows
1:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Mornin 32.

Does anyone know if Bermuda is a British Crown Colony or is it an independent nation?

No, I don't feel like going to Wikipedia.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1932. Gatorx
1:32 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Thank you 456-

Your posts with graphics are the single most informative learning tool for me. Keep up the good work.
1931. PBG00
1:32 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Better than Goo!
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1930. The32ndDegree
1:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Good morning!

32*
1929. ihave27windows
1:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Mornin PGB....or as I call you PB&J.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1927. Zaphod
1:30 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Is there a recent quikscat out?
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
1926. PBG00
1:30 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Wow! You people start early! G'mornin to all!
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1925. ihave27windows
1:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Good Morning Gulf......I think we should have fun today......and who the heck is Captain Tomato?
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
1924. Zaphod
1:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
Obviously, I am slow, thickwitted, and sleepy!

But I am interested in the new blob at 8N 38W. Flo is waxing and waning as usual, and as ugly as ever.

Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
1923. vortextrance
1:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2006
I can only imagine how disapointed the TD and open wave wishers are as Flo continues to see more favorable conditions and is likely to begin slowly gaining strength today.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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