Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2006
High wind shear and dry air continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic. There is a tropical wave about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Island that has a surface circulation, but this wave is embedded in a very large area of dry air, and thunderstorm activity is presently very limited. The computer models are indicating the possiblity of some development off the coast of the Carolinas by Tuesday, but any storm here is likely to be a threat only to Bermuda. The long range 2-week GFS forecast calls for a continuation of the current pattern, with high wind shear remaining as a major deterrent to tropical cyclone formation until the end of August.
Since there's not much of interest to report in my blog, let me call attention to another blog on the site. Margie Kieper is putting together a very ambitious series of blogs documenting the effect of Katrina's storm surge. Today, she documents the damage at Grand Island, LA. Each day for the next 20 days she'll march down the coast to Mobile, AL, showing what happened to each 10-mile long section.
Figure 1. Damage to Grand Island, LA in the wake of Katrina. Image credit: NOAA.
I'll be back with an update on Sunday.
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