Another quiet weekend in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2006

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High wind shear and dry air continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic. There is a tropical wave about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Island that has a surface circulation, but this wave is embedded in a very large area of dry air, and thunderstorm activity is presently very limited. The computer models are indicating the possiblity of some development off the coast of the Carolinas by Tuesday, but any storm here is likely to be a threat only to Bermuda. The long range 2-week GFS forecast calls for a continuation of the current pattern, with high wind shear remaining as a major deterrent to tropical cyclone formation until the end of August.

Since there's not much of interest to report in my blog, let me call attention to another blog on the site. Margie Kieper is putting together a very ambitious series of blogs documenting the effect of Katrina's storm surge. Today, she documents the damage at Grand Island, LA. Each day for the next 20 days she'll march down the coast to Mobile, AL, showing what happened to each 10-mile long section.


Figure 1. Damage to Grand Island, LA in the wake of Katrina. Image credit: NOAA.

I'll be back with an update on Sunday.
Jeff Masters

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889. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:18 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
try to keep this short. randrewl may GOD bless you saw your response to Chaser,
good to have another christian brother on this blog. Also today is Sunday so church is near.
For info purposes adrian asked for these constant pics of the same images to stop and also thier is a couple of
people constantly posting long italicized links. maybe just post the link and let the people decide if they want to see it or not.
have aa nice Lords day Billy
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
888. SLU
2:11 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
WE NOW HAVE INVEST 92L AND 93L

off to the new blog now
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
887. Skyepony (Mod)
2:10 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
That's sweet Randrewl, but friendly debate can be more fun & productive or are you thinking maybe west now too?? lol. Ya'll have fun & stick to the weather. I don't wanna come back to football, tunnels & ya'lls personal lives. There's other blogs on WU for all that:) Leave some thoughts on the strength of that ULL too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
886. Thundercloud01221991
2:05 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
New Blog
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
885. Skyepony (Mod)
2:04 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Ships & bouys E of FL

Ships & Buoys (well no ships at the moment) around the Lesser Antillies blob. (pressures are a little tiny bit lower here) don't have time to get into checking the wind directions.

Off to play.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
883. stormwatcher247
2:00 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
What's that in the islands?
882. amazinwxman
1:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Thundercloud watch your mouth! Now we all know TWC deserves to call themselves the Hurricane authority and with good cause LOL
881. Tazmanian
1:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
: Skyepony it has a vary nic spin to it and deep t-storms as well what wait for 2hrs to see what it dos
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
879. Skyepony (Mod)
1:57 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Quikscat E of Fl
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
878. Thundercloud01221991
1:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
TWC sais no tropical development for a while the only area they are watching is the one off the Carolina coast but they said it is not likely but we all know about TWC
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
877. Skyepony (Mod)
1:52 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Ike~ I had trouble getting in there earlier. It's good now. I'm with Taz, just watched the 45 after frame load on the rainbow. Got a little blob down there.

Randrewl~ I was glad to see Monday being the day to watch for something off the east coast form. They moved it up a little. This way maybe we can resolve our differences a little sooner...lol. West I say has a good chance!

The ULL above PR...Moveing NNE...Does it look like it is weakening??? Or is the dry air there fooling my eye? GOES-east WV
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
876. StormJunkie
1:51 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Pressures have been fairly low along that trough the past few days. It will be interesting to see what happens though.

I am certainly keeping an eye on that area.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
875. SLU
1:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Well great then ... I WIN

You can't respond
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
874. IKE
1:46 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
That trough off of the east coast of Florida is dropping SE and thunderstorms are firing up. I noticed pressures in the Bahamas are rather low....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
873. IKE
1:44 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Now they are....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
872. IKE
1:43 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
It's from about 12 hours ago. None of them are updating.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
871. Tazmanian
1:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
no it not the date says aung 13 on it that is todays photo
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
870. SLU
1:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Posted By: SLU at 1:20 PM GMT on August 13, 2006.
Next question Rand ...

How do you defend the "low-latitude" statement when the majority of the systems which form in that part of the Atlantic form between 10n and 15n?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
869. IKE
1:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
That's an old satellite TAZ.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
868. IKE
1:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Can't get an updated satellite.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
867. Tazmanian
1:36 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
look at the Leeward Islands see a nic sinp a deep t-storms?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
864. Skyepony (Mod)
1:26 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Here's the middle of the night MLB disscussion involving possible development east of Fl.
MON...OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM WRF AND GFS TO EUROS ALL INDICATE SFC
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWD SAGGING FRONTAL TROUGH NR STATE. GFS LIES
FARTHEST EAST OF SUITE WITH EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM E OF STATE
AND A N MOVEMENT EARLY IN WEEK. THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
RESULTING FROM FEEDBACK OF INITIALIZED STORM CLUSTER OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. WRF AND EUROS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE
FROM N BAHAMAS TO COASTAL FL AROUND MON WITH SLOW DRIFT WWD
AFTERWARD. RESULTING LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
POSSIBLE SYS AFTER COORD W/JAX LEADS TO SPATIALLY CONSERVATIVE GFS
WHICH ALLOWS FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON SFC GENESIS CLOSER TO
AREA SHOULD IT OCCUR. WITH RATHER HIGH MOISTURE AND W/NW FLOW ALOFT
FAVORING EAST PENINSULA FOR COVERAGE WL KEEP LIKELY PRECIP IN FCST
ACROSS AREA.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
862. Tazmanian
1:24 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
hey have you all see that nic sinp in the blod down there by the Leeward Islands? and t-storm and deep t-storm been arond all night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
860. Thundercloud01221991
1:21 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
OK Ike and CycloneBuster lets drop the subject
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
858. SLU
1:20 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Next question Rand ...

How do you defend the "low-latitude" statement when the majority of the systems which form in that part of the Atlantic form between 10n and 15n?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
857. IKE
1:19 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 8:16 AM CDT on August 13, 2006.
These are pipelines not tunnels!


Oops......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
856. SLU
1:17 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
well south of the low


Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
855. Thundercloud01221991
1:17 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
The wave that is currently affecting Barbados is on floater 2
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
853. IKE
1:15 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 8:09 AM CDT on August 13, 2006.
Lets keep sex, age, color,religion etc. etc. out of this!!


But you left one out....tunnels!!!!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
851. SLU
1:12 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Posted By: Randrewl at 11:23 AM GMT on August 13, 2006.
bajelayman...Nice to hear your report. This wave is tangled up with the ITCZ influence right now. Very low latitude....Not conducive for development.



Nonsence Randrewl ...

The wave is located near 13n which is NOT too low-latitude for development to take place. I don't see where the ITCZ influence that you are talking about is. The only factors which will influence development are dry air and shear which the system appears to be handling just fine ATTM.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
849. IKE
1:05 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
That ULL that was suppose to cross Florida appears to have gotten caught up in that pesky trough off of the east coast and is moving NE.

Better watch that trough...dropping south..with high pressure predicted to build back in.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
847. ricderr
1:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
sorry cb...i'm done....when you say you've lied about your age....now you're 10 again...either wsy..where there is no trust..why bother...


Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22034
845. IKE
1:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
makes sense....talks about tunnels that ain't happenin...but won't give his/her age......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
844. StormJunkie
1:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
Morning all. Just recovering from the B day yesterday...


CB 40 miles wide at what average depth?

It is also good to know that we are talking about only helping the E coast since you are gonna drop it in at Key West....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
843. IKE
12:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
The heck with the tunnels...your age?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
842. IKE
12:58 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
How old are you cyclone?

I'm 48.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
840. ricderr
12:57 PM GMT on August 13, 2006
well..to be 10 and a dreamer about something unrealistic..is a good thing..to be 20..and dreaming about the same thing...is sad
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22034

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.