Hurricane Hunters don't find a depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2006

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An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system centered about 150 miles southeast of the North Carolina/South Carolina border this afternoon, but did not find winds strong enough to support calling it a tropical depression. Peak winds were only 25 mph at the surface, and winds of 30 mph are required before NHC will classify a system as a tropical depression. The storm does have a well-defined closed circulation, but satellite imagery and long range radar out of Wilmington, NC haven't shown much change in the system's organization today. With warm 84F (29C) waters underneath and wind shear of only 10 knots, I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm become a tropical depression or even a weak tropical storm by Thursday afternoon. However, the system has to act fast, since it will have a very hostile environment by Thursday night. A trough swinging off the East Coast today is expected to drag a filament of very strong jet stream winds southwards to Florida by Thursday night. These jet stream winds are forecast by both the GFS and NAM models to bring 100-150 knots of wind shear over the disturbance, which will easily tear it apart. Considering that wind shear over 20 knots is unfavorable for tropical storms, the 5pm NHC tropical weather outlook, "upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable for development on Thursday", is a little understated!

High pressure building in behind the trough of low pressure should force the system towards the west or southwest through Thursday night. South Carolina could see some heavy rains and gusty winds Thursday night into Friday from the storm, but a storm strong enough to cause significant damage would be a major surprise.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Wilmington, NC.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss. If you missed it, my discussion of the outlook for the remainder of August was posted in my previous blog.

Jeff Masters

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592. guygee
7:49 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
From Jeff Master's blog above:
A trough swinging off the East Coast today is expected to drag a filament of very strong jet stream winds southwards to Florida by Thursday night. These jet stream winds are forecast by both the GFS and NAM models to bring 100-150 knots of wind shear over the disturbance, which will easily tear it apart.

Such a strong upper-level jetstream is unusual for Florida even in the winter, and almost unheard of in the summer. Any opinions on whether that forecast will verify?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
591. weathermanwannabe
2:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Based upon the most current loops, and JAX NWS radar, if the current motion continues, I would guess landfall between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach...............There are some strong thunderstorms currently offshore right at the FL/GA border
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590. thelmores
2:18 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
new blog! LOL
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589. thelmores
2:18 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
anybody else see charleston as the final destination???
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588. guygee
2:15 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Posted By: thelmores at 2:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
starting to look clear to me.... the COC may come ashore near charleston, sc later today.....

thel - Lookin at the radar loop I think what you have circled is more on the NW edge of the actual LLC. Just my opinion. You may be correct that the actual LLC is moving more WSW than SW.
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587. thelmores
2:13 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
the center is about 60 miles east of charleston, heading west.......
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586. thelmores
2:12 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
well, i am sticking with charleston as landfall for 93L.... i see no other circ.....

i guess the biggest concern with this would be f1 tornado's and waterspouts......

anybody else see charleston as the final destination???
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585. thelmores
2:08 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
could we be seeing a new center re-forming further south???

and what i have circled above is the old vortex????
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584. weathermanwannabe
2:07 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Probably decent.....I heard this week that they baged some good Redfish down in the coastal Gulf area last weekend
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583. guygee
2:05 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Looks like wannabeDebby is definitely a day tripper, as the action is heating up again this morning similar to yesterday morning. Cloud tops in the convection have briefly been as cold as -75 degrees, and the LLC circulation is a little closer to the northern edge of the deep convection than earlier this morning. The diurnal blog cycle continues...fizzling...maybe not...fizzling...maybe not...fizzling (I'm serious this time!) LOL
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582. thelmores
2:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2006


starting to look clear to me.... the COC may come ashore near charleston, sc later today.....
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581. reeldrlaura
2:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Probability of fishing being good down around Ft. White this weekend??
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580. weathermanwannabe
2:01 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Yes, in the Northest end of town
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579. reeldrlaura
1:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Mornin weatherman..you're IN Talahassee?
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578. weathermanwannabe
1:56 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Good Morning All........Same thing here on Tallahassee weather-cast this morning Thelmores...Weatherman said that the disturbance is a "fizzle-out" and that we should expect sunny hot weather for the weekend....I'm not so sure.........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
577. reeldrlaura
1:56 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Thel - I was think about heading out late this afternoon anyway. Relax, then up early am for some fishing on the river, so will keep an eye out and definitely will check with y'all before I head out towards Gainesville!
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576. reeldrlaura
1:52 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Some "sheepswool" coulds coming in from the NE, but getting shearedso to speak, fairly quickly.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
575. FortLauderdaleNole
1:51 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Currently at the FL-GA border (on the coast):

1013mb
Winds out of the North at 5kts.
574. thelmores
1:50 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
drlaura.... i would wait until this afternoon to get more information, before making a rashdecision now.....

i would say by 2pm today, you should have a pretty clear picture of what the weather would be like in santa fe.....
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573. reeldrlaura
1:49 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Oh, NO......say it isn'[t so!! :)
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572. thelmores
1:48 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
lol.....

the local radio talk show weather report kept saying that 93l had basically fizzled out.....

i sent him a visible shotin an email......

he agreed with me that the weather report he was reading "may not be totally accurate"! LOL

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571. reeldrlaura
1:45 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Posted By: thelmores at 1:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
if i was in ne florida, i would be concerned about "training" rain storms unless this thin picks up its forward motion..... but it looks like ne florida could be getting some outer bands(?) soon......

SO...Don't go fish the Santa Fe tomorrow???
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
570. reeldrlaura
1:44 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
"Beer = generic prozac"

well hades.... if thats the case I WILL NEVER BE DEPRESSED! LOL

TRUE THAT, Thel!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
569. nash28
1:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Based upon imagery and readings from the buoys, we probably have just enough to classify this as TD4. Unfortunately, they are not tasking this anymore, so it's anybody's guess.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
568. thelmores
1:37 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
"Beer = generic prozac"

well hades.... if thats the case I WILL NEVER BE DEPRESSED! LOL
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567. nash28
1:36 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Yeah it does. It'll drive you mad.
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566. thelmores
1:36 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8 GA
8:23AM
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25 kts

based upon observations, near the center for the last couple hours, i guestimate the highest sustained winds to be "at least" 30mph....

therefore, i say we "unofficially" have a tropical depression.....

if you agree or disagree....make your case! :)
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565. reeldrlaura
1:33 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Beer = generic prozac
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564. reeldrlaura
1:31 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Hey Nash....Gee whiz 93L just keeps on tickin.....not tickin....tickin....
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
563. thelmores
1:29 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
"tropically depressed"

does prozac work for that? or better yet..... could you seed the depression with "prozac" and kill it.....

well, it beats the "ignite a nuclear bomb in the eye" to kill the hurricane, and blow contamination around the world! LOL

Plus, i think you can get generic prozac now! ;) LOL
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562. reeldrlaura
1:29 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Gulf....I don't have any lawn furniture, how about a pirouge? Really was hoping to do some fishing this weekend....bad idea? How's the weather 'round Mobile?
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561. nash28
1:27 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Good morning Reel. Well, 93L is dead, alive, dead, alive.....

Actually, it stands a chance to make TD status as long as it continues moving SSW away from that hellacious shear to its North.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
559. Cavin Rawlins
1:27 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Observations for CHARLESTOWN, SC (CHS)
Observation time: 17 Aug 2006 12:56 UTC (Thu 08:56 AM EDT)


Sea Level Pressure 1016.7 hPa
Altimeter Setting 30.03 inHg
Station Pressure 1015.1 hPa
Temperature 80 F ( 26.7 C)
Dew Point 71 F ( 21.7 C)
Relative Humidity 74 %
Wind Direction 350 deg (N)
Wind Speed 11 kt
Visibility 10 mile
Clouds Few at 1300 feet
Air Density 1.168 kg/m3
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
558. vortextrance
1:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
There are some nasty storms in that new blowup but it seems very disorganized with all the storms south of the the coc. Now if a new coc could develop in the middle of the new convection I think it still could develop because its in an area of less shear.
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557. reeldrlaura
1:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Should I cancel plans to fish the Santa Fe river the next couple of days?

That's over between Gainesville and Lake City.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
556. FierceWinds
1:25 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Hmm... 93L starting to look pretty mean, but we've got some dry air heading in from the north that might have something to say about that...
555. stormchasher
1:25 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
HEy the Afircan wave is almost off Africa. It looks OK!
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554. Patrap
1:24 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
..were all tropically depressed..LOL..Gmorning to you..
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553. Cavin Rawlins
1:24 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
93L
A tropical low in association with a dying surface trough, has increase in convection this morning. The low is located 32.5N, 78W, just of the coast of South Carolina, moving WSW. Morning quicksat pass and visible satellite imagery revealed a well-define closed low level circulation with light winds, but that might change with the increase in convection this morning. However much of the convection is not well organized around the low, being sheared from the north (Discuss below).

Pressures in the area ranged from 1014-1018mbar, and a buoy (41004) located near the center measured a 1014mbar pressure.

The low is still under the influence of an upper level high, which appears to be weakening, allowing some shear from an upper level trough, over the south east Unites States, to affect it.

If the current trend continues today, then the low might reach land before it can organize, and even so, the trough is already affecting it.

Gulf of Mexico
A surface low pressure (1012) is along a surface trough, that extends from south of the Florida/Alabama coastal border into the south central Gulf of Mexico. This low is being steered a little south of due west by an upper level High located near Louisiana/Texas.

No development is expected as an upper level low is located to its NE, under the same influence of the high.
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552. thelmores
1:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
if i was in ne florida, i would be concerned about "training" rain storms unless this thin picks up its forward motion..... but it looks like ne florida could be getting some outer bands(?) soon......
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551. reeldrlaura
1:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
Mornin all....Patrap, Gulf, Nash etc. Anything happening today?
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550. tampadude
1:20 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
gulfscotsman -

This land "was made for" you and me.
549. thelmores
1:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
do you think the HH's will fly this today????

seems if they are, they would have to make the "go" decision soon......

i believe if they do fly this, and this convective burst persists, i think we have a good shot at TD.... maybe even weak TS.........

thoughts??
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548. thelmores
1:16 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
sry bout the image screwup.... hit submit instead of preview! LOL



any guess on the max winds???
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547. thelmores
1:13 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
img src="http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c20/thelmores/93lradar4.jpg"/>
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546. nash28
1:12 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
I think you may be right Gulf. The majority of the shear is to the north of 93L and it is moving SSW away from the shear. There is still some shear to its south, but nothing near as hostile as it is north of the disturbance.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
545. Patrap
1:05 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
..funny the things you see in a massive flood..the fruit shaken loose from trees ..pears,..grapefruit..satsumas..they float good..and you never saw so many freaking gas cans floating..Boat gas...mix gas for weed eaters..it was a standing order in our life..dont get in da water..if ya could help it..We became siphoning pros too..We went from the Jetsons to the Flintstones..in 5 hours..
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544. ProgressivePulse
1:04 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON THIS AREA TODAY WAS CANCELLED BY
NHC AT 15/1130Z.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
542. Patrap
12:58 PM GMT on August 17, 2006
..Katrina had lighting in the periphery around the eyewall ..it was wicked..around 0515 when the eywall hit..then it stared getting light around 0545-0600..then you could just make out the banding in between gust..and man,Id never seen a ceiling so angry or low..then it was hunker down mode..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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