New disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:43 PM GMT on August 15, 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

The old frontal boundary that spawned the distubance off the East Coast we're watching has spawned a new disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A large blow-up of intense thunderstorms south of New Orleans marks the center of this disturbance. With wind shear only 5-10 knots, this region is probably the bigger threat to develop than its sister east of Florida, which is under higher wind shear. Developments from old fronts are usually slow, and I expect Thursday is the earliest we would have to worry about a tropical depression forming. Steering currents are weak, but a slow motion to the south or southwest away from Louisiana should begin tonight. The NHC has not run their package of preliminary model runs on this system yet, but I will post them as soon as they do.

East coast of Florida disturbance
Heavy thunderstorms continue over the waters east of Florida this evening along a broad area of low pressure that has developed from the remains of an old cold front. Wind shear is 10-15 knots in a narrow band along this old front, which is low enough to allow some development to occur. This disturbance remains poorly organized, with only a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled and rescheduled for Wednesday.

The computer models are forecasting that any system that forms in this area will begin moving northwestwards towards the Carolinas over the next two days, in response to a trough of low pressure swinging across the eastern U.S. When the trough moves out to sea on Thursday, high pressure is forecast to build back in, forcing the system back towards the west, or leaving it nearly stationary off the East Coast. None of the computer models forecast that the storm will grow to anything stronger than a 40-mph tropical storm.


Figure 1. Current satellite of the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

I'll be back Wednesday with my Atlantic tropical outlook for the rest of August.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1019 - 969

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

1019. weathermanwannabe
4:11 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hello all..........It's seems to me (amateur observation)that any lack of development on the part of 93L may indeed be related to the ultimate level of wind shear since the water vapor loops seem to indicate that there is enough moisture, as opposed to dry air, in the present vicinity and it remains close to the Gulf Stream............If wind shear does not blow it apart, then it may have a good chance at development
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
1018. guygee
2:39 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Posted By: thelmores at 2:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2006.
well, the comment about 93L you get from me..... it has an extremely small ciculation..... so it could weaken petty rapidly.... or intensify....

Good point thel. At least we know which surface low is 93L now! Just a surge of moderate shear could blow the top off of 93L. It looks to me that the trough axis is passing to the east of the longitude of 93L, so I think that will tend to push it south and west, and the ULL will also pull it in that direction. If the surface low moves against this steering, then I think it will get sheared.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1017. IKE
2:32 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Looks like the main low is off of the SC coast and most models have it diving SW toward NE or east-central Florida.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1016. category6
2:30 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
always a 50/50 chance
looking at the local bouy observations,
Frying Pan shaols bouy, located approximately on the western edge of 93L has a 15.5mph sustained wind from due North. The bouy 250 miles east of Charleston, SC, approximately on 93L's western edge has a 12 mph sustained wind out due south. That shows a 180 degree variation in wind direction from east to west. Is the circulation center becoming better organized, I think yes. Convection continues just south of west on 93L not directly over the center though.
1015. thelmores
2:30 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
NEW BLOG UP!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1014. thelmores
2:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
guess i should qualify my statement to the "northern" low associated with 93L..... I guess thats what you would call it!

i am still looking at the possibility that one of these lows could absorb the other....

but since you have two lows so close, it also throws extra error in the models imho.......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1013. thelmores
2:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
well, the comment about 93L you get from me..... it has an extremely small ciculation..... so it could weaken petty rapidly.... or intensify....

flip a coin......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1012. rwdobson
2:17 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
and the GOM blob seems to have vanished...typical pattern. first i'm very skeptical, then the blob looks good and i think "hmm maybe i was wrong, maybe it will do something", then it falls apart.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
1011. StormJunkie
2:15 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
The model runs that come out at 2pm should give us a better idea. It will also be very interesting to see if 93 can hold the convection through the late afternoon early evening hours.

That being said, the GFDL seems to have had a pretty good handle on the system thus far. Intensity and track IMHO.

thel-got your mail...Get with you this weekend.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1009. thelmores
2:14 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
well, i need some water for my grass..... so a nice dpression with about 2-3 inches of rain will do just fine! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1008. thelmores
2:12 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
" I would think that the front would pick it up and push it out to sea?"

well, guess that depends on how much "pull" that trough has, and "how fast" the high pressure builds in when the trough passes....... and how strong the high pressure will be.....

sounds like lots of room for error in all that! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1007. IKE
2:12 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
The unreliable NAM jumped on board with a SW movement too on the earlier run.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1006. category6
2:12 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
the weak front moving through NC will likely limit the westward track of 93L. I don't know if the front is strong enough to pick it up and wisk it NE as some of the models show. I would be happy if it sat right where it is a developed further, stayed there for about a month, and then dissipated. But, that is just wishful thinking.
1005. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:11 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
wow weather456, you've been keeping track of how many cyclones formed so far this year..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
1004. nash28
2:10 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
I think it will take the SW track as the BAM models have indicated.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1003. guygee
2:07 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 1:55 PM GMT on August 16, 2006.
Guygee amazing how much the QuikScat changed as the area off SC has deepened this morning.

Skye - Kinda shakes my faith. The pass from around 10:00 UTC for Storm 93 was showing no circulation to the north, just a trough extending from the Bahamas, now that page is blank attm and the 12.5 km hi-res view shows a strong circulation.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1002. lonestarstorm
2:06 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Atlantic is blowing up. Debby will be here soon and hit Florida. I am going to say 4 Atlanitc storms at once in next two weeks.
1001. StormJunkie
2:04 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
lol thel

See ya'll later
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1000. Cavin Rawlins
2:02 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Tropical Storm Wukong churns its way towards Southern Japan.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
999. StormJunkie
2:02 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Morning again ya'll.

Thanks for the info. Will be interesting to see how 93L plays out. The structure continues to improve this morning. Really looked dead last night.

So what are the takes on track? Does the GFDL have it right or is the GFS right with the eventual NE motion. Being as far norht as it is, I would think that the front would pick it up and push it out to sea?

StormJunkie.com Quick Links-Easily find the best imagery, forecast models, preparedness info, and much more from one ad free page.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
998. thelmores
2:02 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
ok..... what track will the northern 93L LOW take.....

to me it appears to be moving slowly slightly south of west....... which would be in line with the gfdl????

anybody??
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
997. guygee
2:02 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Posted By: ProgressivePulse at 1:54 PM GMT on August 16, 2006.
Could it Be?

Yeesh, I was getting all ready to sign out on 93L, and now it is showing signs of renewal. If I watch the visible loop starting with the first light, the surface circulation was exposed to the NE, then either reforms or moves SW underneath the convection.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
996. IKE
1:56 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hey Ike, where exactly is Defuniak Springs? Ya'll have come up a few times for finance data at the city I work for.

70 miles east of Pensacola.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
995. Skyepony (Mod)
1:55 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Flight is still on
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (E OF GA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 16/1400Z
D. 32.0N 74.5W
E. 16/1700Z TO 15/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Guygee amazing how much the QuikScat changed as the area off SC has deepened this morning.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38321
994. nash28
1:54 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
93L refuses to give up. It is in some pretty low shear and warm waters.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
993. Cavin Rawlins
1:54 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Good Morning All......
Tropical Storm Hector has form.
Hector is the 46th named storm of the 2006 World Tropical Cyclone Season, and the 59th tropical system (TD and above).

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
992. ProgressivePulse
1:54 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Could it Be?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5451
991. flwatergal
1:53 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hey guys, checking in...

Rand, you've got mail.

Hey Ike, where exactly is Defuniak Springs? Ya'll have come up a few times for finance data at the city I work for.
990. ProgressivePulse
1:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
LOL Thel!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5451
989. thelmores
1:50 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
guygee..... sounds like you went to the same art school i did..... stick-art! LOL

i try to stick to basic stuff..... circles, lines, and if i feel really sporty.... maybe an arrow! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
988. CajunOil
1:50 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Grrr stay away from LA nasty storm
987. ProgressivePulse
1:49 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
RADAR looking interesting here.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5451
986. guygee
1:46 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
It looks rather large for a seagull, but the shape is correct. That is how I draw them, anyways.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
985. Tazmanian
1:46 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
16/1145 UTC 32.1N 76.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
984. guygee
1:45 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Posted By: thelmores at 1:41 PM GMT on August 16, 2006.
what is that????? seagulls???

Just one, flying very high ;)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
983. thelmores
1:41 PM GMT on August 16, 2006


what is that????? seagulls???
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
982. guygee
1:40 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Regarding 93L, the northern part does look more vigorous. The latest 13:01 hi-res QuickSCAT pass looks a lot different from the one 3 hours ago...circulation is definitely consolidated into the surface low pressure center off the SC coast.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
981. Tazmanian
1:39 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
by the way this is a link to Invest 93L all the Image for 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
980. category6
1:35 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
so are we considering 93L to have 2 circulation areas? If so, the northerly component seems to be going through a period of regeneration. Convection has increased on the west side of the "circulation" near the SC coast. The models are definitely a bit schizophrenic as to the forecast track.

skyepony--thats a crazy looking pic. Kind of reminds me of the old Incredible Hulk TV show with the split screen thing at the intro.
979. thelmores
1:35 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
interesting Skyepony......

is this blob worth wasting gas money? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
977. Tazmanian
1:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
so did 93L make a come back today?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
976. Skyepony (Mod)
1:28 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Here's a link to the winds for 95L (gulf), to unimpressive to post.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38321
975. Tazmanian
1:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
so oh is 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
974. Skyepony (Mod)
1:24 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Kinda a bad pass on 93L but it gives an idea that there is plenty of 35kt winds.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38321
973. thelmores
1:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
"So, is it the North Low or the South Low that will end up being the dominant one?"

morning nash..... to be honest, i am watching the northern part, since it is closest to me..... not sure how this plays out to be honest..... i have been studying....but not ready to test yet! LOL



looks surface, but not closed...... course thats an amatuer assesment! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
971. Skyepony (Mod)
1:14 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Here is a animated shear map. Shear is forcasted to move in on 93L.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38321
970. plywoodstatenative
1:14 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Its mother nature's doughnut, simple as that. As for 93L, doesn't it appear that there are 2 sections of it, one near NC and one near Florida?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
969. nash28
1:12 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Good morning Thelmores. So, is it the North Low or the South Low that will end up being the dominant one?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

Viewing: 1019 - 969

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
52 °F
Overcast