"Not dead yet", says East Coast disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on August 18, 2006

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The persistent low pressure system 100 miles east-northeast of Jacksonville Florida refuses to die, despite my attempts to declare it dead last night. Wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream is now a very hefty 40-50 knots, but the system has retained its circulation and still has some heavy thunderstorm activity firing up on its south side. Wind speeds as noted in a QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:32am EDT this morning show that the strongest winds remain near 25 mph. This system is definitely an oddity--it refused to develop Wednesday when conditions appeared quite favorable with low wind shear, and now refuses to die under extremely hostile wind shear. The high shear is forecast to remain or increase today, and this system has little hope of gaining tropical depression status before it moves ashore into northern Florida and/or Georgia tonight. These areas can expect some spotty heavy rains from the storm.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave off of Africa
A strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa Thursday, near 7N 16W. The QuikSCAT pass from 3:17pm EDT yesterday revealed winds of up to 60 mph to the west of the center, but the thunderstorm activity has since quieted down. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT pass to evaluate the current winds. Visible satellite animations from this morning show good rotation, and this disturbance does have some potential for develoment a few days from now. SSTs are a bit cool at 27C (81F), but wind shear has declined from 20 knots last night to about 10 knots today. The past three days worth of GFS model runs have been developing this system into a hurricane that threatens the Lesser Antilles about seven days from now. None of the other models develop the system.

Jeff Masters

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1489. Patrap
6:19 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
...refer to Dutch solution for fixing the dike..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134797
1488. WPBHurricane05
2:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
its quite
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1487. WPBHurricane05
2:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
there was an article in the paper about the Lake Okeechobee dike, they said that there are crack's that could cause a break, the water would flood all the way to wellington, which is about 30 miles away
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1486. StormJunkie
1:54 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
See ya laura :) have a great day.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17009
1485. hurricane23
1:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Yep....he also said there's 40-50kts of shear coming over the top of 93L,in my book that means no devlopment.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
1484. vortextrance
1:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
This site is closest to real time you can get, but only on storm close to U.S. Its usually within 10-20 minutes of real time.
Link
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
1483. WPBHurricane05
1:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
TWC is about to talk about the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1482. IKE
1:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
NEW BLOG.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1481. StormJunkie
1:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
That explains it 23, I don't use that map very often. I don't usually use the hurricane sector. Wonder why the the scale is different on the hurricane sector from the GHCC?

Don't know SW, there is some shear down there, will have to see what happens towards the beginning of the week.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17009
1480. WPBHurricane05
1:51 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
thats what Dr. Steve Lyons said
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1479. guygee
1:51 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
I have been using two buoy obsevation stations to continue to judge the health of the LLC. I seems it has neither weakened nor strengthened much since it has reached the area roughly east of the FL-GA border:

Station 41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA (31.40 N 80.87 W)
5-Day Wind-Pressure Plot
5- Day Wind Direction Plot

Station 41012 - St. Augustine, FL 40NM ENE of St Augustine, FL (30.0 N 80.6 W)
5 Day Wind-Pressure Plot
5-Day Wind Direction Plot
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3316
1478. WPBHurricane05
1:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
dont worry it will be onshore in 24 hours
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1477. hurricane23
1:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Storm junkie try here just pick an area you want to look at and then zoom in.

SEE HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
1476. Patrap
1:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..go do yer thing reel..enjoy..stay safe..Im out to maka the omelette,,later
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134797
1474. reeldrlaura
1:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Ike, thel ric, pat, SJ.......all y'all. I WILL check back later. It's getting dark now and the wind is picking up.......I like to watch these things so I'll just say keep it spinnin!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
1473. WPBHurricane05
1:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Hurricane Hector
Close Up Of Hector
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1472. Patrap
1:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..Goes-12..best close to real-time ya gonna get..invaluble tool when systems threaten..in my book..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134797
1471. IKE
1:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
I think the Caribbean disturbance could be a problem for someone.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1470. C2News
1:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
wil it become a depression?
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1469. hurricane23
1:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Storm junkie try here just pick an area you want to look at and then zoom in.

SEE HERE

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
1468. guygee
1:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Gulfscotsman might need to add the "Mothra Corollary': "Once a convectively driven LLC is established, it is not truly dead until the LLC dissipates." We saw this with Chris as well.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3316
1467. IKE
1:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
The 06UTC NAM is back on board with the Caribbean disturbance and has it moving in a more NNW direction vs. WNW last night. The CMC latest run doesn't develop it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1466. reeldrlaura
1:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Ike - winds at Craig arpt show 3 mph now from NNW .....93 is slowly spin i n g , to the south of me, probably looking dicier around Beaches, St. Aug , etc.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
1465. WPBHurricane05
1:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
i say u are going to get rain if u live between Savannah, Ga and Vero Beach, FL
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1464. StormJunkie
1:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
23, where are you getting those IR images you are using? And why is ther so much white in the clouds. This is not the way these maps look when you use the GHCC site....What gives?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17009
1463. Patrap
1:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
23..iz this the beginning you believe of the system the NAM brings up from the se in around 65 hrs?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134797
1462. thelmores
1:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
well, i "guessed" jacksonville would be the landfall point for 93l..... i just didnt realize it would take 3-4 days to get there! LOL

93l just refuses to quit!!!



:)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3832
1461. Tazmanian
1:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
like huh 93L dos not give up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5096 Comments: 116620
1460. weatherguy03
1:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
No kidding SJ. I need an alternate plan. Looks like movies and craziness today. Oh well.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
1459. guygee
1:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
*Your lawn
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3316
1458. hurricane23
1:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Also the wave about to exit africa has a nice envelope it and will need to be watched as some models are calling for some development of this wave.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
1457. Patrap
1:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..has been thinking about posting starting early on the 29th about the time Katrina made landfall...I have my Journal notes from that morning ..and thought it might be Kinda interesting to show how the morning & day unfolded.I was On Bonnabel Blvd near the Lake..about 1 mile west of the 17th St. Canal breech.ID figured i would strt posting @ 0500cause it was about 0515 that the eyewall hit...then I would post every half-hour till round 2pm when the winds started to come round to SW & abate...any thoughts on this?..would kinda be a way for me to convey the feeling of the day..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134797
1456. guygee
1:31 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 1:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2006.
I am scared 93L is headed towards me..*shaking...

You might have to mow our lawn again soon, I undertand.

Guten Morgen!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3316
1455. IKE
1:31 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: C2News at 8:29 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
tropical storm tammy last year landed in mayport


Oops...you're right!

Sorry...senior moment!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1454. StormJunkie
1:31 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Morning 03, looks to be so, better board up....lol :)

Does not look like a great day to take those kids to the beach though...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17009
1453. hurricane23
1:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
93L is somwhat better organized....but conditions are unfavorable for any futher development ,this feature will likely be just be a rain event for north florida.

Ive also been looking down south into the caribbean and the convection north of Panama has increased the morning.i think this is in the begin stages of what the models were bringing into the gulf next week. Right now there is an ULL west of jamaica,which is causeing unfavorable conditions,the problem in my opinion is that the GFS model is calling for this ULL to slowly weaken in the next 24-48 hours.The GFS is also calling for huge upper-level anticycone to develope somewere in the eastern caribbean.the problem i see here is that the GFS model is saying that the anticylone will park itself in the NW caribbean,if this indeed occurs the U.S might be in some trouble as the doors will be open for a path towards the GOM.

Right now guys until I see the ULL weaken nothing will get going,but the convection is now there so it has to be watched.

Here is an IR pic of the area...






Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
1452. C2News
1:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
tropical storm tammy last year landed in mayport
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1451. weatherguy03
1:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Maybe I will finally see some rain here. I have had more rain with afternoon storms then I have had with a tropical system 60 miles off the coast..LOL Oh well, lets hope for some rain.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
1450. IKE
1:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: reeldrlaura at 8:26 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
If it keeps moving at the rate it currently is......it won't make it into the G
OM until next season! :)


Looks like it's moving a little faster...slightly south of west.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1449. weatherguy03
1:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
I am scared 93L is headed towards me..*shaking...
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
1448. IKE
1:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
A tropical system making landfall in JAX. Now that's rare.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1447. reeldrlaura
1:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
If it keeps moving at the rate it currently is......it won't make it into the G
OM until next season! :)
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
1446. IKE
1:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
93L is looking better each frame...convection increasing...landfall is imminent.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1445. Patrap
1:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..the only real factor about crossing Florida is that its relativly flat..and the amount of time it spends over land is also a factor...if it can keep some identity after the crossing..Id be a lil concerned.Till then ..its just a rainmaker
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134797
1444. reeldrlaura
1:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
C2 - Ft. Caroline
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
1443. reeldrlaura
1:23 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: C2News at 1:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2006.
hey everyone i am in jacksonville...what can i expect today?

ROFL.....what can I expect today?

Mornin C2 - expect anything, and nothing will surprise you!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
1442. SavannahStorm
1:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Check out the monster wave that the GFS develops over Africa at the end of the forecast period. A 1000mb wave before it leaves the coast?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 2391
1441. IKE
1:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Good morning.......

Caribbean wave is firing up some good convection @ 12N, 78W...interesting to see what it does.

Anyone have a wind shear map for the Caribbean thru Monday. The WU shear map shows favorable for the western Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1439. C2News
1:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
reeldrlaura....where do ya live? i live just west on intracoastal
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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