Ernesto storms ashore; John bears down on Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:15 PM GMT on September 01, 2006

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Tropical Storm Ernesto slammed ashore at 11:30pm EDT last night near Cape Fear (Wilmington) North Carolina. Just prior to landfall, the Hurricane Hunters observed a partial eyewall with 70 mph surface winds, but Ernesto never made it to hurricane strength. Ernesto has brought heavy rain to North Carolina--up to a foot in some areas--and an extensive area of 6-8 inches (Figure 1). Three tornadoes were reported in North Carolina yesterday. One of them damaged the roof of a home near Morehead City. Up to 1500 families needed to be evacuated from low-lying areas in the state due to river flooding. However, no major damage has been reported, and Ernesto's storm surge was only 1-3 feet where it came ashore near Cape Fear. Cape Fear reported 70 mph wind gusts last night as the center crossed land (Figure 2). We've archived a nice 3-hour radar animation of the storm making landfall in North Carolina.

Ernesto will remain a tropical storm today, then make the transition to an extratropical storm on Saturday. Lots of people's Labor Day weekend plans are going to be spoiled by the copious rains that will spread up the East Coast and into the Great Lakes. However, large portions of North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, and Delaware are under drought conditions, so Ernesto's rains will be welcome for some.


Figure 1. Total precipitation from Ernesto estimated by the Morehead City radar before it failed.


Figure 2. Wind analysis of Ernesto at landfall in Cape Fear, NC at 12:30am EDT 9/1/06. Only a small area of 50 knot (58 mph) winds (green area) affected the coast.

Hurricane John
Hurricane John has re-intensified into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane, and is headed for a landfall on the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula about 3pm PDT today. John's appearance on satellite imagery this morning is impressive, with a well formed eye and good upper-level outflow on all sides. The storm should be able to maintain Category 3 intensity up until its landfall on the Baja. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are on their way to the storm now to provide last minute intensity measurements of the storm.

John is a threat to the U.S.
In a previous blog, I discussed in detail the historical record of the five Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that have affected the U.S. with tropical storm force winds. Three of the four main global forecast models now bring John or its remnants northward to San Diego by Labor Day. In particular, the reliable GFDL model has John as a 40-mph tropical storm Monday afternoon near the Mexico/California border. There is still the possibility that John will get forced westward, but residents all along the Baja Peninsula should be prepared for John to bring heavy rains and high winds their way. The exact strength of the storm during this trek will depend heavily on how close the eye passes to Baja today; a direct hit on the tip of Baja will severely disrupt the storm, but a sideswipe may leave the storm strong enough to bring hurricane and tropical storm conditions unusually far north along the Baja Peninsula. I give John a 10% chance of bringing sustained winds of tropical storm force to San Diego.

Super Typhoon Ioke
Super Typhoon Ioke continues to churn in the Central Pacific as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, and it expected to stay a Cat 4 or 5 for at least three more days. However, its amazingly long run as an intense typhoon appear numbered--its getting far enough north that a trough of low pressure should be able to grab it by Tuesday, weaken it, and pull it northwest towards Japan.

Some impressive satellite loops and 3-D images of Ioke passing Wake Island are available at the RTS Weather Station on Kwajelein Atoll.

African tropical waves
The tropical wave near 16N 54W is surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust, but has slowly been able to pump more moisture into its center each night over the past few days as thunderstorm development kicks up then dies away. By Sunday, the wave may have enough moisture to develop. It should be in the Lesser Antilles Islands at that time.

A tropical wave near 12N 38W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has changed little since yesterday. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days.

Next update
I'll have an update late this afternoon as Hurricane John approaches Baja.

Jeff Masters

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544. Chicklit
8:47 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Weather456: Thanks for the updates; care to venture a guess on what it all means?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
541. ihave27windows
8:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
I could go on and on with The Breakfast Club dialog, but, I'll spare ya.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
540. katrina2005
8:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Is this think about to go over water?



n
539. RL3AO
8:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
New Blog up
538. 1900hurricane
8:20 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
ATTENTION EVERYONE!!! IOKE IS FORMING A GIANT EYE!!!

LINK
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
536. 0741
8:18 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
is lb + 98l?
534. 1900hurricane
8:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Posted By: 0741 at 3:13 PM CDT on September 01, 2006.
were is lb that you all talking about???????


LB is in the center, I think.

It's so cute!

: )
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
533. bocadave
8:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
there she goes- back to licking bowls!
531. BrnGrl
8:15 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 8:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2006.
All this talk about deserts is making me thirsty.....



I totally read this as 'desserts' and thought we were back to baking cakes and licking bowls :)
530. ihave27windows
8:15 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Hello 1900
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
529. 1900hurricane
8:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
What? What happened here?

Link
Either That is a giant ERC, or something has happened to Ioke
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
528. BrnGrl
8:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
*you forgot lazy, ugly, and disrespectful*

They're all alarmists here, but Frank Billingsly has been quite full of himself lately b/c he's got Radar, the weather dog, AND he stopped reporting the dew point. Said most people don't understand it and don't care. This change in his weather cast was actually reported in the Chronicle...earth shattering stuff, ya'll.
527. 0741
8:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
were is lb that you all talking about???????
526. REEFKEEPA
8:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
The peak of the season is now. I am going with this prediction: 8 more named storms, 2 major hurricane, 4 more hurricanes.
525. Randrewl
8:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Once John moves inland he will do a kind of U-turn and head straight to the GOM!
Time for a beer here!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31564
524. 1900hurricane
8:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Afternoon Y'all
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
523. moonlightcowboy
8:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
QUESTION: Once John moves inland will it/remnants, etc... be moving to the east? And if it does, is there some timetable where it may effect LB or 98L? Is there such a scenario and what would likely happen?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
522. Cavin Rawlins
8:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Weather456’s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Two...Continue Tropics/Subtropics and Hurricane John.........
Friday, September 1, 2006.......…


A surface High is now station south of the Hudson Bay, in Canada.

An Upper Level Ridge is station over the Hudson Bay into Central Canada, while an Upper level trough, accompanied by an Upper Level Mid-Latitude Cyclone is moving out to sea over Nova Scotia. This low is connected to another Low East of Saint John, Quebec, by a surface trough.

The Upper Level High/Ridge that was centered over the Continental United States for some time now, no longer sits inland and is now centered east of Georgia in Atlantic Ocean. A broad Upper Level ridge extends into the Atlantic towards the vicinity of Bermuda and the rest of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean north of 35N.
Replacing the High is an Upper level polar trough, extending down from the Jet Stream over Canada, into the Midwest and down to the South-East United States. This trough will be responsible for steering Ernesto east and north. At the heart of the trough is an Upper Level Low spinning over Michigan. The trough has stretch further south into the Gulf of Mexico, brining some extremely dry air with it to the Louisiana/Texas/Mississippi Gulf Coast area.

A short-wave Upper Level Ridge now extends, from Montana, southern to Texas, ending over Central Mexico, where an new ULH has form.

The trough is a associated with a dying front moving SE, over North/South Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. The northern part of the Cold front is still cold in nature and it extends from East of North Carolina, northeastward to about a 300miles SE of Nova Scotia, Canada. There sits another mid-latitude low.

A surface High is now centered over the Central Texan Gulf Coast area.

Numerous strong scattered showers seen along Central Mexico, the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Cuba and Cayman islands, and central America into northern Colombia.

Hurricane John continues north up the Western Mexican coastline, toward the Baja California peninsula. John is packing winds of 115mph, with a MCP of 960mbars.

The powerful winds of Hurricane John produced heavy surf and downed trees near Acapulco. The hurricane produced a 10 foot storm surge in Acapulco, which flooded coastal roads. In addition, John caused heavy rainfall along the western coast of Mexico. The rainfall resulted in mudslides in the Costa Chica region of Guerrero, leaving around 70 communities isolated.
There have been no reports of fatalities at this point. (Source: Wikipedia)

A Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern Baja Peninsula, meaning Hurricane conditions are expected within the area in the next 24hrs.

San Jose Del Cabo
Pressure :1008mbars.
Winds: NW at 10knots.

By Weather456.….9:08AST…………
Updated…..16:08AST……..
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
521. ihave27windows
8:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
All this talk about deserts is making me thirsty.....
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
520. txjerky
8:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Hi everyone,

I have been lurking for a couple of months. Alot more interesting than myspace or the yahoo message boards, lol.

I had to speak up when I saw Dr. Neil Frank mentioned. I hardly ever watch local news so I have not seen him in ages....
519. bocadave
8:07 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
kinda partial to Megan Glaros and Elita Loresca down here in south florida
518. Randrewl
8:07 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
If you don't think it rains in the SW...read this. I used to have a place near Hurley, NM. Still have a cabin in the Gila. I cancelled the Sept bow hunt because of too much rain and flash flooding. Can't even get the horses in there.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 300 PM MDT

* AT 145 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.
AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 152 BETWEEN FORT BAYARD AND SAN LORENZO HAVE
RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST
HOUR...CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS SITUATION. IN ADDITION...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF HURLEY WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
ALONG PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 180 SOUTH OF BAYARD...INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF HURLEY.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31564
517. ihave27windows
8:06 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Neil Frank is a neo-maxi-zoom-dweebie.....or a mondo dismo, take your pick. I watch Frank Billingsley.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
516. WPBHurricane05
8:05 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
i see we now have 98L, its all leading up to the peak of hurricane season
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
515. Cavin Rawlins
8:05 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Weather456’s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Three...Rest of The Tropics.........
Friday, September 1, 2006.......…


An Upper Level Ridge extends pass Cuba into NW Caribbean Sea.

An Upper level Low moving WSW, North of the Hispaniola, will enhance showers over the Southern Bahamas, Greater Antilles (Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico) and some of the smaller islands. The rest of Islands South of Anguilla is dominated by sinking dry, stable air in association with Saharan Dust, moving into the Caribbean Sea.

Another ULL has formed and is now located at 30N, 43W, moving SW into the Tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave located along 53W, accompanied by 1011mabr low at 16N, 53W. Despite the wave being embedded in extremely dry air, numerous convection/showers are found along its axis. This wave will move into the Islands, later on Sunday bringing moisture and putting an end to some of the dry air presently over the Lesser Antilles.

Another tropical wave (98L) located along 36W, also has a 1009mbar low with it, and numerous strong convection found along its axis and the ITCZ. The wave is not embedded in as much dry air as the wave at 53W and is under low shear and divergence aloft provided by an Upper Level High in the central Atlantic.

98L, once had a closed circulation but winds of 5knots, now the wave has an open circulation and winds of 15-20knots.

As the wave progresses west, it will encounter some dry air and shear. The shear might not be a problem as the ULL north of Hispaniola, might be moving out of the picture by the time the wave moves in.

More buoy and ships data, as soon as they become available.

Both of theses waves have 0-10knots of shear to deal with, but massive amounts of dry air.

A powerful Extratropical Cyclone, will move into Europe (Great Britain Area) and the North Sea coastal countries, bringing gusty winds, heavy rains and high surf, as usual with these mid-latitude cyclones.

A Cold front extends from 50N, 5W, to near 37N, 23W. The front will move into Portugal, Spain and England later today.

A surface High is located near, 37N, 25W, while two Upper Level Highs dominate the tropical Atlantic from east of Morocco, Africa to 55W.

By Weather456.…….10:19AST……….
Updated………..15:56AST......
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
514. ihave27windows
8:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Thank you...guess my eyes are playing tricks on me.
Please continue talking about banging weather people....
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
513. BrnGrl
8:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
I wish TWC chicks weren't so cookie cutter. They all look and sound exactly the same while the guys have a little bit of latittude (no pun intended)...

...at least we still have Dr. Neil Frank here in Houston with his crazy -ss buzz cut. He's a nutty whack a doo if I ever saw one.

During Katrina, he was less concerned about predicting track than he was about telling everyone how he predicted it when he was head of the NHC...
512. bocadave
8:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
have fun tonight melly-and a great weekend
511. Utah2Miami
8:03 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Arizona couldn't handle the rain. I grew up in the desert. Its not the lack of vegetation but rather the low level ground saturation. We aren't used to that much water and so the ground just spews it back up. Its not good dark brown dirt like I have seen everywhere else in the country- its compacted dust and clay. We have to buy topsoil to even grow anything. If Arizona gets 3 inches if rain in 24 hours they are looking at flash flooding- let alone 10-15.
510. nash28
8:03 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Thanks Taz. I read my email first and thought "nah, can't be Invest yet...." Apparantly, I was wrong:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
509. Randrewl
8:02 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Nothing happening in the BOC or the GOM...maybe a FOS here and there. That's it!

Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31564
508. Tazmanian
8:02 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Posted By: nash28 at 12:59 PM PDT on September 01, 2006.
Are you kidding me? I said on my blog that 98L would be possible MAYBE tonight or sometime over the weekend.

I get home from work and we have 98L??


LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
507. nash28
8:01 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Well, there should be a Dr. Masters update on this in short order I assume.....

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
505. ihave27windows
8:00 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Well, congrats Nash.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
503. nash28
7:59 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Are you kidding me? I said on my blog that 98L would be possible MAYBE tonight or sometime over the weekend.

I get home from work and we have 98L??
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
502. ihave27windows
7:58 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
LOL Rand.

Rand, please do me a favor and look at the BOC on WV and tell me if you don't see a slight counter clockwise spin?
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
500. 0741
7:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
do anyone have sat pic of lb that you all talking about?
498. refill
7:53 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Any chance for 98l to enter the caribbean sea and affects the NE Caribbean?
497. ihave27windows
7:53 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Bye Bye swla
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
496. littlefish
7:53 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
IOKE!!!!!!!!!!! Is finally coming down to Earth. What a string of days that monster has had!
495. melly
7:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2006
Gotta get ready for the concert, Ok bocadave, I'll check it... Bye all

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.