Tropical Depression Six almost has its name

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2006

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Tropical Depression Six is nearly a tropical storm, as evidenced by winds of 25-35 knots seen in this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). Visible satellite imagery shows an increase in curved low-level rain bands forming, and satellite estimates of the storm's strength already put it at minimal tropical storm strength (40 mph). The computer models all forecast that this storm will most likely pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, although that is too far in the future to be confident of this forecast. The long-range GFS model forecast continues to show TD 6 becoming a powerful hurricane that threatens Bermuda, but recurves out to sea well east of the U.S. East Coast. Wind shear over the system is low, about 10 knots, but may increase a bit to 10-15 knots over the next two days. After that, wind shear should die down and a large anti-cyclone build over the storm, potentially allowing it to intensify into a hurricane. The large area of thunderstorms about 400 miles southwest of TD 6, formerly designated "Invest 98L", is still there, and may be slowing down the intensification of TD 6. As TD 6 grows, it should be able to absorb the remnants of 98L.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT satellite winds from Monday morning, September 4 2006. Wind speed and direction are coded according to the standard station model, and are color coded (in knots) according to the color scale at the upper right (10 knots = 11.5 mph). Black winds barbs occur where there is rain, and one cannot trust the wind speeds measured in those areas. Tropical storm force winds (35 knots) are colored red, brown, or purple; one can see one red wind barb in TD 6.

Cape Verdes Islands tropical wave
A strong new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Saturday and is a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave has a closed circulation, which can be seen on QuikSCAT imagery from this morning (Figure 1). The thunderstorm activity associated with the wave is limited and disorganized. The wave is under a modest 10 knots of wind shear, and has some potential for slow development over the next few days.

Caribbean tropical wave
The small tropical wave that moved into the Caribbean yesterday has become much less organized and is no longer a threat to develop. The remains of "Invest 99L" can be seen on the QuikSCAT image from this morning (Figure 1) as a small area of black wind barbs (which denote rain) between South America and Hispaniola. There are a few yellow wind barbs in there, representing winds of 20-25 knots. The wind barbs mostly point the same way, with only a small change in wind direction in the wave. This is the sign of a weak tropical wave. A sharp change in wind direction occurs in strong tropical waves, with this strong wind shift eventually amplifying into a complete circular rotation if the wave develops into a tropical depression.

John is dead
The remains of Hurricane John are about 2/3 of the way up the Baja Peninsula, and will spread heavy rains of up to 1-3 inches into Arizona, New Mexico, and western Texas over the next few days. John destroyed many roads and took the roofs off of at least 150 houses in Mexico's Baja.

Typhoon Ioke
Typhoon Ioke is now barely a typhoon, with top winds of 75 mph. Ioke is caught in a large trough of low pressure that is weakening it and recurving it out to sea. Ioke is not a threat to any land.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. Have a good Labor Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Beached Boat (cruadin)
We had some gusty winds from the remains of Ernesto. This boat broke from its mooring sometime last night and was pushed ashore at Third Beach in Middletown, RI.
Beached Boat

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1289. dads1boss
1:14 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
we never know until it happens
1288. PBG00
1:07 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
new blog
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1287. Rick54
1:04 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Posted By: hurricane79 at 12:58 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
Remember that if my forecast for the first 48 hours hold to fruition, then all models will have to re-initialize the position. We will not know the answer to that until tomorrow.

Help me understand here ... Met and Climatology classes were 25 years ago and I'm just getting back into really looking hard at the weather.

Should the track shift S. as you say would the pressure differential between the storm and the high increase to the point that it is likely not going to impinge as much on the high? In other words will the steering force of the high be increased?
1286. will40
1:03 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
the center will probably relocate back and forth the next couple of days
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4131
1285. StormJunkie
1:02 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Thanks 03, After I uploaded my pics to My Photos. It got put in the current weather photos. Next day Dr M used it. Never emailed anyone. Thanks again Dr M

The models on the FSU page should animate, but sometimes you have to scroll right or down to find the play buttons.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16295
1284. FLHurricaneChaser
1:02 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Where are you guys noticing that it relocated north? By the way, TD6 is moving more towards the WNW and is moving faster than anticipated. Bad news for East Coast....
1283. Tazmanian
1:01 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Pipsneyy yes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1282. PBG00
1:01 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Thanks Doc!
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1281. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
1:00 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
I posted a new blog with the latest QuikSCAT pass. These passes are generally available twice per day for the Atlantic, at roughly 8:30am and 8:3pm EDT.

Jeff Masters
1280. hurricane79
1:00 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
That is an interesting new blob of convection there. Good proof to any doubters about the storm being dead
1279. PBG00
1:00 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
North??I though we were talking a more southerly location...
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1278. hurricane79
12:58 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Remember that if my forecast for the first 48 hours hold to fruition, then all models will have to re-initialize the position. We will not know the answer to that until tomorrow
1277. Pipsneyy
12:58 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
so it relocated more north then? cause thats where i see the t-storm spin..
1276. sporteguy03
12:57 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
StormJunkie,
How did Dr.Masters get your Ernesto pic? Did you ask him to post it in his blog or dide he find it?? It was a good pic, just wondering..
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5270
1275. Tazmanian
12:56 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Link


hit my link it is a loops now see the big t-storms from TD 6???? and see the spin it has???? thats is TD 6
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1274. hurricane79
12:56 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
The GFS is the only model that runs far enough out in time to tell us any idea of when the ridge will weaken. But, with any tropical system, the GFS changes way too much between each 6 hour run especially when the tropical system is over 6 days (144H) out.
1273. Rick54
12:55 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
I just went back and looked at the 18z GFDL again and the High is looking pretty persistant. It is close to being as strong in the last frame as it is over the next day or so... only more elongated. 79's forcast track looks really plausable.
1272. sporteguy03
12:55 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
For all we know maybe all the waves will neautralize each other and nothing forms...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5270
1271. Pipsneyy
12:55 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
the t-storms to the ne or sw?
1270. Cumulofractus
12:55 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Are the models on the FSU site supposed to animate. I can't get them to do it.
1269. StormJunkie
12:54 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Skye, that 18z GFS does not look good....

Easily navigate the many great imagery, model, and preparedness sites on the web from one page. Quick Links
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16295
1268. Tazmanian
12:54 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
well look at all the t-storms and look at the spin it has with the t-storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1267. Pipsneyy
12:53 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Whens the ridge going to leave?
1266. Pipsneyy
12:52 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Taz, where do you think it relocated? Point it out please.
1265. hurricane79
12:51 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Pipsneyy, it all depends on how long that strong ridge stays North of the cyclone
1264. WeatherfanPR
12:51 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
At this moment everything looks very very very disorganized to me. The shear is very very very strong. Look at that monster sinking south in the center of the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1581
1263. Tazmanian
12:49 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Link


i think TD 6 did relocate look at the new T-storms arond it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1262. Gatorx
12:49 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
It looks like it has gobbled the former 98, but since TD6 has not moved very far - the small wave behind it looks like it is catching up.. it does not look impressive - however if it merged with TD6 it would be interesting.
1261. Skyepony (Mod)
12:48 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
The 18Z gfs is out. It wants to set up the sept huritrain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37803
1260. Rick54
12:47 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 12:44 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
ah now we are talking land fall now and i been trying to say all day to day

As 79 said it is too early to tell. All you can look at is the trends. Is the high building stronger or weaker? That sort of thing. I do agree that any Southerly movement would increase the odds BUT that doesn't mean landfall.
1259. hurricane79
12:46 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
I am still curios to see if my forecast pans out. Is is very possible from experience.
1258. nash28
12:45 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Hurricane79 is right. The COC will continue to jump around in this shear and will probably relocate SW of the current position from the models.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1257. Pipsneyy
12:45 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
79, so whats the chances of the center relocating that far south? and that would be bad for south east U.S. right?
1256. Tazmanian
12:44 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
ah now we are talking land fall now and i been trying to say all day to day
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1255. Rick54
12:44 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Posted By: hurricane79 at 12:40 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
Rick54, The GFDL sets the center of the storm too far North in 36 hours. The idea of their track is correct, but too far North and East in the first 36 hours.

Your assumption then is the High will be less effected than the models indicate?
1254. hurricane79
12:43 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Rick54 an increased probability, yes, but still too early to decide on.
1253. Fl30258713
12:43 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
chat rooms are ok for one topic, too many things to consider with tropical info to keep up with the chat room.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1252. Pipsneyy
12:43 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
To add to that 79, if the ridge stays strong, it would bring it right into Florida.
1251. hurricane79
12:43 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Pipsneyy, that link was to my discussion regarding the low level center turning West sooner than expected due to the shallow state of the storm, in addition, the convection to the SW will allow the center to try to relocate there as well. Click on the link for more detail
1250. Rick54
12:42 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Posted By: hurricane79 at 12:38 AM GMT on September 05, 2006.
The new GFDL consolidates the Northern half of the system in 24 hours, I believe the Southern half will win the battle as of now. If that happens, the GFDL will have to shift South by about 4 degrees

I assume that you mean at the end of the model run? That would put it somewhere around 21 degrees or so. If that comes to pass then you are talking an increasing probability of a SE US landfall?
1249. hurricane79
12:40 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Rick54, The GFDL sets the center of the storm too far North in 36 hours. The idea of their track is correct, but too far North and East in the first 36 hours
1248. Pipsneyy
12:40 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
79, what do you mean?
1247. JensenBeach
12:39 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Looks better but we still have to let things evolve.
Hurricane23 - I agree but that is a hopeful sign. I don't want to wish this storm on anyone but us in Florida have a enough for a while.
Member Since: December 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1246. Gatorx
12:39 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
hurricane23 -

I like what I see on the track...good evening everyone..
1245. usmcweathr
12:38 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Could be another hugo for the Carolinas
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
1244. hurricane79
12:38 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
The new GFDL consolidates the Northern half of the system in 24 hours, I believe the Southern half will win the battle as of now. If that happens, the GFDL will have to shift South by about 4 degrees
1243. usmcweathr
12:37 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
It should be interesting if it does make a run for the Southeast coast. The low shear that is forecasted and the very warm waters lie that ahead of it definately very supportive.


SST
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
1242. Rick54
12:36 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Between 79's track which is born out by the the 18z GFDL and what I see of that high it looks like if the present trends continue a US landfall cannot be ruled out. While the storm is pushing up into the ridge the pressures to the North might be enough to keep it from curving to far North before it makes a landfall.

Once again, its too early to really tell but....
1241. hurricane79
12:36 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
pipsneyy, agreed Link
1239. nash28
12:32 AM GMT on September 05, 2006
Sorry guys. Not just east of the coast. Still pretty far off the coast.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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