Jacksonville low keeps on spinning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2006

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The persistent low pressure system about 50 miles east of Jacksonville Florida continues to kick up heavy thunderstorms and high winds over the waters off the Florida coast. Wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream is still a very hefty 40-50 knots, and is expected to remain over 40 knots through Sunday, so development of this system into a tropical depression is not expected. However, radar animations out of Jacksonville, FL show a healthy circulation and some strong thunderstorms on the east and south sides. Wind speeds at a buoy 45 miles east-northeast of St. Augustine have been about 25 mph gusting to 30 mph this morning. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:06am EDT this morning showed some wind gusts as high as 45 mph in some of the thunderstorms. The low could affect Georgia and northern Florida today and Sunday much as a tropical depression would, bringing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds.


Figure 1. Current radar out of Jacksonville, FL.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands that the GFS model had been developing into a hurricane is now pretty ordinary looking. The GFS no longer develops this wave. A good general rule for model predictions of tropical storm formation:

1) If two or more of the reliable models (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET) are forecasting develoment, watch out.

2) If none of the reliable models are forecasting development, watch out. The models miss most tropical storm development.

3) If just one of the reliable models is forecasting development, you can probably discount it.

That being said, we have a case where two reliable models--the GFS and NOGAPS--are forecasting that the large tropical wave that will move off Africa Sunday will develop into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. However, the wave will have to contend with a large cloud of Saharan dust which has just emerged from the coast of Africa.

Wind shear remains high over the Caribbean today, but the GFS is forecasting that this will drop significantly by Wednesday, and remain very low for the ten days following. I expect at least one tropical storm will form in the Atlantic during the next seven days. One candidate might be a weak tropical wave currently in the mid-Atlantic near 11N 40W.

Jeff Masters

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1358. WPBHurricane05
3:20 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
new blog
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1357. seafarer459
3:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Thank You KS4EC..

It just seemed plausable,that a systen sitting over a body of warm water,could draw energy from that water...
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1356. WPBHurricane05
3:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
let me edit:
1. TWO must have been hard for the NHC to type

2. Hurricane Hector now a strong TS
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1355. WPBHurricane05
3:16 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
that must have been hard for the NHC to type,

Hector downgraded to a TS
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1354. IADCW
3:15 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Hi guys - Sir Lurks-A-Lot here. If you use the drop down boxes on the forcast models and use different settings, you get different results.(DUH)Is one setting more acurate than another? or do any of you weather wiz kids know? I'll go back to lurking now.
1353. WPBHurricane05
3:15 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
swlaaggie i completly lost my porch in a weak cat. 2, although my neighbor went through 2 3's and 1 cat 2, and looks brand new, i think he has the armor screen
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1352. IKE
3:15 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 20, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin




The NHC mentions nothing. I don't get it..but their the pros.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1351. WhereIsTheStorm
3:15 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Good Morning All,

New Blog up.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 443
1350. kmanislander
3:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
I agree that the ULL now seems quite broad. I just ran a hi res WV loop and the ULL seems to be between the NW coast of Ja and the SE coast of Cuba. If so it would be moving off to the NE as compared to its position yesterday. This would open the door for development in the S Caribbean but I have seen big blow ups come and go. Any persistence in the convection for the next 12 to 24 hrs would not be a good sign
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1349. KS4EC
3:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
seafarer 459
I bnelieve so, look at Wilma as it passed over Lake Okeechobee. There was a dramatic increase on the west side. THat said, there where also several other factors that aided developement, like a cold front just to the north. But trust me the west side of that storm sam ALOT worse than the East side.

I know I was fine for the east side but lost half of our roof to the west side.


1348. StormJunkie
3:12 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
jp, shear over 93L is 20kts? where are you getting that?

And 20kts is still a little high.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1347. swlaaggie
3:12 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Good morning all.

Question to all of you in hurricane alley.

The east side of my home has a covered porch area with 8 large windows and vinyl siding which makes boarding difficult at best. This side of the house borders a pasture and is unprotected and got absolutely hammered during Rita. We are considering Armor Screen to protect this porch area in the future.

Does anyone use this system and do you have any thoughts regarding?

Sincere thanks for any replies.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
1346. WPBHurricane05
3:12 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
OMG i just felt a rain drop when i went out side S. East Fl. residents relief is on the way!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1344. StormJunkie
3:10 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Sounds good Doug, now look at the other models and see if you can find a consensus.

The GFS is very interesting late int he forecast periods with two storms very near each other. Not to confident with any of the genisis performance from any of the models though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1343. seafarer459
3:10 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Thanks SJ,
It was something I was wondering...
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1341. plywoodstatenative
3:09 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Realtime Gulf of Mexico
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1340. StormJunkie
3:08 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
If the shear was not so high 459. It could still cause some storms to fire, but the shear is so high it could not really strengthen any.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1339. littlefish
3:08 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Just remember, wind shear and dust. No worries, at least not immediate. Wind shear and dust- that's my forecast for today. Boring since we're 3 weeks into August.
1338. nash28
3:08 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Hey guys. Latest GFS run has a couple of storms in the Atlantic late in the period.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1337. PensacolaDoug
3:07 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
I looked at the 850 NOGAPS. It looks like it loses it then finds and developes it just below Pcola. Then it brings it onshore in the P'cola area. Am I reading it correctly?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
1336. WPBHurricane05
3:07 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
i fell like im in a hurricane, its cloudy and rainy all around except above me, its sunny, strong breeze, guess im in the eye
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1334. kmanislander
3:03 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
It is definitely weaker. Yesterday afternoon the WV loop showed hardly any moisture N of 15 but today is a different story

The ULL seems to be drifting off to the NE real slowly. I would guess its center is just off the W tip of Ja. whereas yesterday it was sitting almost on top of us S and W

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1332. seafarer459
3:02 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
A theoretical question to all here..

If a body of water,the size of one of the great lakes,was situated in the south..And a system like 93l squatted over this body of water..Could said system draw energy from the lake.And intensify???
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1331. SWLAStormFanatic
3:01 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
jp, what do you make of that?
1330. Cavin Rawlins
2:59 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:56 AM AST on August 20, 2006.
umm....I dont see the ULL that was in the caribbean in the WV loop


JP, its still there, but it has become broad, and ill-define. I Have a feeling its waning, or at least working down to low levels.....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1329. caymanguy
2:59 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
thanks Kman,

that ull the same one from yesterday?

looks weaker today.
1327. IKE
2:57 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 9:56 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
umm....I dont see the ULL that was in the caribbean in the WV loop


I don't either.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1326. kmanislander
2:56 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Ike,

Sorry about the link. Don't know what happened.
Its http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Hope this works

kman
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1324. StormJunkie
2:55 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Doug it looks like the Nogaps is the only one developing it right now, and it keeps it fairly week. FSU model site. Set the field to 850mb vorticity and then hit submit on the model you want to view. Use the forward button on the left.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1323. Cavin Rawlins
2:54 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Disturbed Weather in the Caribbean
The upper level low in the NW Caribbean Sea has become broad and ill-defined, seen on water vapor imagery.

Upper level Low moving into the North Atlantic. This was the low seen spinning NE of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday/Thursday.

There is appears to be an upper level anticyclone near the Colombian/Venezuelan coastal border, creating ridging in the upper levels, from Honduras, through the Caribbean Sea and the Lesser Antilles, and finally into the Atlantic.

Showers/thunderstorms has increase along this ridge, due to the two ULLs, but has become more concentrated to an area East of Nicaragua.

Showers and thunderstorms has increase this morning with an area East of Nicaragua. Quicksat pass overnight revealed some areas of 15-20knot winds, but no apparent circulation.

However, this morning visible imagery showed, showers concentrating around a center.

Wind Shear is still unfavorable, but has been slackening off gradually, since this time on Saturday.

Currently it appears the area is moving west to west north west, but that might change to NW.

Sea Surface Temps in the South Caribbean Sea are running around 80 degrees.

The closest buoy reading, I could find near the disturbed area was drifting buoy 42057;
located 16N/82W, just north-east of it. It measured a sea level pressure of 1011.9mbars, and winds of 15knots from the ENE.

The area will be watch for development.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1322. ajcamsmom
2:54 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Steve from Accuweather.com's video on the tropics for today said there is nothing forming anytime soon...or at least that is what I understood him to say...who knows...
1321. BrandonC
2:53 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
To follow up on my comment...According to Dr. M in the above area, he mentions that if none of the models develop it then watch out for it....
1320. kmanislander
2:53 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Hi Caymanguy

It just seems to be meandering around for a bit.
The ULL off the west coast of Jamaica will keep it down there for a while but if the ULL lifts out or weakens significantly I would expect a WNW to NW drift initially
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1318. StormJunkie
2:52 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Not yet Tampa, there is still a good bit of shear just to the N of it. You can always check the NRL Topical site to see if an invest has been issued.

You can find that link and a lot more on the StormJunkie.com Quick Links page.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1317. BrandonC
2:51 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Pensacola the last time I looked at the models about 3 hours ago none of them developed anything from down there at all. They keep developing 1 or 2 storms in the atlantic but nothing north of south america in the caribbean.
1316. IKE
2:51 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Posted By: nawlinsdude at 9:49 AM CDT on August 20, 2006.
when's dr.m usually update?- has to be soon


He usually updates by 9AM CDST...he's running late.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1315. kmanislander
2:50 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Ike

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1314. WPBHurricane05
2:50 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
ok thanks JP, do u know why they classified over land??
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1313. PensacolaDoug
2:49 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Are any of the models developing the carribean blob? If so, where do they take it?
Thanx in advance.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
1312. nawlinsdude
2:49 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
when's dr.m usually update?- has to be soon
1311. SWLAStormFanatic
2:49 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Tampa, I don't think so.
1309. caymanguy
2:48 PM GMT on August 20, 2006
Good morning Kmanislander;

does that blob (future 96L) show any direction?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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