Max Mayfield to retire as head of NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

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Max Mayfield announced today that he is stepping down as head of the National Hurricane Center at the end of the year, acccording to press reports from the Miami Herald and Florida Sun Sentinel. Mayfield, 57, admitted that the last two hurricane seasons wore him out. Ed Rappaport, the center's deputy director and a veteran forecaster may be next in line for the job, after Max steps down on January 3. Max's expert guidance of NHC has no doubt saved many lives, and I will miss his calm and intelligent presence at the helm of NHC.


Max Mayfield at the 2006 American Meteorological Society meeting, extolling what he wants engraved on his tombstone: "Don't look at the center track forecast line! Look at the cone of possible center locations."

I'll have an update on TD 5 between 4pm and 5pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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671. brazocane
9:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
why do people think hurricanes dont hit texas this late... Fronts will not begin to push through for a few more weeks... look at the climatology
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
670. nash28
9:26 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Noles- I start FSU in the spring of next year.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
669. nolesjeff
9:26 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
I found out about WU because local paper said Steve Gregory from WU had predicted SWFLA landfall
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
668. SWLAStormFanatic
9:26 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
New Blog Up
667. Trouper415
9:26 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
1900Hurricane,

That is sure insane to me. Its almost a massive Cat 5. And the pressure is supposed to drop another 30-35 MB?????

Supposed to be 880 MB at the end of the forcast period for that run?

Amazing
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
666. fldude99
9:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
can the low in the western gulf affect it when it crosses into the gulf?
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
665. STORMTOP
9:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
yes cosmis just like last year impossible it was such a huge swing what 600 miles well guess what i was right and this is going to be the same thing a huge shift to the nnw over s fla and up the east coast.....StormTop
664. nolesjeff
9:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Right on Nash, I rode out Charlie because it was to hit Tampa
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
663. weathermanwannabe
9:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Thats cool Nash...I just know that I wanted them to get personally prepared for this over the weekend because as State employees, we usually don't get "off" until the last minute (usually about one day before a landfall) and if the forecast track/time is correct, a lot of working people are going to be scrambling from work at the last minute next week
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826
662. nash28
9:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Watch what you say Coffeecrusader. We are nowhere near out of this by any stretch of the imagination.

If the High currently parked in the NE Gulf slides to the east and weakens at a quicker rate, coupled by a very probable slow down from Ernesto, this will cause the storm to follow the weakness which could very well put W. Central FL in the bullseye. I am not trying to scare you, but I am trying to get the complacency out of you. This is a VERY REAL possibility.

Just look at Charley from '04. Damn near same position as of now and was heading WNW as well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
660. fldude99
9:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
stormtop-what makes you think it will go up the east side of FL? just a hunch?
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
659. reeldrlaura
9:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
AH! the shooters are done jellin
I'm puttin em in the car and drivin like a felon
to the nearest........
I'm not tellin!

Catch you all later.......Thanks.....for EVERYTHING y'all. Now keep yer heads down, there's debris out there!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
658. nolesjeff
9:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Cosmic, come on. ST comes on here and gives opinion without absolutes and you want to start something?
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
657. WeatherfanPR
9:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
rainbands moving nw rapidly affecting Puerto Rico with showers and gusty winds.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
656. musicallydeclined
9:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
New blog is up.^
655. Tannim
9:20 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
I would go to a WUBA meeting in a heartbeat. Just look for me in the nonforecaster/lurker corner.
654. 1900hurricane
9:20 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Posted By: Corpusman at 9:09 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Hey all...new here. Thanks for all of the knowledge....but wxwatcher....Carla hit Texas in early September......:-)


Welcome Corpusman!!! Also another hurricane that hit Texas in September is the 1900hurricane.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
652. reeldrlaura
9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Music....I got it.....you got mail too!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
651. PBG00
9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
I don't see how it could hit sfla..That is such a huge shift..what could cause that and why is NO ONE else on to it../9Just want to know if it is a real possibility,(Here its like a sigh of relief this thing isn't going to be our problem)
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
650. nash28
9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Hey Weatherwannabe. That's interesting becaause my employer has had me rewrite the Team Member Hurricane Handbook and wants me to put out official emails if a storm is threatening Tampa Bay.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
649. reeldrlaura
9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Posted By: kmanislander at 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
hey Nash

I like your idea about all the bloggers getting together. What should we call ourselves ??
maybe $5 to the person who comes up with the most original name
LMAO
Report As: Obscene | Spam | Copyright
Posted By: nash28 at 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Think about it guys. With a little planinng and time, we can pull that together.


GOOD idea! How about the Weather-or NOT's? :)
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
648. WhereIsTheStorm
9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
GS - When WILMA came through from West to East across S FL, the eye went over West Palm Beach, there was a lot of damage south of the storm and most of it was caused by tornados. I have a report from someone on South Beach that did not evac as they should have from the 15th floor, that a roof from a lower building had actually came flying straight up and the tractor trailers across the street were blown over. The south side of WILMA was just nasty. The last report I had gotten from the TV before the power went off was that several tornados would develop along the county line between Miami and Broward. I guess you would call this a multiple vortex situation.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 443
647. kmanislander
9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
shots with gulf
hmmmmm

need to unwind him a bit first lol
definitely gone now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15761
646. stormlovr
9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Good Afternoon All .... Well, I'm a newby to the blog and I'll tell you ... I think ya'll are doing a great job keeping people up to date. I just saw they updated TD5 to Ernesto .... what is the general thoughts on when (if) it hits the Gulf of Mexico. I live in the Panhandle of Florida. Any thoughts?
645. Corpusman
9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Hey all...new here. Thanks for all of the knowledge....but wxwatcher....Carla hit Texas in early September......:-)
644. nolesjeff
9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Nash, when do you start FSU? We will be up for the Wake Forest game.
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
643. seminolesfan
9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Alright everyone, I'm gonna go enjoy some of my Friday night.

ttyl,
Justin
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
642. nash28
9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Hey, I got a name already guys....

"The Wishcasters"

Can you imagine hearing "Would the members of the Wishcaster party please report to the captain to give a BIG WU forecast for the next 5 days."

Classic!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
641. reeldrlaura
9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Taco....everyone......Thanks! I will ask for the things I need. So far y'all are just so gracious, I don't worry about me......I AM, however worried about Ernesto.....no matter what ST says. The multiple vortexes make it SO hard to predict anything.....surely hope it settles down a bit....even if it stays organized....it's those MV's that freak me out!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
640. WPBHurricane05
9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
OK IM OUT OF HERE< LIGHTNING LIKE CRAZY
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
639. musicallydeclined
9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
reeldrlaura- sent you an email. hope ya got it.
638. kmanislander
9:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
has to be after Nov 30th though
after all who would be left on land to watch out for these storms !!
Internet at sea is VERY expensive
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15761
636. franck
9:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Is lightning attracted to a window..no. Silica is not a conductor of electricity. But a couple million volts of high amperage electricity looks pretty hard elsewhere for a conductor.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
635. nolesjeff
9:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Coffee, dont say that. Thats what we said about SWFL until Charlie
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
634. WPBHurricane05
9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
i like the new ST..much nicer, and none of this written is stone crap
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
633. STORMTOP
9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
thats exactly what im thinking nash.......StormTop
632. nash28
9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
If for nothing else, I'd like to do shots with Gulf:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
631. IKE
9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:10 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
ike it will not hit anywhere in the gulf because it wont get in the gulf...it will hit the south fla coast on wednesday and go up the east coast thurs and friday....it could be a cat 1 to cat 3 so all you people be alert please.....StormTop


I disagree....I think it's headed toward Jamaica, Caymans...the western part of Cuba and then somewhere along the gulf states...east of Texas.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
630. nash28
9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Think about it guys. With a little planinng and time, we can pull that together.

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
629. kmanislander
9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
hey Nash

I like your idea about all the bloggers getting together. What should we call ourselves ??
maybe $5 to the person who comes up with the most original name
LMAO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15761
628. weathermanwannabe
9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
I sent this out to the employees I am responsible for this afternoon around 1:00 PM: Tell your people, in the Gulf, to take advantage of this weekend to stock up if they need to..............


I am letting you know, pursuant to my "unofficial" status as the CWLS weatherman, that there is a concern that a rather large tropical depression, soon to the tropical storm Ernesto, is south of Puerto Rico at this time and forecast to enter the Gulf as a Hurricane late next week (see link).

Given the fact that crunch time, if storm threatens the Big Bend area (there are to many variables in play to determine possible landfall at this time but I feel that this may end up being a major hurricane strike somewhere in the Gulf region), that any warnings, etc, would begin to go up towards the end of next week (while we may still be working), I would urge all of you to think about buying any needed hurricane supples (water/food/wood, etc,) this weekend as if the Big Bend/Panhandle is threatened, stores may get very hectic at the end of the week/next weekend, and supplies short, if you wait it out until the last minute.

Please know (my legal disclaimer) that this is not meant to worry anyone at this point, but, as Hurricane season is just really starting up, well all need to have some supplies in stock anyway for the next one if this storm does not materialize as a Big Bend event.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826
626. southbeachdude
9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
ST....with the new shift to the ene of the center the new model runs tonight might be closer to South FL. I am not taking it lightly here...
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 696
625. coffeecrusader
9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Based on the forecast track we're out of the woods here in Tampa. I should have known as much as Tampa NEVER gets hurricanes.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
624. 147257
9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

should have been a tropical storm at 2 pm advisory :O
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
623. musicallydeclined
9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Patrap- which building... the old or new middendorfs building. i perfered the old builing. oops are both still there?
622. 1900hurricane
9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006
Does anyone else think this is insane???

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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