TD #8 slow to come...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:27 PM GMT on July 29, 2005

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The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigating the tropical wave near Puerto Rico did not find a closed circulation indicating a tropical depression had formed this afternoon, which is not surprising given the sparse cloud cover associated with this system. Still, the cloud pattern does show a good degree of organization and upper-level winds are still favorable, so a tropical depression could form tomorrow morning. The timing of formation will be critical. If the storm just gets its act together as it hits Hispanolia, will it be able to survive crossing the island and reform on the other side? I've never seen a tropical depression try to form basically on top of Hispanolia, which appears as if what this storm wants to try to do. I'm not sure if a developing tropical depression can survive crossing the island, and I bet in most cases it will not. However, this is the Hurricane Season of 2005, so consider it likely.

The long range radar loop out of San Juan, PR, should be interesting to watch tonight. About 10-11pm convection should start to pick up, as we head into the usual midnight - 4am maximum in thunderstorm activity over the tropics. This may be enough to trigger the extra low-level convergence needed to get this storm spinning up into a tropical depression.

I figured out how to plot the early model runs (well, at least the BAMM and GFDL), I will try to keep this image updated.

Jeff Masters

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244. STORMTOP
3:48 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
hawk one more day i think you will make it unless isee to the east of the islands starts to take off..i also see some shear that should make you safe lol...
243. STORMTOP
3:44 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
GOOD JOB HAWK YOU CALLED IT MAN...SORRY ABOUT THE CAPS..i need to sharpen up no more wild predictions unless i see it can happen...once again hawk we need to let you take over..good job...
242. outrocket
2:42 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
yea hawkeye,The SW shear you spoke of yesterday caused by that mid low over N.S.AMERICA...does seem to shove what ever develops more north..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
241. Hawkeyewx
2:40 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
I meant someone well above, before Storm.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
240. Hawkeyewx
2:39 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
Someone above inquired about the blowup of convection south of the Dominican Republic. There does appear to be a partial rotation center down there, but that will soon move over land so I don't think anything could come out of that.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
239. STORMTOP
2:32 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
yes i hear you theres another big area of convection to the south of the dominican republic..
238. Hawkeyewx
2:24 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
I doubt they'll send in a plane today unless a big blowup of convection, maybe north of PR, can maintain itself for several hours. So far with this wave the convective activity has been nothing but scattered small to moderate blowups that quickly vanish followed by more small to moderate blowups that quickly vanish, etc. For this thing to get going the convection needs to be deep and persistent in one area.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
237. STORMTOP
2:22 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
hummmm i see on the radar at sann juan 3.5 inches per hour n of san juan...thats some very heavy rain..this thing has picked up in at least the rain intensity..
236. STORMTOP
2:14 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
it looks real interesting though...is the recon plane cancelled there flight today..
235. Hawkeyewx
2:09 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
storm, before you say there is a circulation north of PR, that spin is just a leftover mid level rotation from a blowup of convection overnight. The visible loop clearly shows the low level flow under this weak mid level spin is uniform from the southeast.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
234. STORMTOP
2:01 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
hawk im afarid you are not going to make your prediction..this wave is really getting its act together on the n side of pr..it went around the mountains..
233. Jedkins
1:49 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
I am sure something could possibly develop out of it being that its 2005,just dont ignore it thats all Im saying,conditions are still favorable ahead of the wave.
232. Jedkins
1:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
Well at least for the tomporary
231. Jedkins
1:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
Ya looks like no hurricane for florida,well at least some extra moisture for more thunderstorms tropical flooding rains each and every day.
230. evolution
1:44 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
i agree hawkeye, but its just funny that this wave is so defiant. every time we put it out for the count, it starts some new area of convection. question though...this new area of convection to the southwest of hispanola....does anyone see this area having any implications toward the development of this wave.
also, i agree with the other wave east of the islands, it's starting to show some signs of organization, but it's also entering a hostile shear environment. it'll have to overcome quite a bit to develop further. we'll see.
229. outrocket
1:38 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
Great observation hawkeye!..carib is kinda hostile,things may improve as high ridges back in..time will tell.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
228. Hawkeyewx
1:35 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
Looks like the PR wave may be done for good. The NAM model still develops it into something near the Bahamas, but that doesn't look likely at this point. The new wave east of the islands does have some better convection this morning, but it will take some time to get organized and it will probably enter the less favorable eastern Caribbean before it can do anything.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
227. evolution
1:34 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
that's kind of what i was thinking. thanks for confirming. not that we need the showers here in s. florida, but i welcome that afternoon thunder, and incredible evenging lighting we've been having lately! adds a bit of energy to the air.
226. outrocket
1:28 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
first off that upper low is in a hostile enviroment,the Gulf is strange for this time of year..The frontal boundry in N. Gulf has a weak mid level circulation inhibiting alot of moisture..This low retrograding across fl will have alot of shear in its future and as the bermuda high ridges back in It will push it more west at a faster clip I suspect..so I dont see nothing from it but increased showers for FL...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
225. evolution
1:24 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
hopefully some of us can engage in some interesting tropical discussion today. obviously there are those of us who are always watching this blog, but choose not to post until something is really going on. anyone else in for some actual weather discussion?! i'm always watching. also...OUTROCKET, you confirm this upper level low, but a question for you. is it possible for this low to make itself into a tropical system....or no.....why??
224. evolution
1:20 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
how about that intensifying convection southwest of hispanola that has just exploded?!?!? is this thing trying to split and get around the mountains? this wave won't form anything, but it's the wave that just won't quit!! very strange wave indeed. it also seems like the wave at 12n 53w is undergoing some interesting convection also, keeping an eye on this one.
223. outrocket
1:19 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
correct its an upper low and its retrograding West..the Bermuda high may ridge back in lessening the shear and provide a better enviroment for organization..for the wave near hispinola
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
222. evolution
1:15 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
the one south of florida is an upper level low correct? can anyone verify (other than stormtop) not much chance of it forming a low level circulation to become a tropical system, however, it will continue to be a major weather maker for those of us in south florida. it has brought some nice lighting to the area this past few days.
221. Raysfan70
1:13 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
Can anyone tell me what they think the Bermuda High is looking like for the outcome I have read that they believe that it will be in or around the same area that it was last year. As I live Tampa and have a sister that lives on the east coast. I am new to this blog and don't know if this question has been asked in the past.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
220. Toyotaman
1:11 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
It would be nice if this was also forum based with off-topic and serious discussions, maybe someone could start one, or maybe even a chat room dedicated to storms.
219. Toyotaman
12:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
evolution, that one actually looks more impressive than the one near puerto rico. We'll have to see if the shear lets up in the next couple of days. How about the persistant blob of rain se of Key Largo. It seems to be holding together. No circulation yet though. Wait and see on that one too.
218. outrocket
12:52 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
What that shows me evolution..is maybe DR.Masters should have two blogs...one for the serious to ask questions and have serious imput..and one thats more or less real time for the weather enthusiest who like to talk to others with like interest on or off topic while they watch the tropics..I try to keep my post on topic or imput that strike's an interest..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
217. evolution
12:26 PM GMT on July 30, 2005
yes i see the wave at 12n 53w, it is starting to show some signs of potential develpment. but it's moving into a less favorable environment.....higher shear in the carribean. i would've responded sooner, but it has taken me 45 minutes to read through all of the non related BS posted by others. don't get me wrong, i love to hear what people are thinking......but some of you guys need some help with finding something else to do when there is no tropical activity instead of filling this blog with rambling jargon!
216. outrocket
11:49 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
The wave near PR looks to be getting the squeeze by the upper level low retrograding west over the fl pennisula and as the Bermuda high ridges back in ,it's squashing the convection on the north side of the wave..things may improve(the enviroment)later in the day,if so this thing may spin up yet...Now I think maybe we should focus more of our attention to 12N and 53W...that wave is starting to really look good and convection is picking up any thoughts?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
215. fireweed
8:26 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
I like this blog and it gives such good information about a fascinating subject even for us in Sweden. I have been visiting Barbados for a number of years but in the "quiet dry" season of Christmas A question: How will Franklin affect weather in Europe? He still seems st be a considerable blob of clouds and we get most of our weather over the Atlantic
214. cjnew
5:42 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
thank you for the reminder seawall....i wouldnt want them to take the blog away...try and keep me in check if i get off topic...later
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
213. Alec
5:42 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
never mind lets go to cj's blog. im outtaaaaa here!!!!
212. Alec
5:41 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
scrap the last comment.
211. cjnew
5:41 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
sorry seawall and jeff...i never read that blog or i would have stopped........do yall want to go to my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
210. Alec
5:41 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
cj lets go to your blog now. well talk serious hurricane stuff on jeffs blog. see ya there!
209. cornflake826
5:40 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
nO WHEN THE MODELS RAN THAT WAS CURRENT WIND FORECAST AT THAT HOUR, JUST LIKE THEY HAVE 66 IN 12 HR, THEN GETTING SHRED UP OVER DR, AND THEN IN 72HR HAVE BACK TO 66MPH. IT WAS PROBABLY RAN AT 1AM OR 12MIDNIGHT
208. cjnew
5:39 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
yeah i think it has a eywall...j/k but there are some thunderstorms that form a circle:)
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
207. Seawall
5:38 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
Jeff Masters wrote this on July 27
I'd also like to mention that the comments to this blog have gotten too excessive to be of value for the majority of our readers. I encourage those of you who are trying to set a record for a high number of posts to resist that urge. It is difficult for people to find some useful URL or question that needs answering, due to the large number of posts. However, I am pleased with the general tone of all the posts; flame wars have not been a problem. Thanks. On to today's topic--
Jeez, can you guys not resist a number count here, now!
Don't you understand, the useless replies to the Blogs will result in the Blogs being removed? It's one thing to converse, but my goodness, look at your posts. I really don't care in one way or the other, but please, respect Mr. Masters.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
206. Alec
5:38 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
minutes*
205. cjnew
5:38 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
i asked that question yesterway.thats cool though
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
204. Alec
5:37 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
i never asked you that question yesterway. cj did.lol
203. cornflake826
5:37 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
WELL I DONT KNOW BUT i ASSUME THAT SOMEWHERE IS GETTING 58MPH WINDS, MAYBE THE CONVECTION S OF SW PR
202. cjnew
5:37 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
give me 10 minnutes alec.i'll be there...lol...just kidding we will have to meet when we storm chase...it will be our motivation...besides the storm
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
201. yesterway
5:36 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
Alec...I never saw the Governor but it was a quiet place to study and live...
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
200. Alec
5:36 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
i think 00 means initial time it was read.
199. cjnew
5:35 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
so what does that mean....about ships having it at 58 in zero hours
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
198. cornflake826
5:35 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
But when Dr masters first posted this entry the ships model had 0HR posted at 31 or 33,
197. Alec
5:35 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
when?
196. cjnew
5:34 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
ok i'll be there
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
195. Alec
5:34 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
arranged*
194. cjnew
5:34 AM GMT on July 30, 2005
oh see.....i take things literally...sorry lol.....im happier now though
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.