New African wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 AM GMT on August 21, 2006

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Well, our quiet days in the Atlantic didn't last very long, as it's time to talk about a new threat area. A very vigorous tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa today, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. The waters under the wave are 27-28 C, which is .5-1.5 degrees C above the 26.5 C threshold for tropical cyclone formation--not great, but good enough. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the wave's north, and this will likely be the major inhibiting factor for this wave.

Both the GFS and NOGAPS models develop the wave into a tropical storm; the UKMET does not. The GFS predicts the storm will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the new African tropical wave.

I'll have much more on this system Monday, plus a look at the rest of the tropics.

Jeff Masters

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517. HCW
11:12 AM GMT on August 26, 2006
Don't look if your in LA to AL


Link

Hardcoreweather.com
Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
516. reeldrlaura
2:06 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
I'm off to make hay while the sun shines

FISH STORM is my mantra!!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
515. reeldrlaura
1:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Hey Pat......rain sounds good.....
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
514. Cavin Rawlins
1:47 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
new blog up
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
513. Cavin Rawlins
1:43 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
96L Estimated Intensity at 9:00pmEDT

Curved Band Pattern
Little/None - 0.00

Shear Pattern
None - 0.00

CDO
-CDO Central Feature

0.5 degrees latitude- DT 1.33

-CDO Banding Features

Not much -DT 0.12

Further Considerations (environmental factors)
The cyclone moving into the southwest quadrant of the Upper-Level Anticyclone.
The cyclone moving over warm SSTs.

96L T Number is 1.33+0.12=1.45

1.45 is 29.9mph, 1008mbar MCP/Strong Tropical Disturbance

96L is also a Standard Developer
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
512. Patrap
1:43 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
..G Morning reeldrlaura...Port Sulphur getting T-storm right now....going to b rainy here looka Lika..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
511. AllyBama
1:42 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Good morning everyone!
dropping in briefly before work (ugh!) i would rather hang with ya'll today! I see that 96L is progressing quite nicely.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
510. ProgressivePulse
1:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 7N25W 9N34W 8N40W 12N55W
10N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT WAS NOT ANALYZED AS SUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF
SUPPORTING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR DATA.

My guess is they won't do much with 96L until that void is filled. Latest quickscat missed the area.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
509. kabraxis
1:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
I doubt they would call this a TS yet, its only happened a few times that i can remember- that they skipped TD and went to TS. The NHC just knows that even if a wave coming off the coast looks good, it most likely will not hold together. No waves yet have looked very impressive after being off the African coast for more than 2 days this year. Maybe this wave will change all that though.
508. MahFL
1:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
The NHC are proberbly drinking coffee and eating dounuts.....or is that the cops ? lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3300
507. Cavin Rawlins
1:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Ioke Intensity at 9:00amEDT

Curved Band Pattern/Cloud Pattern
> 0.4 Spiral - DT 1.5

Shear Pattern
None - 0.00

CDO
-CDO Central Feature

-1 degrees latitude- DT 2

-CDO Banding Features

Has Improved - DT 1

Further Considerations (environmental factors)
Eye, now evident on the Stortwave Imagery

Ioke T Number is 1.5+2+1=4.5

4.5 is 88.5mph, 979mbar MCP.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
506. Tazmanian
1:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
hey this look like a TS now what you all think
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114732
505. MahFL
1:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
multiply by 1.15. Also a closed low is needed.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3300
504. amazinwxman
1:34 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
thank you Mah, weather,hobe, and Taz. mmm if it's 25 knots why is it not TD #4 yet? to get mph don't you multiply # (25 kts.) by 1.5?
503. reeldrlaura
1:32 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Mornin Oreo....cheery, as usual!

Always ready to run.....SO far away! :)
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
500. StoryOfTheHurricane
1:29 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
anybody got a link to animated navy satellite imagery?
499. Oreodog
1:27 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
OK, I'll lead off: "And I ran, I ran so far away . . ." (hey, I didn't mention a flock of seagulls first!)
498. ricderr
1:27 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
good morning....gonna actually have to work today......lurking will be reward for each section done...but i di have a question....hopefully some will know...how far away does a system need to be to not be influenced by the ITCZ?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21428
497. mrpuertorico
1:27 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
hope mike naso has something to say today oh yeah iam at my desk now :(
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
496. TampaWeatherBuff
1:26 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
I don't think that ridge will weaken that much.

According to the models I feel compelled to ask: "Ridge? What ridge?" I see only a straight shot on the Polar Express...it seems a stretch to call it a "recurvature"...

Latest satellite images show that half the sand in Africa is covering most of the Atlantic. All thse so call "pulses" that keep making their way into the Atlantic basin have been largely a phenomenon of bulging eyeballs every time a cloud swirls or a flock of seagulls gathers...

One big ho-hum of a season so far... ;-)

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 188
495. StoryOfTheHurricane
1:25 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
how do you know that MahFL?
494. Oreodog
1:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
G' Morning Drlaura and Gulf: Here's to another quiet week -- especially this one!
493. StoryOfTheHurricane
1:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
lol Gulf, im retarded
492. TexasGurl
1:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
96L


Looking Good this morning!!!
491. MahFL
1:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
It's 25 Kts and 1008.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3300
489. Oreodog
1:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Rattlesnakestorm: That's a first!
488. kabraxis
1:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
I think that if we don't have a TD by the end of the day, we most likely will have one by tomorrow afternoon - if the wave can maintain its organization.
487. Cavin Rawlins
1:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
486. Tazmanian
1:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Link

do note that the navy site do take a little time in updateing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114732
484. amazinwxman
1:14 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
can someone please give me the address to the NRL site cuz someone just told me they're reporting 35kt winds and 1000mb pressure with 96L and I don't believe it.
480. Tazmanian
1:06 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
hey dont get your hops up yet for a fish storm but you need to keep a eye on 96L to see what it dos for the next day or 2 be for we call it a fish storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114732
479. nash28
1:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Not necessarily Gulf. I don't think that ridge will weaken that much.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
478. StoryOfTheHurricane
1:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
96L: 8AM EST Monday, Aug21
Position: 11N 21W: 0N 2W from 2AM
Movement: WNW 15mph
Pressure: 1009mb
Winds: n/a
Status: TD within 2 days. 90% chance
Path/Time: SW United States around Friday, September 1st
476. kmanislander
1:02 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Looks like the ATL is the place to watch today unless something gets cooking S of Cayman. I am off to work now but will check in later

Have a good one

kman
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
475. kmanislander
12:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
even there the pressure is rising
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
474. IKE
12:58 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
And that buoy has normal trade winds. All of the buoys in the Caribbean have normal trade winds. Pressures have risen from 24 hours ago.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
472. kmanislander
12:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Hi Noles

just checked it

23 knots
pressure 29.91
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
471. IKE
12:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Here's a link for buoy 42058...but that's SE of Jamaica...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
470. reeldrlaura
12:57 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Yes 456.....fish storm!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
469. StoryOfTheHurricane
12:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
here comes debby
468. Cavin Rawlins
12:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
I hope 96L is a fish storm.....Thats the best thing that can happen right now.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
467. reeldrlaura
12:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Mornin Gulf! Hope you had a pleasant weekend.

Hoping for a quiet week so I can have a rummage sale (indoors) this weekend and get all my "stuff" back in storage while I search, once again for housing.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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