Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ernesto gets its name

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

The Hurricane Hunters visited Tropical Depression Five this afternoon, and at 1:30pm EDT found a surface circulation center and maximum sustained surface winds of 40 mph, making this Tropical Storm Ernesto. Visible satellite images from this afternoon show a a sheared system, with the low level circulation center completely exposed. Upper level winds from the northwest are creating 10-20 knots of shear, which is keeping all the heavy thunderstorm activity confined to the southeast (downwind) side. However, this heavy thunderstorm activity is building towards the center, and the storm has some solid spiral bands forming. The storm is intensifying in the face of the shear. Radar from Aruba shows some of the outer spiral bands.

Figure 1. Current satellite image of Ernesto.

The models
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray a conflicting picture of what may happen. Three of the four major global models--UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS--dissipate or severely weaken the storm by Monday. The Canadian model, which has been the most aggressive in making Ernesto a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, now keeps the system a weak tropical storm all the way to landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. The European Center model has a similar forecast. Oddly, the large upper-level trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean is forecast by these models to move west away from Ernesto, and an upper level high pressure system to build on top of the storm. This situation should act to lower the shear and aid in intensification, and that it what the official NHC forecast is calling for. It is unusual for the models to forecast a favorable shear environment, yet dissipate a storm, and serves to show the limitations of these models in making hurricane intensity forecasts. I have very little confidence in any of the Ernesto intensity forecasts--including the official NHC forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. High wind shear could still destroy this storm on Sunday. Ernesto should slowly intensify through Saturday, but beyond that, I have no idea. It's best to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. All portions the U.S. coast from the Florida Keys to Brownsville, Texas are at risk from this storm.

Given the high degree of uncertainty in Ernesto's intensity, those of you traveling to or from Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Cancun should play "wait and see" as long as you can. At this point, it is likely that Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwest Haiti will get tropical storm conditions on Sunday. Jamaica's airports will probably close about 2am Sunday, and remain closed into late Sunday night. Ernesto probably does not have enough time to intensify to a hurricane before reaching Jamaica. Airports in the Cayman Islands will probably close by late morning on Sunday, and reopen Monday afternoon. Ernesto could be a Category 1 hurricane for the Caymans.

Hurricane Ioke
Hurricane Ioke in the Central Pacific has reached Category 5 status with 160 mph winds today. Ioke is the first hurricane in the Central Pacific since 2002. It's not a threat to any land areas, but is most impressive on satellite imagery. The 12Z GFDL has Ioke at 880mb in 5 days, the lowest forecast pressure I've seen from the GFDL model.

Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Category 5 Hurricane Ioke, 2030 GMT, 8/25/06. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Max Mayfield to step down
Max Mayfield announced today that he is stepping down as head of the National Hurricane Center at the end of the year, according to press reports from the Miami Herald and Florida Sun Sentinel. Mayfield, 57, admitted that the last two hurricane seasons wore him out. Ed Rappaport, the center's deputy director and a veteran forecaster may be next in line for the job, after Max steps down on January 3. Max will be missed--his expert guidance of NHC has no doubt saved many lives, and I will miss his calm and intelligent presence at the helm of NHC.

Next update
The next Hurricane Hunter mission into Ernesto is at 2am EDT Saturday morning. My next update will be Saturday morning between 9-11am, or earlier if there's something major to comment on. I don't have my model summary piece completed yet, but will do so as soon as I get it done.

New JeffMasters blog for dial-up users
There is new blog site for those of you suffering on slow dial-up connections, or for those of you who don't want to see the comments:

http://www.wund.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Jeff Masters

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2751. melly 3:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
fldude99.I have in the back of my mind about a volcano in Oregon.

2752. WPBHurricane05 3:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
NEW BLOG Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929

2754. fldude99 3:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
portland, OR..that's the place Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 560

2755. truecajun 3:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
thanks vortex, that is what I thought and happy birthday to whoever is in the Rita area, I lost your post and couldn't remember your name. I'm in the New Iberia/ Lafayette area, South Central LA. We havn't got hit since Andrew. then there was Lili that disappeared in the middle of the night. If she would have hit, things would have been pretty bad around here. Some say the faithful folks around here prayed her away. Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

2756. chasingernesto 3:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
Reason I say about the hotel rooms is because irregardless if the center of the cone is coming over you, the hotel rooms will be booked from evacuees, more so if you're in the center of the cone. Three things to consider with Ernesto: (in order of precedence) #1 Forward Acceleration - The slower the storm moves, the more likelihood of strengthening and a more easterly component in the GOM. #2 ULL Shear - Can be overcome by #1 or ULL dissipation. #3 Troughing / Ridging at higher latitude - Gives direction and location of landfall, but as well, hinders on #1. This is what makes stormchasing fun, yet stressful!

2757. RobertForsman 3:31 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
IOKE bounced off the International Date Line? That's just too funny

2759. hookedontropics 3:45 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
chocolate aquarium Nagin better get the buses started... If this were to hit anywhere, I hope it is weakening. If it does make landfall as a tropical system, I would think the best place for our economy would be NO, then would stop dumping fed dollars into a sinking ship... Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127

2760. chasingernesto 3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
One is for certain if Ernesto does become a system to be reckoned with in the GOM, gas prices will skyrocket........again.....and don't even get me started on that Iranian dips**t of a President. Another factor in gas prices.

2761. stormybil 5:42 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
hi all does anyone think once earnie passes over the tip of cuba . that it might turn to the north thanks good luck evryone in gom

2762. IleenCan 6:10 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
So I'm from South Florida and I know about the unpredictability of hurricanes. BUT...I planned my first vacation in three years on a budget Carnival cruise whose path happens to be precisely the path of Ernesto (leave Miami on Mon., Key West, Tues, Cancun, Wed.) I'm trying to tell myself it is not a conspiracy. Can any of you experts guess where Carnival might take me instead? Thanks for your wisdom

2763. IleenCan 6:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2006
You can see my cruise route at this link Link

2764. flhurricanesurvivor 1:55 AM GMT on August 27, 2006
hello Milton and Pensacola...Ft Walton here. Have you noticed that Ernesto is all the talk around town? It is here. The memories of Ivan and Dennis are still to vivid to be looking at another CAT 3. Still too many blue roofs! Member Since: September 21, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 142

2765. Patrap 4:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
..sess the new orleans non-humor..and remembers His Cousin ..Patricia.A retired PHD in Nursing..Lost to Katrinas wrath,a Ne w Orleanian..Killed in katrina..in Bay St.Louis,Miss..Found..Sept 4th.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111577

2766. Patrap 4:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
.Ernie has done what he set out to accomphish in last nights convective round.He was able to sustain the concevection..and consolidate the overall column..and start his Engine..Now.How well can the hurricane navigate? The Mona passage and the futre forecast track..depends on how well he does..in the next 24... Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111577

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