Watching three tropical waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on August 14, 2006

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Heavy thunderstorms continue over the waters east of Florida this morning along an old cold front. Wind shear is 10-15 knots in a narrow band along this old front, which is low enough to allow some development to occur. A non-tropical area of low pressure developed yesterday near 28N 74W, a few hundred miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Preliminary forecast tracks for this low are plotted in Figure 1. However, visible satellite imagery from this morning reveals that a new area of low pressure is developing much closer to the Florida coast near 27.5N 78W, about 150 miles east of Vero Beach. Long range radar out of Melbourne is also showing an increase in thunderstorm activity off the coast in association with this developing low. This low is drifting slowly southwards, and we don't have any premilinary model tracks from NHC for it. My guess is that this new low will dominate the circulation and the old low NHC has been tracking will dissipate later today. The East Coast of Florida near Vero Beach and West Palm Beach could get heavy rain today as this new low continues to develop.

Development along old fronts is usually slow, so the earliest we should expect a tropical depression to form from either of these two lows is Tuesday. There is a significant amount of wind shear on either side, plus plenty of dry air to the north, so anything that develops will likely struggle to intensify. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system on Tuesday afternoon.

The computer models are forecasting that any low that forms along the old front will begin moving northwestwards towards the Carolinas over the next three days, in response to a trough of low pressure swinging across the eastern U.S. When the trough moves out to sea on Thursday, high pressure is forecast to build back in, forcing the system back towards the west, or leaving it nearly stationary off the East Coast. None of the computer models forecast that the storm will grow to anything stronger than a 45-mph tropical storm.


Figure 1. Current satellite of the Florida region.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
A tropical wave a few hundred miles west of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west-northwestward at 10-15 mph. While the wave is an area of low wind shear (5-10 knots), it is embedded in a large area of dry air, which is keeping thunderstorm activity minimal. A QuikSCAT pass from 5:48am EDT today showed no surface circulation and top winds below 20 mph. The dry air should keep any development slow today. Wind shear is expected to remain below 10 knots near the wave's location through Tuesday, but the long-term prospect of this system becoming a hurricane is very low. The wave is headed for the Western Caribbean, where high wind shear associated with an upper-level low pressure system will dominate all week. The Hurricane Hunters mission scheduled for today was canceled, due to the wave's lack of organization. NHC did not run their package of preliminary model tracks on it this morning, and this may be the last mention I give of this system.

New wave off of Africa
A large and impressive tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa today, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands. The wave has a well-defined circulation at mid-levels, and is under about 10 knots of wind shear. It could develop into a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves west-northwest just south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

Figure 3. Preliminary models tracks for the Cape Verdes Islands disturbance.

I'll be back with an update Tuesday, unless some significant development occurs. On either Tuesday or Wednesday, I plan to post my outlook for the remainder of August. Is today's activity a sign the tropics are heating up?

Jeff Masters

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1279. quakerboy
4:06 PM GMT on August 21, 2006
Where is Dr. Masters? Things are jumping in the east Atlantic.
1277. STORMTOP
3:42 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
scottsman you are a fool there is nothing developing in the gulf of mexico....like i told all of you their is entirely to much shear and dry air for anything to organize and it will be like this for at least 2 more weeks...scottsman the low that you are seeing south of mobile is and upper level low...dont go scaring people on the gulf coast please!!!!!!!!!im having A GREAT vacation dont mess it up for me with your obsurd low in the gulf....now back to some good fishing....StormTop
1276. StoryOfTheHurricane
9:44 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Gulf

1275. StoryOfTheHurricane
9:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Caribbean


Florida


Cape Verde
1271. Chicklit
2:10 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Walrus: Dr. Masters doesn't usually post until about 10 a.m.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
1270. Jebekarue
2:08 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
what will that high pressure that is just off the LA coast do to it?
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
1269. Jebekarue
2:05 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
that blob that is in the gulf came out of Alabama last night if im not mistaken, odds are it wont go back north it would probably go west correct?
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
1268. robinvtx
2:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
dr neil frank here in houston thinks it could be an issue over the weekend for the upper tx coast. have to wait and see he says
1267. walrusiam
2:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
I hope I have this right. We have a massive threat looming just 150 miles south of the gulf coast in the Gulf of Mexico and it just so happens that the NHC and TWC don't have anything to say about it and, lo and behold, Dr. Master's has not deemed it important enough to drop in and even post a message about it on the blog or update the blog. I think I might put off evacuation plans for awhile yet. In fact, I think I might just have another bourbon.
1266. AllyBama
1:42 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
You are right PascMiss..hopefully the blob will drift SW and dissipate. This would effect no one.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
1265. weathermanwannabe
1:37 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Good Morning All..Slim pickins out there today....we will probably have to wait a few days (towards the end of the week) to see if anything develops out of any of the blobs out there.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
1264. PascMississippi
1:27 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Hey Ally, we just need to keep an eye open now.
1263. AllyBama
1:23 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Even though I get more and better info here, the TWC didn't mention the Gulf blob @ 7:50.

Well, at least the hurricane hunters are back in Biloxi if we need them here!!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
1260. PascMississippi
1:21 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
I'm on the Mississippi Coast. How far south are we talking?
1257. AllyBama
1:17 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Gulf, did you get any storms from the "Blob"? It split in my area; all storms were east and west of me.
Are you sure that you didn't conjure this up just so we could have something to talk about today?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
1255. AllyBama
1:13 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Good morning all...
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
1254. nash28
1:12 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Could be Gulf.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1253. Skyepony (Mod)
1:12 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Scottsman, the gfs had a low forming in the gulf for one run the other day. The next run busted it up. Certainly something to keep an eye to, while things look to want to fire up some convection this morning.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39432
1251. 21N71W
1:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
hello to all
what about the PR blob lurking.....
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
1248. Tazmanian
12:58 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
nop 94L is gone from the navy site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1247. IKE
12:56 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Thanks for the links 1900hurricane...and good morning everybody else....

GS...guess you weren't BS-ing about a system south of Mobile. Excuse me for saying you were teasin yesterday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1245. Melagoo
12:53 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Geeze those models look like someone throwing a dart in the dark .... for Pete's sake its a guessing game
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1607
1244. Tazmanian
12:52 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
94L is gone
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1243. nash28
12:50 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Good morning Gulf!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1242. Jebekarue
12:49 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Mornin everyone, so where is that Gulf blob going to go?
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
1241. guygee
12:46 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Looks like the NHC switched on 93L again and initialized the 8 AM BAMM, BAMD, A98E and LBAR models using the more northern surface low. BAMD shows movement towards Daytona Beach, LBAR N then NE, the other models show looping/nearly stationary. Since the system not well developed at this time, I think the current model runs could change significantly depending on just where the dominant surface low develops (if it develops much at all).
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
1239. 1900hurricane
12:43 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
See Y'all later! I have more summer things to do before school starts tomarrow.
: (
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
1238. nash28
12:41 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Model consensus is still mostly into FL. for 93L.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1236. SWLAStormFanatic
12:40 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
1900.. you're all over things this morning. Good job.
1235. 1900hurricane
12:39 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Location of the Bermuda High

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
1234. 1900hurricane
12:37 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Whatever 93L develops into, it is likely to move that way

Experts
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
1233. IKE
12:36 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Posted By: ricderr at 7:33 AM CDT on August 15, 2006.
ok......another questions for the blogging sages.....seeing that almost all the models show 93L making landafall at the florida georgia border...is that significant?


My guess...93L heads slowly north, then gets forced back to the west or SW by building high pressure.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1232. ricderr
12:33 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
ok......another questions for the blogging sages.....seeing that almost all the models show 93L making landafall at the florida georgia border...is that significant?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22373
1231. 1900hurricane
12:33 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
94L models

Early Track
Late track
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
1230. 1900hurricane
12:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
More Models
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
1229. 1900hurricane
12:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2006
Models for 93L
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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