Watching two waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:44 PM GMT on July 26, 2005

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The tropics remain relatively quiet today. Franklin continues to barely struggle along, and a few modest tropical waves are moving across the far Atlantic. One of these waves, located near 9N 42W, shows some promise for development. It lies over farly warm 29C waters and has some favorable upper level winds over it. As long as the wave maintains its current west-northwest motion at 15 mph, it will stay over warm water and have a chance to develop. But as you can see from the SST plot below, any northward deviation to a latitude north of about 11N will bring it over waters less than 27C, which is the minimum temperature needed for tropical storm formation. A second wave near 12N 30W, just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, showed some increase in convection the past few hours, and looks more promising than the first wave. However, this wave is very close the the cooler water boundary, so any northward component to its motion would dampen its chances of development. The wave is currently moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The GFS model doesn't develop either of these waves into tropical depressions over the next four days.





Dr. Jeff Masters

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794. makinsey
1:18 AM GMT on August 14, 2008
georgia is long time due for 1.hope not but its true
793. Toyotaman
8:22 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
You are exactly right WSI, I still cannot believe he will not own up to his bad forecast on emily.
792. WSI
5:10 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I wasn't here for Dennis or Cindy Stormtop, in all fairness to you. Maybe you had them right, maybe you didn't. Dennis wasn't too hard to forecast though. I didn't keep track of Cindy much. Let me tell you what I have seen. You forecasted Emily to hit the Gulf Coast. Didn't happen. You forecasted Gert to hit the Gulf Coast. Didn't happen. You had intensities of both storms wrong. You said the models were out to lunch on both. Yet, they did a bang up job overall. That is what I see. I am not a critic, but I don't accept someone forecasting so much intensity and damage when their track record hasn't been even close.
791. EmmyRose
4:36 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Dont watch FOX so I dont know about that
Models have been pretty accurate and I agree
that is how they can gather information, research, compare and learn
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
790. Jedkins
4:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Go to knew blog
789. Jedkins
4:25 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
But that is obviously not true and whatever source you got that from is lying to you outrocket,but no more disagreement Ithink both of us could be wrong so I will stop my childish bashing.
788. Jedkins
4:23 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
55% - 65% I should say typo.
787. Jedkins
4:23 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
They are not 90% more around 55% - 60%.
786. Jedkins
4:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
well I believe you are right simialar to my thinking models are a usefull tool in forecasting but I dont count on them,but that doesn't mean I despise them eather.
785. outrocket
4:18 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Oh and side note...those models for hurricane prediction are 90%...better than all here from post i've read...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
784. Jedkins
4:17 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
CNN?Whoa there getting desprate cause fox is beating them out,So I guess they have to try something,but since when has cnn been hurricane headquarters? lol.
783. outrocket
4:17 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
My opinion on models,They are not just for hurricanes ,in fact they are for global forecast.They have been the biggest advancement in long term forecasting so far. Look at how they do elsewhere not just the tropics then judge them.Besides without them the DATA would have to be done by hand which may take a team of mathmaticians 2 years to project just one plot for a hurricane...by then maybe 30 more would have come and gone..motto :dont blast what you dont understand.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
782. oriondarkwood
4:16 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
EmmyRose,

Never owned a VW, but I know most VW owners are fantics about thier cars.

Punk,

Yea one of the Toyoto's I owned the orignal owner drove it into a tree. He took it to a garage I used to work at and wouldn't pay the bill. The owner was about to ditch the thing and sue the owner. But I convinced him to let my buy it and drop the matter. And one of the Nissian's I owned the orginal owner at blew up the engine. He gave to me and I got a garage owner to take the engine out of a wrecked Nissian and put it into the other Nissian I just got.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
781. Jedkins
4:15 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I saw them have the story about the sahara dust at least 4 times and I wasn't watching it the whole day.
780. EmmyRose
4:14 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
CNN now calls themselves Hurricane Headquarters - hee
and I agree TWC only spends a minute on tropical updates
then how to garden or care for your dog -
Models have been pretty accurate but to predict something so far out you might as well consult a psychic OR CNN Hurricane Headquarters LOL
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
779. Jedkins
4:14 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Well they did quite a bit yesterday
778. Jedkins
4:13 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
It will likely not be another franklin the trough will stay farther west and the high over north and central florida extending into eastern gulf as of right now.
777. whirlwind
4:11 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Jedkins..all Im saying is they can spend a bit more time than 2 minutes rushing thru what has happened with Franklin and talked about future waves. They didnt even talk about the Sahara dust...
776. Jedkins
4:09 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I dont COUNT on computer modles but they are a useful TOOL in weather forecasting,thats my oppinion on computer models.
775. Jedkins
4:08 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
So gfs says one of the waves will hit florida as a hurricane,interesting....
774. STORMTOP
4:06 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
east coast of us...
773. Jedkins
4:06 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
You relize that a USA weather channel is goining to cover all of the us cuz there are other parts of the country where no one cares about tropical weather and want to know what going to happen in their area,untill a tropical system becomes a strong hurricane or a tropical storm/hurricane comes close to the US they dont cover it very much on the weather channel and rightly so beacause the have the rest of the country that could care less about tropical waves,In fact when hurricanes have thretened the US they have the most coverage so I dont know what you are complaining about.
772. whirlwind
4:05 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Stormtop..you say east coast..of florida? Or east coast of US?
771. STORMTOP
4:02 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
hey wsi why dont you ask me what i did right for cindy and dennis...had cindy within 10 miles of landfall the weather servive was 40 miles off and dennis i hit right on the nose..that doesnt count in your book i guess...thats ok i can take a critic very well..yes i do live on the gulf coast and i dont agree with your east coast forecast they are lucky to have one this year if that wsi....
770. whirlwind
4:00 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
hmm..talking about TV. The Weather Channel cant even spend a full 5 minutes on the Tropical Update and cant even speculate on the waves coming. They can spend endless time on stupid "gardening tips" and talkin over and over about the midwest. Bahh...they suck. I gotta start watching ch 7. Its kinda like watching stormtop on tv..;)
769. WSI
3:59 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
In either case, thanks for the answer. When I get time I will review the weather data myself and see how your conclusions fit in. Thanks. :)
768. WSI
3:58 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Don't believe in models? Even though they had the storm pegged pretty well overall? I think they did a fine job this time around.
767. WSI
3:57 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Didn't Stormyop say he lives on the Gulf Coast? And he ALWAYS calls for the Gulf Coast to get slammed? Either he really likes to see/wants to see hurricanes pass over him, or he likes to be in the middle of the action. East coast only one major hurricane? Logic says otherwise.
766. STORMTOP
3:52 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
the answer wsi why i was so far off was number 1

the storm never got started a low pressure system developed over the southern yucatan and zapped all the energy causing gert to have shear all the way to it hit mexico..it was about 50 miles off the coast when the shear started to let up and then it was to close to land...i didnt expect the high over the gulf to be that strong with a weak tropical storm to push it inland that easy...it is the tropical storm that always gives you fits...to answer your question what i would do different...there was no way of forecasting a middle low would develop and be that strong for 48 hours even the computers had it weakening in 12 hours moving south which that was wrong it moved west causing more sheer on the storm....that cut the strengtning of the system and why it moved into mexico i didnt think in my mind the high was strong enough to push a tropical storm inland and keep it moving...what i would do different? check the amount of wind sheer around the storm and also check out buoys in the gulf to see whats happening out there and check the pressure charts more closely.i saw this scenario coming when the low began to move west but i wont hedge on my forecast...what i say at the beginning i stick to it...i just got caught in a catch 22...i still dont believe in models wsi.....StormTop
765. outrocket
3:37 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I just hope a local TV station dont hire stormtop as a broadcast meteorologist...I mean the aftermath of the evacuations would maybe rival a cat5.....
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
764. WSI
3:28 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I am still waiting for you to answer my questions Stormtop.
763. sittingwetinflorida
3:27 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
well if the bermuda high moves east wouldnt that push any storms into the gulf and give them a chance to intensify more?
762. cornflake826
3:15 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I see 2 named and 1 depression before end of the month and the depression would be jose by aug 1 or 2
761. cornflake826
3:14 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Still you never know what storms do once it hits that hotass water in the bahamas. Only if the bermuda moves more east would I breath a sigh of relief for Florida. and plus the further south these storms are the less affect a trough would give in picking them up and taking them out to sea
760. punkasshans
3:13 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
3 storms in 5 days. . .that would be amazing. I see maybe 2 by the end of the month. 1 definately.

759. STORMTOP
3:11 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
correction 14 hurricanes...i wanted to set the record straight...
758. punkasshans
3:10 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I see what you are saying, that it will be off the coast. If that model does turn out to be true, then maybe we might have a storm near florida. But it also looks like it will bend to the north, be another Franklin.
757. cornflake826
3:08 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Yes I see Harvey, and Irene forming during the next week, and history past Harvey brushed s Fla, and Irene was a cat 1 back door hit for s. Fla. and I would bet that Jose will floating around somewhere to
756. STORMTOP
3:07 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
i have 3 reasons why i think the tropics will heat up even more in The last 3 months...
1. less shear across the tropics ..this will set the stage for warmer temps from the coast of africa to the eastern caribbean sea..this will let more energy develop and spawn more tropical activity..

2 the lack of and el nino and a la nina this year combined with the weaker azores high and much warmer temps in the atlantic will allow for a more northward shift in the ITCZ..this will cause less shear over the eastern caribbean and will develop more hurricanes before they reach the winward islands..another reason is also the upper TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH that causes extreme shear in the eastern caribbean will be non existent this year allowing more hurricanes combined with the high water tepm to strengthen more rapidly..

3 that lack of troughs coming down the pike causing the hurricanes to curve out to sea is not happeneing..i think the azores high by moving from the se where it normally is and moving back towards the nw blocking all the troughs that try to come down to be our saving grace..the bermuda ridge has weakened considerably and i think will get even weaker keeping the azore high in control and not let the hurricanes turn out into the atlantic...this is the main reason why i am calling for increase activity for the gulf coast states from texas to fla..i think the east coast if a trough happens to be strong enough and weakens the azores high the east coast could get 1 major hurricane before its over...but as we know all it takes is one ...my 2005 forecast have been increased it goes like this:

NAMED STORMS 22

HURRICANES 13

MAJOR HURRICANES 8

i will be back later on to explain my new stormtop intensity scale i have had lots of questions already about it...until later people you have a great day and watch my prediction still stands 3 more named storms in july..im saying harvey friday irene saturday and jose sunday...the tropics will stay very active in the year 2005 causing the gulf coast and lets not forget mexico they are not out of the woods by any means to have hurricane conditions of major proportions...its looking good for the east coast and miami...this is my opinion only i want to emphasize this....

StormTop
755. whirlwind
3:00 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
yea..models arent too accurate, but this is what I was looking at:

Link

just hit "fwd". You will see it.
754. cornflake826
2:57 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
punkass notice this is 5 day model, notice i said more then a week from now, 7-9 days, pay attention to the one showing up in the hispaniola in 5 days. Any storm that is in that general vicinity everybody on the east coast of Florida should pay attention to.
753. punkasshans
2:51 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I havent seen ANY models where storms hit Florida. A storm hitting florida in a weeks time is almost impossible to predict. If you would like an idea of ALL of the possible storm scenarios Emma, check out this link:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005072700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

Notice: no storms over Florida.
752. cornflake826
2:49 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Yes but they also are not good at predicting a storm forming until after it happens, and if most of the models are picking up a storm forming I think the chances are good, i just hope if they do they go out to sea.
751. EmmyRose
2:47 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
That's why I asking how did they know so far out in advance Punkass
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
750. punkasshans
2:45 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Orion,

My car already has had its engine melt (i over heated it the second day i got it). Wasnt a fault on my behalf, but more from the previous owner. But oh well, we got a "new" 70,000 mile engine. Hopefully it will last a long time now.

EVERYONE,

Remember that the models are VERY poor at predicting cyclogenisis. In other words, if they show a storm developing on the model, it does not mean 100% that a storm will be created.
749. EmmyRose
2:45 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Guess Im talking to myself this morning -
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
748. EmmyRose
2:42 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
Sorry for you :-( happy for Texas :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
747. cornflake826
2:41 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
The long term models have been picking up at least 2 storms forming and coming in this general direction from the bahamas
746. EmmyRose
2:41 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
What's with Franklin? Why doesn't this thing get a life?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
745. EmmyRose
2:38 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
How do you know Florida is going to get hit what is everyone looking at
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
744. EmmyRose
2:37 PM GMT on July 27, 2005
I have a yellow VWBug 2001 and I love it - does well in all kinds of weather - even flooding - for some reason my car makes all the deep water - I guess it's the floating effect
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.