Another quiet weekend in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on August 20, 2006

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It's another quiet day in the tropical Atlantic. The persistent area of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast moved ashore this morning in Georgia. An area of heavy thunderstorms south of Jamaica is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. Wind shear is high here, 20-30 knots, and development is not expected. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the area of strong thunderstorms between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Island, is moderately active today, but no real threat areas stand out within it. The GFS and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a tropical storm will develop within the ITCZ by late in the week. However, any development here will have to contend with a large area of dry air and African dust that covers the entire eastern tropical Atlantic, north of the ITCZ.

Wind shear across most of the tropical Atlantic is forecast to drop to very low levels beginning Wednesday, and I expect we'll have at least one tropical storm developing by the end of the week.

Until then, enjoy these quiet days!
Jeff Masters

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966. groundman
1:28 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
Hi Taz and all,
What is the website for new invests???
I've got http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
off of the picture but it says dns error?? I googled it but when I click on link I get the same??
And I'm really sorry I'm so ignorant but what is an invest actually, something suspicious that they intend to keep investigating??
hep hep
Terry
965. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:24 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
LOL, Michael is too quick.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
964. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:23 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
Posted By: Jebekarue at 00:20 AM UTC on August 22, 2006.
==========================
is the one in the caribbean the 96L?
=========================

nope invest is off of Africa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
963. Patrap
1:23 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..Happy B-day Robert Plant.."bringing it on Home"...for 58 rockin years...But Patrap cries now when he hears.."When the Levee Breaks"...on LZ 4...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
962. Jebekarue
1:23 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
ty michael
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
960. ProgressivePulse
1:21 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
I should have said until it develops into a named storm! Misread #4
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5399
959. Jebekarue
1:20 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
is the one in the caribbean the 96L?
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
956. ProgressivePulse
1:19 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
Till it makes #4 Derecho, #1 #2 #3 are invalid.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5399
955. derecho1
1:19 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
come on, go out on a limb....that is what this blog is for....you have enough info right now, before it is even developed....
954. Patrap
1:18 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..wait,,I should stay and play Blog Jeoparday!..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
952. derecho1
1:16 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
jp, what is your prediction for this wave, it is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay early, but out of these four, which one, right now, do you think is MOST likely?

1)Gulf
2)East Coast
3)Fish
4)does not develop into a named storm
951. Patrap
1:16 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..thats the guy who did the series episode with Terri Garr..and the Saturn 5 footage
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
950. Patrap
1:14 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..ps..Got wicked drunk with Gary 7 in Anaheimn..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
948. Patrap
1:13 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..9pm..cst Dude..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
947. Tazmanian
1:13 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
but thing are now be comeing right for some in to pop up so we need to watch this 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
945. Patrap
1:11 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
.out to watch colts ..and to prepare for Shatners roast on Comedy Central....he sits in his old Chair from the Bridge..Jason Alexander the roast host....later yall...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
943. Tazmanian
1:09 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
hey this could pull a 94L lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
942. Patrap
1:09 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..you Betcha Jp..u correcto...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
940. ProgressivePulse
1:08 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
(Colt's Fan) Appear to be lacking D this year
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5399
938. weatherguy03
1:07 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
#3. And it cant be a fact yet!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
935. derecho1
1:05 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
2006, you are the expert here, use your expertise and common sence on this wave
934. Patrap
1:05 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..65 also was rare 5 storm..3 Hurricane year..2 ouuta 3 Hurricanes ..fish wrestlers..but Betsy flooded New Orleans in 4 hrs..Chalmette..Lower 9th.Remembers Johnson on St Claude Ave..2 days after storm with Flashlight a Grammar school..He said.."Im am your President ..I am here to help".now that was classy...His help pushed the Congress to fund the Cat 3 levees that we have now..But the corps design & Maintainece ..faile terribl..as we all witnessed...Funny how things come full circle...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
930. derecho1
1:00 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
number 3 for this invest
929. Jebekarue
1:00 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
which one is 96L?
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
928. Patrap
12:58 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
,,Betsy in 65 was forecasted out to sea ..did a loop under influence of the High..crossed thru the Z Lower florida straits..hit New Orleans..as cat 3
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
927. WPBHurricane05
12:58 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
3 situations:

1. Gulf (hope not)
2. Mid Atlantic Coast
3. Out To Sea
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
926. WPBHurricane05
12:57 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
danielleLink
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
925. Cavin Rawlins
12:57 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
96L Estimated Intensity at 8:00pmEDT

Curved Band Pattern
Little/None - 0.00

Shear Pattern
None - 0.00

CDO
-CDO Central Feature

0.5 degrees latitude- DT 1.2

-CDO Banding Features

Not much -DT 0.12

Further Considerations (environmental factors)
None for now.

96L T Number is 1.2+0.12=1.32

1.32 is 29.9mph, 1008mbar MCP/Strong Tropical Disturbance
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
924. derecho1
12:56 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
just like Dr Masters said in a previous bog, the setup has storms curving, what was the year when all the storms approaching east coash hit the troughiness and went out to sea...that was the year when there were 5 systems out there, all of them curved out due to the troughiness.....that is a good thing! one front after another coming off, east coast seems safe.
923. Patrap
12:56 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
..heard a story about a guy who bought a Barometer in Queens the day of the Great Express Hurricane..He lived on Long Island ...he arrived home ..saw the Barometer that read HUrricane ..so he ..being a miserly type..thought it to be defective.By the time he returned to Queens the sky had darkened and the storm struck..His Home was almost completely destroyed...Irony wins.........
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
922. WPBHurricane05
12:56 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
Ivan
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
920. WPBHurricane05
12:53 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
that was from wikipedia
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
919. ProgressivePulse
12:53 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
Your welcome Pat, easy to see the big picture.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5399
918. WPBHurricane05
12:52 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
The storm formed near the coast of Africa in September

The hurricane was forecast by the U.S. National Weather Service to curve out into the Atlantic Ocean but instead continued almost due north. It made landfall in Suffolk County on Long Island, New York on September 21, 1938 as a strong Category 3 hurricane
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
917. WPBHurricane05
12:51 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
916. refill
12:50 AM GMT on August 21, 2006
I think we are seeing an activity explosion in tha Atlantic...is the begining of the season peak..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.