Watching the waters near Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:03 PM GMT on August 13, 2006

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Heavy thunderstorms are on the increase in the waters east of Florida this morning along an old cold front that pushed off the coast. Wind shear is 10 knots along this old front, and is forecast to remain 10 knots or lower through Tuesday. This is low enough to allow some development to occur, and we'll have to watch this area closely. Most of the computer models are forecasting that something will develop along the front, as early as Monday. The models are very uncertain about where such a development might go. If something develops relatively close to Florida, the preferred track appears to be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A more northerly track towards the Carolinas is also one of the model solutions. If something develops further from Florida, the preferred track is northeastward towards Bermuda. We'll just have to wait and see where the focus of development may be along the old front.


Figure 1. Current satellite of the Florida region.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave near Barbados
A tropical wave near Barbados is producing heavy rain in the southern Lesser Antilles Islands today as it moves westward at 10-15 mph. Barbados has reported some heavy rain with this system, but winds have been below 20 mph on the island, and the QuikSCAT satellite did not see any winds over 20 mph in a 6:14am EDT pass today. While the wave is an area of low wind shear (5-10 knots), it is embedded in a large area of dry air, which should keep development slow today. Wind shear is expected to remain below 10 knots in the Eastern Caribbean through Tuesday, so the wave has some potential for development once the dry air surrounding it becomes more dilute.


Figure 3. Preliminary models tracks for the Barbados tropical wave.

I'll have an update this afternoon if changing conditions warrant; otherwise, see you Monday morning!

Jeff Masters

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732. Cavin Rawlins
2:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
NEW BLOG IS UP
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
730. 1900hurricane
2:16 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
W. Pac. Sat. Loop

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
729. Cavin Rawlins
2:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Pressure:1008mbar
Winds:35mph


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
728. StormJunkie
2:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Ask and you shall recieve....Dr M new blog is up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
727. Randrewl
2:14 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
I'm within 75 miles of the circulation of 93L and my pressure is 1011MB. I don't know where these higher pressures are being reported?
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31581
724. 1900hurricane
2:11 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Hey Y'all! I know the main focus is the atlantic, but here is the latest on Tropical storm Wukong and newly upgraded Tropical Storm Sonamu (Katring).
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
723. Cavin Rawlins
2:09 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
93L
A weak area of low pressure 1012 (strongest in the mid-layers of the atmosphere), associated with a stationary frontal boundary, has become better organized, in terns of structure. It has develop divergence aloft, which has started some convergence in the low levels, which could lead to the formation a surface low.

The Upper level Low, near the north central Bahaman Islands, has weakened enough to produce 0-20knots of shear of the area, allowing some further development, if other conditions allow.

If anything develops, it could either drift east and out to sea, remaining a threat to Bermuda, west towards Florida or Georgia, or northeast towards the Carolinas.

Surface observations and quicksat pass reveal there is a circulation with some strong winds. Pressures from stations nearby range from 1014-1017mbars.

Behind the frontal boundary is very dry air, which could limit development.

Tropical Wave (92L) located along 63W, moving west through the Caribbean Sea, has less organized. Showers and thunderstorms had diminished yesterday into overnight, due to the relatively dry environment. This morning there is some spotty showers associated with it but that has been caused by an Upper Level High Pressure north of it. That is high is creating 0knots of shear over the system but shear increases as it goes west to near 30knots, produce by the same upper level low north of the Bahamas.

This morning quicksat pass reveal no circulation associated with the tropical wave, and winds are relatively light.

Development is limited as shear is forecast to remain 16m/s in the next 48hrs.

Tropical off the African Coast (94L)
A well define and rather large wave has move off the African Coast this morning, the wave is embedded in the monsoonal trough rather than the ITCZ, which is causing an unstable atmospheric environment, leading to low pressure atmospheric pressures, and spinning in the lower levels (convergence.

The wave has a classic curvature signature, with both strong divergence aloft, and low level convergence.

The wave is sitting over above 80degress water, and winds shear of about 15-20knots.

Land-based surface observation near the wave:

Dakar, Senegal - 1012mbar/89% humidity.
Banjul, Gambia - 1012mbar/100% humidity.
Bissau, Guinea-Bissau - 1011mbar/94% humidity.

This wave could become our next depression.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
722. thelmores
2:08 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
man, 93L is getting quite a circ..... drawing in moisture from the gulf even.......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
721. FLKEYSRADIO
2:08 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
<<== consults Magic 8-Ball
720. SavannahStorm
2:08 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
If 93L can stick around the low shear and hot GulfStream waters for awhile it's got a good shot at development despite the dry air. I just don't see it getting too organized, so I expect an Alberto-like storm. It's gonna have to do a lot of spinning in-place for anything to happen, though.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2313
719. ricderr
2:07 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
michael..it's not the size of the blob that counts...but it's relative nearness to your home
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
718. thelmores
2:07 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
"Now that is a huge blob:....Compare to 93L:"

yea..... but 94L is friggin "weeks" away...... anything could happen.... i dont care how impressive it is now...if it looks the same in the morning, THEN 94L may get my attention.....

having said all that. it does look mighty impressive atm!!!

where is the good Dr. this morning.... must be looking at the tea leaves! ;)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
717. Tazmanian
2:06 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
94L has 30kts winds or 35 mph and a 1008mb TD 4 today and TS tonight
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
714. Randrewl
2:03 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
HobeSoundShudders....10-4!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31581
712. SavannahStorm
2:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
impressive

94L is looking quite impressive, but it looks like 93L might be watering my thirsty plants soon!
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2313
711. StormJunkie
2:00 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
I would not be suprised to see it drift WNW then W. Not sure about the long track N then S. Depending on where and if it forms, I would not be a bit suprised to see it come in around GA.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
710. SWFLdrob
2:00 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Hard to see 93L developing into much at the moment. Massive amount of dry air to the north of it will probably keep it from forming into much for the time being at least.
709. thelmores
2:00 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
LOL Gulf....

some people can't see the forest for the tree's! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
708. thelmores
1:58 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
mornin SJ.....

my thoughts exactly when i saw the gfdl this morning..... but i think 93L may have a few curves in store.... in fact, you may be more likely to see 93L than me......

guess we'll have to see how far south 93L goes, and how the building high plays out.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
707. nash28
1:58 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
The center of 93L looks ALOT further south than the models have been initializing.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
703. EnglishGuy
1:56 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Don't worry, I got the image now. Yes, It's definately the most impressive system I've seen coming off the coast this year. I do have a question though. Typically, NHC doesn't acknowledge waves coming off Africa for at least 24 hours. Does anyone think this system's well organized appearance will convince NHC to include it in the next tropical weather outlook?
702. StormJunkie
1:56 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Not sure I have ever seen an invest that close to the African coast. Looks like a classic CV system though. Don't know what kind of conditions it will be facing in the coming days though.

See ya'll later. The 12Z runs of the models should be out between one and two. Will be very interesting to see what they have to say.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
701. thelmores
1:56 PM GMT on August 14, 2006



you just knew that this was coming... didnt you! LOL

looks like 93L wants to spend a day in the bahammas to decide what it wants to do......

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
700. Tazmanian
1:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
wow thats looking good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
699. StormJunkie
1:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Morning thel...Looks like there is a chance that 93 will be sitting right in our back yard (literally) in a couple of days. Should be interesting to watch. Reminds me a little of Gaston..Not track wise, just formation and likely intensity.

Quick Links-Easily find the best forecast models, imagery, and other tracking info for the new invests.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
697. Tazmanian
1:52 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
her the photo for you i hop this helps
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
696. Thundercloud01221991
1:52 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Or TD 5 if the storm off the Florida Coast forms
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
695. Skyepony (Mod)
1:51 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Hobe~ Link They got some info on 94L up now.

Nash ~ 92L already crapped out, is no longer an invest.

That blob of rain right off the east coast needs to move on so I can go haul some hay!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
694. Randrewl
1:51 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Navy
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31581
693. Tazmanian
1:50 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
look at 94L It is already at 30 kts (35 mph) and 1008 mb. wow TD 4 on the way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
692. EnglishGuy
1:50 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
How did you get the navy site image guys? I click on the 94L link, but I don't get an image,
691. StormJunkie
1:50 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Can not find 94L on the NRL imagery....Where the hell is it?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
690. thelmores
1:49 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
navy site
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
688. thelmores
1:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
boy.... since the sun came up.....93L seems to have hit stride..... convection is starting to fire up pretty good!

that giant "blob" just off the fla. coast looks like it is being "sucked up" by 93L.....

i woulnt be a bit surprised to see a depression today from 93L..... i just have a "feeling" that 93L is going to fire up some major convection in the coming hours, and i agree with Gulf, convection getting closer to the center.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
686. EnglishGuy
1:47 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
The water vapor imagery shows a moist atmosphere surrounding 94L- this could mean the thunderstorms will hold together with this system, unlike the previous waves which looked impressive coming off the coast, but rapidly dried up.
685. nash28
1:46 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Boy, we'll all be popping the Xanex if all three of our "possible" systems crap out come the diurnal minimum.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
684. refill
1:46 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
I dont know if I am right but the model text info for 94L shows that it will go to the north...
683. Randrewl
1:44 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
HobeSoundShudders...Morning. No panic here but it is wild with this circulation just east of us that popped up. Turn on your Melbourne radar...longrange.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31581
682. PensacolaDoug
1:44 PM GMT on August 14, 2006
Good morning all. I do a lot of lurking and only a little posting. What are the odds of the one off florida migrating into the gulf?
Anyone care to speculate?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.