Wind shear destroys Carolina disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:25 AM GMT on August 18, 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

As expected, high wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream has destroyed the circulation of the disturbance off the coast of South Carolina. The remnants of this system will move ashore into northern Florida and/or Georgia on Friday, bringing some spotty heavy rains.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave off of Africa
A very strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa today, and is centered near 7N 16W. The QuikSCAT pass from 3:17pm EDT reaveals winds of up to 60 mph to the west of the center. The wave has a lot of rotation, but not a closed circulation. The past two days worth of GFS model runs have been developing this system into a hurricane that threatens the Lesser Antilles in about a week. None of the other models develop the system. SSTs are a bit cool at 27C (81F), and wind shear is a fairly high 20 knots, so let's see how this cool water and moderate shear affects the system overnight before talking about whether it represents a future threat.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

382. STORMTOP
8:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
WEATHER3 EVERYONE HAS A PROBLEM WITH YOU BECAUSE YOU DONT KNOW JACK SHIT....SO WHY DONT YOU COME DOWN OFF THAT PEDESTAL AND EAT SOME SHIT LIKE SJ DOES EVERYDAY...YOU WANT TO KNOW THE TRUTH YOPU ARE PATHETIC AND YOU HAVE THE MODELS TO WORK WITH...YOU NEED ANOTHER PROFESSION BECAUSE YOU ARE MISERABLE AS A WEATHERMAN LOL WHAT A JOKE.....
381. WKendallGuy
2:12 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
From lurking to noobing...

WSW Miami (Hammocks), real Structural Engineer, Andrew (and its lessers) vet.

Really enjoy the good and no-that-good comments and information. Hope to contribute at some point.

Have a great day everybody.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
380. whirlwind
2:11 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
morning,

here we go again with the GFS having 3 cyclones coming off africa again...Link
ok the FSU develops the large one also..
379. MahFL
2:07 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
From JAX NWS, "00Z
MODELS MOVE LOW SW ACROSS N FL THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GFS BEING
FASTER AND WETTER."
wetter the better as most of N florida is bone dry.
KDBI Index
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
378. StormJunkie
2:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Welcome BCUSA!

Morning Rand, 93 is still under a lot of shear, but I geuss if it stays off shore and continues to push south then it may still be something to watch....Not uptodate on all my info though after the long workday yesterday.

StormJunkie.com-Easily find imagery, forecast models, marine data, wind data, and preparedness info. Most of the links found here are to the many wonderful sites that our tax dollars pay for (governement, educational, and military) so make sure you get your moneys worth :)

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
377. guygee
2:03 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Posted By: fla1963 at 1:59 PM GMT on August 18, 2006.
Been watching the jax radar all morning, 93 is not moving?

fla1963 - Doesn't appear to be moving much to me either, maybe drifting WSW.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
376. VeroBeachNative
2:02 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
New Blog
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
375. reeldrlaura
2:02 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Welcome to the machine, Braz!

Fla1963, I'm seeing the same thing. Gulf, as usual I'm sure you're right about Dr. M writing of this "disturbance" a little too soon.

Caught a nice 16" Flounder under the bridge yesterday.....nice dinner for me! :)
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
374. Cavin Rawlins
2:02 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
New Blog UP
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
373. NCFran96
2:02 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Same here, been reading for some time and finally decided to chime in........Hello All!
372. MahFL
2:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
fla1963, Its moving WSW. I am just sw of JAX by the way.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
371. fla1963
1:59 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Been watching the jax radar all morning, 93 is not moving???
370. BrazoriaCountyUSA
1:58 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Thanks GS,

Have been watching ya'lls post for quite some time and appreciate the information I get on this blog.
Member Since: August 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
369. Cavin Rawlins
1:58 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
BrazoriaCountyUSA, Welcome
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
368. emagirl
1:57 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
on the disturbance near Panama i was readind a blog on another site and they say models show it entering the Gulf next week......what do you guys think
367. fla1963
1:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Yes. What is up with that?
364. Cavin Rawlins
1:53 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
mrpuertorico

The chances of it recurving are slim.

It is far south, and there is not a strong enough high to pull it north.

Most likely, will stay south and west.....

At this point anyone from the Northern Leeward islands to Grenada.

Still a long ways out......
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
363. nash28
1:53 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
93L is firing up some deep convection this morning.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
362. BrazoriaCountyUSA
1:52 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
This is my first time posting here, so
RADIO CHECK?
Member Since: August 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
361. reeldrlaura
1:52 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Morning everyone! Well, 93L just sitting there spinning! winds are 1mph, gusting to 3mph.....just spinning, spinning. Hmmmmm. What's up with that???
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
359. mrpuertorico
1:50 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
thanks 456 so bottom line who is in your mind do you think its going to effect first anychance this is going to ther n. ants or is it going to curve north the gfs had a storm approaching the antilles i wonder if its the wave its pointing out
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
358. Cavin Rawlins
1:48 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
The wave’s track will take it a trip of above 28C sea surface temperatures.

The wave’s track will take it a strip of above 28C sea surface temperatures.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
357. hurricane23
1:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Alright guys of to work...be back later have a wonderful day everyone.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
356. Cavin Rawlins
1:46 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
African Wave
A tropical wave that moved off Africa yesterday, appears to have develop a broad, mid-low level circulation (this was picked up very clearly on Mid-Low Level Winds and 850mb Streamline Winds), accompanied by moderate-strong convection. The tropical wave is located on the northern periphery of the ITCZ, at 8N, embedded in a very unstable upper air environment, that stretches into the central Atlantic towards another wave at 40W. The wave has an excellent inverted “V curvature with stronger divergence than convergence.

The wave persisted for 23-24hrs now, since it moved off.

It is over wind shear of 15-20knots and 27-28C sea surface temperatures.

The wave will be steered west to WNW by a weak surface High in the Eastern Atlantic

Future of the Wave if it develops:
Two Upper level highs will be present as the wave moves through the Central Atlantic. One near the Cape Verde Islands, the other in the Central Atlantic.

These Highs will create favorable environment, such as low wind shear, upper level divergence and low level convergence.

The wave will be embedded in very unstable environment, all the way to 50W, beyond that is uncertain.

The Upper level low NE of the Leeward Islands, will weakened and move north, thus creating a even a more favorable environment.

The wave’s track will take it a trip of above 28C sea surface temperatures.

Buoy Observation:
Two drifting buoys recorded some very low pressure as they pass close the wave yesterday.

Land-Base Station Observations
ROBERTS, Liberia (GLRB), a station near the wave pressure fell from 1012-1010mbar as the wave pass through.

Bottom Line
If the wave can persist another 24hrs, then environmental conditions will only become more favorable for a tropical depression to form, next week.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
355. mrpuertorico
1:42 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
there is an impresive amount of moisture off the african coast where the new wave is Link
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
354. vortextrance
1:41 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Agree 23
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
353. hurricane23
1:38 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Guys there is between 30-50 kt winds right now over 93L and they are increasing.no chance here in my opinion.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
351. hurricane23
1:34 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Randrewl i already posted that...But thanks.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
349. sandcrab39565
1:32 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Just has been an observation of mine over the years but those usually spell trouble for the islands.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
347. sandcrab39565
1:29 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Randrewl, Morning. Is it me or does our african blob seem to be high up in the convergence zone.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
346. hurricane23
1:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
emagirl from what iam seeing a broad low pressure area might try to form in south western caribbean sea sometime in the next few days,models like the GFS bring this feature into the GOM were then everyone has to watch.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
344. CaneJunkie
1:27 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
I thought ya'll might find this funny. So which one are YOU?


http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/
343. snotly
1:26 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
ema ... just some rival drug lords fighting over territory ... oh, ... do you mean the weather?
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
341. ricderr
1:25 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
i've seen that......and let me ask you...i'll see yellow and red on the radar....looks like it's dead over my house..and sprinkles....can you explain?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22373
340. plywoodstatenative
1:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Mornin all.

Randrewl, the only rain I have been getting seems to be in the evening.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
339. emagirl
1:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
can anyone give info on the disturbance currently near eastern Panama and the northwestern South American coast...
337. vortextrance
1:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
good morning all, it looks like 93L just won't die.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
336. ricderr
1:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
morning rand.......didn't it rain yesterday?....looked like rain on the radar early in the morning....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22373
335. snotly
1:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
93L looks like classic battle between shear and warm gulf stream waters.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
332. SWLAStormFanatic
1:11 PM GMT on August 18, 2006
Red, as soon as I hit "post" I knew I should have said "I assumed it to be Carla footage due to geographical proximity."

You're so right, it COULD have been Alicia or Carla. However, very doubtful on Alicia, the footage was very grainy and had that old look.

The lesson here is that we should seldom speak in absolutes.

Outta here for work.

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron